The Miami Heat (3-4) visit the Denver Nuggets (5-3) in the NBA this Friday, which is set to tip off at 9:00 p.m. from the Ball Arena in Denver. The game will be broadcast on NBA League Pass.
The Nuggets are 3.5-point home favorites over the Heat on the spread (Nuggets -3.5), with the over/under currently at 222.5 points. The Nuggets are -160 favorites on the moneyline to win outright, while Miami is +135 to pull off the upset.
Let's dive into my Heat vs. Nuggets predictions and my NBA picks for Friday, November 8.
Heat vs. Nuggets Picks, Predictions
Moneyline
With the Heat off to another slow start at 3-4, I can only look to the Nuggets in this spot. It's worth noting that Denver is on an 8-0 run against Miami during the regular season.
Spread
I have a slight lean on the Nuggets, as my power ratings have them as a -4.1 favorite, which aligns with the current number at most sportsbooks. However, FanDuel is hanging Denver at -3.5, so be sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Over/Under
My best bet for this game is to bet the over at 222.5 total points, after uncovering a radical change in the Nuggets' playing style this season.
Pick: Over 222.5 Points
Heat vs. Nuggets Odds
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 222.5 -110 / -110 | +130 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 222.5 -110 / -110 | -155 |
- Heat vs. Nuggets Odds: Nuggets -3.5
- Heat vs. Nuggets Over/Under: 222.5 points
- Heat vs. Nuggets Moneyline: Nuggets -155, Heat +130
Heat vs. Nuggets Preview
On Wednesday, the short-handed Nuggets pulled off a stunning 124-122 victory at home to hand the Thunder its first loss. Denver won outright as a seven-point underdog despite being without two starters, Jamal Murray (concussion) and Aaron Gordon (calf).
Russell Westbrook replaced Murray in the starting lineup and led the team in scoring with 29, while Peyton Watson filled in for Gordon and chipped in with 10 points.
Denver's victory was awe-inspiring because one of the criticisms about the team entering the season was that it lacked depth. The good news for the Nuggets is that Murray could return to the lineup on Friday night after missing their last three games.
However, Gordon still feels the effects of his calf strain and won't feature in the contest.
The Nuggets certainly deserve plenty of credit for being able to navigate this recent injury spell. There were already a few groans about the team after its 0-2 start on the year. Those worries felt even more justified when you factor in the Nuggets' second-round exit in the playoffs to the Timberwolves.
Denver's lack of depth got exposed against Minnesota. With Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Reggie Jackson moving on to different teams, there was a legitimate concern about whether the Nuggets had done enough in the offseason to strengthen their bench.
Although questions still remain about what Westbrook can offer at this stage of his career in his 17th season, he seemed to turn back the clock with a vintage performance against the Thunder and even found his stroke from beyond the arc and knocked down three of his four 3-point attempts.
One thing that Westbrook brings straightaway is energy on the court. And given his influence on the team, one has to wonder if the Nuggets have modified their playing style to better suit the former MVP.
After ranking 26th in pace last season with 97.43 possessions per game, Denver is now eighth in that category, up to 101.30. This change in approach is something that certainly bears watching, as the new-look Nuggets are firmly on the radar of over-bettors.
Heat vs. Nuggets Prediction
The Western Conference looks loaded again, as 11 teams have a record of .500 or better compared to only four teams in the East. Miami is currently on a six-game road trip that began out west against Phoenix. Both teams combined to score 227 points to finish over the total 222.5.
Teams in the West are 27-11 (71.1%) straight up in non-conference games and 16-6 (72.7%) when they play at home.
Given the quality in the West, I suspect those teams are more likely to dictate the flow of these games in non-conference matchups, especially when they're playing at home.
Thus, the Heat could find itself needing to match Denver's tempo, making the total an intriguing option to go over 222.5 points.
Best Bet: Over 222.5 (-110)
Heat vs Nuggets Same Game Parlay
Our NBA betting expert and Buckets podcast host, Matt Moore, also likes the Heat first half team total over in this matchup at 55.5 points. When combined into a same game parlay alongside Over 222.5, they payout comes out to +142 on DraftKings.
Heat vs. Nuggets Starting Lineups
Heat Starting Lineup
PG: Terry Rozier
SG: Tyler Herro
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Nikola Jovic
C: Bam Adebayo
Nuggets Starting Lineup
PG: Jamal Murray (doubtful), Russell Westbrook
SG: Christian Braun
SF: Michael Porter Jr.
PF: Aaron Gordon (out), Julian Strawther/Peyton Watson
C: Nikola Jokic
Heat vs. Nuggets Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Friday, November 8 |
| Time: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | NBA League Pass |
