Best Bets Across Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1 & La Liga, Including Valencia vs Sevilla

We've reached the stretch run of the club soccer calendar with the Bundesliga and Ligue 1 titles still up for grabs. There aren't too many huge matches other than PSG vs Lens in France, which could wrap up the title for PSG. However, that doesn't mean there isn't any value across the continent.

If you'd like to see my projections for the Premier League, along with all three European competitions (Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League), you can find them here.

If you'd like to listen to the audio form of this article, I am also part of the Wondergoal Podcast with my co-hosts Michael Leboff and Anthony Dabbundo.

If you'd like to see picks from me for all European leagues, you can follow them in the Action Network App.

Bundesliga

Projections

Koln vs Mainz 

There is no reason why Koln should be a pick’em at home against Mainz.

Mainz have been running really hot as of late and over-performing against their expected metrics. Mainz are unbeaten in their last eight matches and they have a +11 actual goal differential, but their xG differential is only +2.6. There is also a huge difference between Mainz’s performances at home versus on the road. At home, Mainz have a +3.3 xGD, but away from home they have a -3.6 xGD.

Koln have under-performed all season long and it's because of their defense that has run ridiculously cold, allowing 45 goals off of 34.3 xG. The reason for that is because of their goalkeeper Marvin Schwäbe who has a -8.1 post-shot xG +/-. Last season he was +4.4, so positive regression is coming for both him and the Koln defense that is fifth in the Bundesliga in npxG allowed per 90 minutes.

I have Koln projected as a +106 favorite at home, so I like the value on them at a PK.

Pick: Koln – Draw No Bet (-109)

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Serie A

Projections

Lecce vs Sampdoria

Can I interest you in the most boring match of the weekend across Europe?

Lecce isarea very interesting team because they do one thing well, which is a mid-block defense. For the season, Lecce are only allowing 1.13 npXG per 90 minutes. They’re top seven in shots allowed per 90 minutes, big scoring chances allowed and final third to box entry conversion rate.

They’ve struggled defensively when they have to play some of the top teams in Italy, but in matches against the bottom half of the table, Lecce are only allowing 0.77 xG per match. They are also dead last in Serie A offensively, averaging just 0.81 npxG per 90 minutes.

Sampdoria are just as bad offensively. They're only averaging 0.89 npxG per 90 minutes and have created the second-fewest big scoring chances in Serie A. They're also 18th in Offensive PPDA, which is not good news going up against a good pressing team like Lecce.

The total for this match is set at two goals for a reason, but I am going to play both teams to score – no.

Pick: Both Teams to Score – No (-130) 

La Liga

Projections

Valencia vs Sevilla

Valencia have been running pretty cold recently and are currently fighting for their lives to get out of the relegation zone. 

They're coming off a 2-1 loss at Almeria where they won the xG battle 1.3 to 0.9 and a 1-1 draw with Rayo Vallecano where they also won the xG battle 2.3 to 0.8.

Valencia are fourth in PPDA, second in box entries allowed, third in final third entries allowed and No. 1 in crosses allowed into their penalty area. Sevilla are now on their third manager this season, but the DNA of this team is still that of that under Julian Lopetegui, as they want to get the ball out wide and swing in a ton of crosses to the penalty area.

Sevilla are in a sandwich spot between Europa League matches against Manchester United, but in the first leg on Thursday they started 31-year old Erik Lamela up top.

Defense has been the main issue that has plagued Sevilla all season long. They're 17th in npxG allowed per 90 minutes in La Liga and oddly enough are having an incredibly difficult time defending crosses, which is bad news against Valencia.

I have Valencia projected as a -106 favorite, so I love the value on them at +120 and would play it down to +109.

Pick: Valencia ML (+120) 

Ligue 1

Projections

Clermont Foot vs Angers

Angers are at the foot of the Ligue 1 table, but they finally started to show some life the past few matches, drawing with Nice and beating Lille at home. With Ligue 1 going to 18 clubs next season, 18th place would get them into the relegation playoffs and a chance at staying up in the top flight of French football.

Angers are a team that has run so incredibly bad all season long and are one of the biggest positive regression candidates across Europe. For the season, they have a -40 goal differential, but only a -14.6 xGD. They are pretty reliant on creating one or two big chances and set pieces, which hasn't really worked out for them on paper. However, they are the No. 1 team in France in xG per set piece.

Defensively, they are not as bad as their overall tally of 61 goals allowed indicates. They actually have done a good job defending their penalty area, allowing only the 11th-most final third and box entries.

With Angers finally starting to show some life, I like them +0.5 at +102 and would play it up to -108.

Pick: Angers +0.5 (+102)

English Championship

Projections

Reading vs Burnley

Burnley have already secured promotion to the Premier League and all credit is due to Vincent Kompany for completely changing the culture and style of play from what they were for so long under Sean Dyche. They are one of the most possession-dominant teams in the Championship, averaging 63.6% possession.

While all that is very impressive, let's also not sit here and act like Burnley haven't run like gods offensively. They have scored 78 goals off of 56.8 xG this season. That is insane over-performance. For the season they have a +0.56 xGD, so to be laying a full goal on the road is nuts here.

Reading just sacked their manager Paul Ince after a winless stretch of nine matches, so we are getting Reading at the bottom of their market value with some new manager bounce.

I only have Burnley projected at -116, so I like the value on Reading +1 at -115.

Pick: Reading +1 (-115)

Dutch Eredivisie

Projections

Ajax vs Emmen

In a high-event style league like the Eredivisie, Emmen are actually one of the lower-event style teams. They play out of a 4-2-3-1 and even recently switched to a 4-4-2 in their last match against NEC Nijmegen to give them more defensive structure.

They're only conceding 1.38 xG per match and have been playing under the same manager since 2016, so it's a club that has structure instead of other relegation-type clubs that in a constant state of flux. They also went through a period at the beginning of the season with an awful goalkeeper, as Eric Oelschlägel was historically bad. Since then, Mickey van der Hart has come in and stabilized things in net for Emmen.

With that being said, this is one of the worst offensive sides in the Netherlands. They average 1.07 xG per 90 minutes, so it's hard to see them putting three in the back of the net like the last time they faced Ajax.

Ajax have the best underlying metrics in the Eredivisie with a +41.1 xGD in 28 matches. While their offense once again is putting up gaudy numbers, their defense has been the best in the Eredivisie, allowing just 0.82 xG per 90 minutes. The reason for that is because they are an incredibly possession reliant. They're averaging 66.6% possession, 4.3 passes per sequence and have 162 build up attacks compared to just 48 direct attacks – all of which are the best in the Eredivisie.

So, with Ajax facing one of the better defenses in this league and given the fact that this is also a look ahead spot for them with a trip to PSV coming up next weekend, I like the value on the under.

Pick: Under 4 (-127)