Latest MLB Betting Picks

Bet to -140

The Blue Jays are in desperate need of a win after starting the second half of the season 1-4. Brayden Fisher will open the game for Toronto, with Spencer Miles to follow. Fisher will likely only pitch an inning or two, so I won’t focus too much on him. Spencer Miles has been great through 64 innings pitched this season. He currently owns a 3.52 ERA with a 3.21 xERA, 3.10 FIP, and 3.22 xFIP. These are very solid numbers, and his peripherals are equally as impressive. He has been elite at keeping the ball on the ground, owning a 54.1% ground ball rate. That is one of the best marks in the sport. He is also avoiding barrels and isn’t getting hit hard. These are all signs that his current success isn’t a fluke. After Fisher and Miles, Toronto will turn to a completely rested Blue Jays bullpen. Hoffman, Rogers, and Varland will all be available. These three make up one of the best bullpen trios in MLB. The Toronto pitching staff has a great setup tonight. While the Blue Jays offense remains non-existent, I do think they can find some success tonight. Griffin Jax remains a regression candidate, as he owns a 4.08 ERA with a 5.32 xERA and 4.42 FIP. His .274 xBA is very concerning despite him having good stuff. Jax is also getting barreled 10.1% of the time, and he has been a much worse pitcher on the road. The Blue Jays offense also knows him well. In 74 plate appearances, they have a .262 xBA with a .544 xSLG against Jax. Our model makes the fair moneyline for this game Toronto -141, so I’ll gladly jump in at -104. It’s now or never for this Blue Jays team. Give me Toronto to win at home tonight.