Latest NFL Betting Picks
Brandon Anderson
Last 30d: 52-86-0 (+15.8u)
Over 65.5+2500
CLE
@
NYJ
0.1u
11/09 6:00 PM
This looks like one of the ugliest games of the year — two bad, tanking teams that probably both prefer to lose in a windy, rainy game with a line that flipped from Jets -2.5 to Browns -2.5 after New York traded away its two best defensive players.
Both offenses have been terrible all season, and both teams are coming out of the bye. Typically, trends tell us to bet the under there, and this thing screams ugly, rainy, unwatchable 13-9 game at first glance.
Surprise! We're going over, and we're taking the escalator.
When both teams are rested in a game with a total under 40, games are actually 8-2 to the over in the last two decades, going over by 6.8 PPG, almost a full touchdown. When the total is 38 or below like this one, they're 5-0 to the over with at least 44 points in every game and an average of 50.6 PPG.
That's a tiny sample, but dig a little deeper and you find some glimmers of hope.
As ugly as Browns games have been, they've still hit at least 37 points all but three times this season, including three at 44+ and a 58. And though the Jets have memorably awful games with 19 and 24 total points, the rest of their games are at 40 or higher, and the average total in those games finished at 57.7 PPG with total scores of 56, 59, 66, and 77 — forgot about those weird Jets shootouts, didn't you?
The Jets defense has been terrible, so that's part of it. New York ranks 30th in DVOA defensively, and that was before trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams.
The Browns enter this game with a new play caller in OC Tommy Rees too. That's an unknown, but it can hardly get worse for this Browns offense, so maybe Rees has some magic up his sleeve against a beatable defense.
The other side of the ball is a tougher sell, since the Browns defense has looked so good. But check the home-road splits.
Cleveland has allowed 11.0 PPG in three home games, and not exactly easy opposition: Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Mike McDaniel's Dolphins. But on the road, the Browns have allowed 32.5 PPG, a massive difference.
Weird, right? But here's what's weirder. Two years ago, when Jim Schwartz's defense was elite, it had the exact same splits: 13.9 PPG allowed at home but 31.3 PPG on the road.
Jets games are also 11-4 to the over in their last 15.
I've seen enough. Give me the over 37.5 — but we're not stopping there.
Ugly unders are a sweat, because any score at any time threatens our total. But those games can go way over, because when the scoring does start, it can fly over the number in a hurry. That's right, we're taking an ugly Browns-Jets over escalator.
Start with over 43.5 at +220, right below that key totals number. Even the Browns have hit that number four times already this season in games.
Then keep going all the up — and I do mean all the way. Sprinkle over 49.5 at +390, over 55.5 at +830, over 59.5 at +1300, and over 65.5 at +2500, all at FanDuel.
With any luck, this will turn into one of those goofy 39-38 shootouts that leads the Sunday recap. Everyone else will be shocked. We'll just be counting our winnings.
Over 59.5+1300
CLE
@NYJ
0.1u
11/09 6:00 PM
This looks like one of the ugliest games of the year — two bad, tanking teams that probably both prefer to lose in a windy, rainy game with a line that flipped from Jets -2.5 to Browns -2.5 after New York traded away its two best defensive players.
Both offenses have been terrible all season, and both teams are coming out of the bye. Typically, trends tell us to bet the under there, and this thing screams ugly, rainy, unwatchable 13-9 game at first glance.
Surprise! We're going over, and we're taking the escalator.
When both teams are rested in a game with a total under 40, games are actually 8-2 to the over in the last two decades, going over by 6.8 PPG, almost a full touchdown. When the total is 38 or below like this one, they're 5-0 to the over with at least 44 points in every game and an average of 50.6 PPG.
That's a tiny sample, but dig a little deeper and you find some glimmers of hope.
As ugly as Browns games have been, they've still hit at least 37 points all but three times this season, including three at 44+ and a 58. And though the Jets have memorably awful games with 19 and 24 total points, the rest of their games are at 40 or higher, and the average total in those games finished at 57.7 PPG with total scores of 56, 59, 66, and 77 — forgot about those weird Jets shootouts, didn't you?
The Jets defense has been terrible, so that's part of it. New York ranks 30th in DVOA defensively, and that was before trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams.
The Browns enter this game with a new play caller in OC Tommy Rees too. That's an unknown, but it can hardly get worse for this Browns offense, so maybe Rees has some magic up his sleeve against a beatable defense.
The other side of the ball is a tougher sell, since the Browns defense has looked so good. But check the home-road splits.
Cleveland has allowed 11.0 PPG in three home games, and not exactly easy opposition: Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Mike McDaniel's Dolphins. But on the road, the Browns have allowed 32.5 PPG, a massive difference.
Weird, right? But here's what's weirder. Two years ago, when Jim Schwartz's defense was elite, it had the exact same splits: 13.9 PPG allowed at home but 31.3 PPG on the road.
Jets games are also 11-4 to the over in their last 15.
I've seen enough. Give me the over 37.5 — but we're not stopping there.
Ugly unders are a sweat, because any score at any time threatens our total. But those games can go way over, because when the scoring does start, it can fly over the number in a hurry. That's right, we're taking an ugly Browns-Jets over escalator.
Start with over 43.5 at +220, right below that key totals number. Even the Browns have hit that number four times already this season in games.
Then keep going all the up — and I do mean all the way. Sprinkle over 49.5 at +390, over 55.5 at +830, over 59.5 at +1300, and over 65.5 at +2500, all at FanDuel.
With any luck, this will turn into one of those goofy 39-38 shootouts that leads the Sunday recap. Everyone else will be shocked. We'll just be counting our winnings.
Over 55.5+830
CLE
@NYJ
0.1u
11/09 6:00 PM
This looks like one of the ugliest games of the year — two bad, tanking teams that probably both prefer to lose in a windy, rainy game with a line that flipped from Jets -2.5 to Browns -2.5 after New York traded away its two best defensive players.
Both offenses have been terrible all season, and both teams are coming out of the bye. Typically, trends tell us to bet the under there, and this thing screams ugly, rainy, unwatchable 13-9 game at first glance.
Surprise! We're going over, and we're taking the escalator.
When both teams are rested in a game with a total under 40, games are actually 8-2 to the over in the last two decades, going over by 6.8 PPG, almost a full touchdown. When the total is 38 or below like this one, they're 5-0 to the over with at least 44 points in every game and an average of 50.6 PPG.
That's a tiny sample, but dig a little deeper and you find some glimmers of hope.
As ugly as Browns games have been, they've still hit at least 37 points all but three times this season, including three at 44+ and a 58. And though the Jets have memorably awful games with 19 and 24 total points, the rest of their games are at 40 or higher, and the average total in those games finished at 57.7 PPG with total scores of 56, 59, 66, and 77 — forgot about those weird Jets shootouts, didn't you?
The Jets defense has been terrible, so that's part of it. New York ranks 30th in DVOA defensively, and that was before trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams.
The Browns enter this game with a new play caller in OC Tommy Rees too. That's an unknown, but it can hardly get worse for this Browns offense, so maybe Rees has some magic up his sleeve against a beatable defense.
The other side of the ball is a tougher sell, since the Browns defense has looked so good. But check the home-road splits.
Cleveland has allowed 11.0 PPG in three home games, and not exactly easy opposition: Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Mike McDaniel's Dolphins. But on the road, the Browns have allowed 32.5 PPG, a massive difference.
Weird, right? But here's what's weirder. Two years ago, when Jim Schwartz's defense was elite, it had the exact same splits: 13.9 PPG allowed at home but 31.3 PPG on the road.
Jets games are also 11-4 to the over in their last 15.
I've seen enough. Give me the over 37.5 — but we're not stopping there.
Ugly unders are a sweat, because any score at any time threatens our total. But those games can go way over, because when the scoring does start, it can fly over the number in a hurry. That's right, we're taking an ugly Browns-Jets over escalator.
Start with over 43.5 at +220, right below that key totals number. Even the Browns have hit that number four times already this season in games.
Then keep going all the up — and I do mean all the way. Sprinkle over 49.5 at +390, over 55.5 at +830, over 59.5 at +1300, and over 65.5 at +2500, all at FanDuel.
With any luck, this will turn into one of those goofy 39-38 shootouts that leads the Sunday recap. Everyone else will be shocked. We'll just be counting our winnings.
Over 49.5+390
CLE
@NYJ
0.1u
11/09 6:00 PM
This looks like one of the ugliest games of the year — two bad, tanking teams that probably both prefer to lose in a windy, rainy game with a line that flipped from Jets -2.5 to Browns -2.5 after New York traded away its two best defensive players.
Both offenses have been terrible all season, and both teams are coming out of the bye. Typically, trends tell us to bet the under there, and this thing screams ugly, rainy, unwatchable 13-9 game at first glance.
Surprise! We're going over, and we're taking the escalator.
When both teams are rested in a game with a total under 40, games are actually 8-2 to the over in the last two decades, going over by 6.8 PPG, almost a full touchdown. When the total is 38 or below like this one, they're 5-0 to the over with at least 44 points in every game and an average of 50.6 PPG.
That's a tiny sample, but dig a little deeper and you find some glimmers of hope.
As ugly as Browns games have been, they've still hit at least 37 points all but three times this season, including three at 44+ and a 58. And though the Jets have memorably awful games with 19 and 24 total points, the rest of their games are at 40 or higher, and the average total in those games finished at 57.7 PPG with total scores of 56, 59, 66, and 77 — forgot about those weird Jets shootouts, didn't you?
The Jets defense has been terrible, so that's part of it. New York ranks 30th in DVOA defensively, and that was before trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams.
The Browns enter this game with a new play caller in OC Tommy Rees too. That's an unknown, but it can hardly get worse for this Browns offense, so maybe Rees has some magic up his sleeve against a beatable defense.
The other side of the ball is a tougher sell, since the Browns defense has looked so good. But check the home-road splits.
Cleveland has allowed 11.0 PPG in three home games, and not exactly easy opposition: Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Mike McDaniel's Dolphins. But on the road, the Browns have allowed 32.5 PPG, a massive difference.
Weird, right? But here's what's weirder. Two years ago, when Jim Schwartz's defense was elite, it had the exact same splits: 13.9 PPG allowed at home but 31.3 PPG on the road.
Jets games are also 11-4 to the over in their last 15.
I've seen enough. Give me the over 37.5 — but we're not stopping there.
Ugly unders are a sweat, because any score at any time threatens our total. But those games can go way over, because when the scoring does start, it can fly over the number in a hurry. That's right, we're taking an ugly Browns-Jets over escalator.
Start with over 43.5 at +220, right below that key totals number. Even the Browns have hit that number four times already this season in games.
Then keep going all the up — and I do mean all the way. Sprinkle over 49.5 at +390, over 55.5 at +830, over 59.5 at +1300, and over 65.5 at +2500, all at FanDuel.
With any luck, this will turn into one of those goofy 39-38 shootouts that leads the Sunday recap. Everyone else will be shocked. We'll just be counting our winnings.
1
Over 43.5+220
CLE
@NYJ
0.25u
11/09 6:00 PM
This looks like one of the ugliest games of the year — two bad, tanking teams that probably both prefer to lose in a windy, rainy game with a line that flipped from Jets -2.5 to Browns -2.5 after New York traded away its two best defensive players.
Both offenses have been terrible all season, and both teams are coming out of the bye. Typically, trends tell us to bet the under there, and this thing screams ugly, rainy, unwatchable 13-9 game at first glance.
Surprise! We're going over, and we're taking the escalator.
When both teams are rested in a game with a total under 40, games are actually 8-2 to the over in the last two decades, going over by 6.8 PPG, almost a full touchdown. When the total is 38 or below like this one, they're 5-0 to the over with at least 44 points in every game and an average of 50.6 PPG.
That's a tiny sample, but dig a little deeper and you find some glimmers of hope.
As ugly as Browns games have been, they've still hit at least 37 points all but three times this season, including three at 44+ and a 58. And though the Jets have memorably awful games with 19 and 24 total points, the rest of their games are at 40 or higher, and the average total in those games finished at 57.7 PPG with total scores of 56, 59, 66, and 77 — forgot about those weird Jets shootouts, didn't you?
The Jets defense has been terrible, so that's part of it. New York ranks 30th in DVOA defensively, and that was before trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams.
The Browns enter this game with a new play caller in OC Tommy Rees too. That's an unknown, but it can hardly get worse for this Browns offense, so maybe Rees has some magic up his sleeve against a beatable defense.
The other side of the ball is a tougher sell, since the Browns defense has looked so good. But check the home-road splits.
Cleveland has allowed 11.0 PPG in three home games, and not exactly easy opposition: Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Mike McDaniel's Dolphins. But on the road, the Browns have allowed 32.5 PPG, a massive difference.
Weird, right? But here's what's weirder. Two years ago, when Jim Schwartz's defense was elite, it had the exact same splits: 13.9 PPG allowed at home but 31.3 PPG on the road.
Jets games are also 11-4 to the over in their last 15.
I've seen enough. Give me the over 37.5 — but we're not stopping there.
Ugly unders are a sweat, because any score at any time threatens our total. But those games can go way over, because when the scoring does start, it can fly over the number in a hurry. That's right, we're taking an ugly Browns-Jets over escalator.
Start with over 43.5 at +220, right below that key totals number. Even the Browns have hit that number four times already this season in games.
Then keep going all the up — and I do mean all the way. Sprinkle over 49.5 at +390, over 55.5 at +830, over 59.5 at +1300, and over 65.5 at +2500, all at FanDuel.
With any luck, this will turn into one of those goofy 39-38 shootouts that leads the Sunday recap. Everyone else will be shocked. We'll just be counting our winnings.
1
Over 37.5-105
CLE
@NYJ
1.25u
11/09 6:00 PM
This looks like one of the ugliest games of the year — two bad, tanking teams that probably both prefer to lose in a windy, rainy game with a line that flipped from Jets -2.5 to Browns -2.5 after New York traded away its two best defensive players.
Both offenses have been terrible all season, and both teams are coming out of the bye. Typically, trends tell us to bet the under there, and this thing screams ugly, rainy, unwatchable 13-9 game at first glance.
Surprise! We're going over, and we're taking the escalator.
When both teams are rested in a game with a total under 40, games are actually 8-2 to the over in the last two decades, going over by 6.8 PPG, almost a full touchdown. When the total is 38 or below like this one, they're 5-0 to the over with at least 44 points in every game and an average of 50.6 PPG.
That's a tiny sample, but dig a little deeper and you find some glimmers of hope.
As ugly as Browns games have been, they've still hit at least 37 points all but three times this season, including three at 44+ and a 58. And though the Jets have memorably awful games with 19 and 24 total points, the rest of their games are at 40 or higher, and the average total in those games finished at 57.7 PPG with total scores of 56, 59, 66, and 77 — forgot about those weird Jets shootouts, didn't you?
The Jets defense has been terrible, so that's part of it. New York ranks 30th in DVOA defensively, and that was before trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams.
The Browns enter this game with a new play caller in OC Tommy Rees too. That's an unknown, but it can hardly get worse for this Browns offense, so maybe Rees has some magic up his sleeve against a beatable defense.
The other side of the ball is a tougher sell, since the Browns defense has looked so good. But check the home-road splits.
Cleveland has allowed 11.0 PPG in three home games, and not exactly easy opposition: Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Mike McDaniel's Dolphins. But on the road, the Browns have allowed 32.5 PPG, a massive difference.
Weird, right? But here's what's weirder. Two years ago, when Jim Schwartz's defense was elite, it had the exact same splits: 13.9 PPG allowed at home but 31.3 PPG on the road.
Jets games are also 11-4 to the over in their last 15.
I've seen enough. Give me the over 37.5 — but we're not stopping there.
Ugly unders are a sweat, because any score at any time threatens our total. But those games can go way over, because when the scoring does start, it can fly over the number in a hurry. That's right, we're taking an ugly Browns-Jets over escalator.
Start with over 43.5 at +220, right below that key totals number. Even the Browns have hit that number four times already this season in games.
Then keep going all the up — and I do mean all the way. Sprinkle over 49.5 at +390, over 55.5 at +830, over 59.5 at +1300, and over 65.5 at +2500, all at FanDuel.
With any luck, this will turn into one of those goofy 39-38 shootouts that leads the Sunday recap. Everyone else will be shocked. We'll just be counting our winnings.
1
P.Durham Anytime TD Scorer Yes+1000
NE
@
TB
0.25u
11/09 6:00 PM
This is such a fascinating game. Neither team is probably quite as good as its record, and this is an interesting test for Drake Maye against Todd Bowles' rested defense since the Patriots have played such a soft schedule.
It's an intriguing matchup of coaching styles and personnel groupings. Neither team should run much given the strength of both run defenses, but both offenses look likely to be missing key names.
The Bucs are still not sure to get Bucky Irving or Chris Godwin back even after the bye, and the Patriots may be without Kayshon Boutte and Rhamondre Stevenson.
Both defenses have been good against base 11 personnel, but both offenses prefer to play in 12, with multiple tight ends on the field. The Bucs have leapt from 19% in 12 personnel the first five games to 39% the last three games with so many WRs hurt.
That means Cade Otton as usual, but it's also meant an increase in Payne Durham snaps,from around 25% to almost half over the last three games.
You're forgiven if you haven't noticed, though. Durham has one single target all season and didn't catch it, so he's yet to have a reception, despite all that time on the field.
The Patriots are tied for sixth in most TDs allowed to opposing TEs, and it's not exactly a murderer's row — guys like Tommy Tremble, Mitchell Evans, and Taysom Hill.
Could Payne Durham join the list? Let's find out at +1000 for an Anytime TD (bet365) for a guy that should be on the field around half the time in what should be a high-scoring game.
The truth, though, is that I stumbled onto the Durham price while looking for Otton props, because he gets almost the entire TE workload for this team in the passing game.
The Patriots allow the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. They've already allowed at least four receptions to eight different TEs, four in the last three games alone. They've also allowed TE reception games of 8, 9, 10, and 10. Those are usually split up among a few guys, but in Tampa, it's usually just Otton catching passes at TE!
Otton had only six catches the first four games of the season, but he's had 20 in the last four, with 4+ catches in all of them and 5.0 per game. He has at least four catches in over half of his last 20 games, including games with 7, 8, 8, and 9 receptions.
I was hoping to play Otton over 3.5 receptions, but his line posted at 4.5, so I'll skip the median outcome and go for the high-end numbers with Tampa Bay so shorthanded and lacking pass catching options.
Play the Otton receptions escalator: seven catches for +350, eight for +700, and 9+ for +1200, all at bet365.
2
C.Otton 7+ Receptions Yes+350
NE
@TB
0.25u
11/09 6:00 PM
This is such a fascinating game. Neither team is probably quite as good as its record, and this is an interesting test for Drake Maye against Todd Bowles' rested defense since the Patriots have played such a soft schedule.
It's an intriguing matchup of coaching styles and personnel groupings. Neither team should run much given the strength of both run defenses, but both offenses look likely to be missing key names.
The Bucs are still not sure to get Bucky Irving or Chris Godwin back even after the bye, and the Patriots may be without Kayshon Boutte and Rhamondre Stevenson.
Both defenses have been good against base 11 personnel, but both offenses prefer to play in 12, with multiple tight ends on the field. The Bucs have leapt from 19% in 12 personnel the first five games to 39% the last three games with so many WRs hurt.
That means Cade Otton as usual, but it's also meant an increase in Payne Durham snaps,from around 25% to almost half over the last three games.
You're forgiven if you haven't noticed, though. Durham has one single target all season and didn't catch it, so he's yet to have a reception, despite all that time on the field.
The Patriots are tied for sixth in most TDs allowed to opposing TEs, and it's not exactly a murderer's row — guys like Tommy Tremble, Mitchell Evans, and Taysom Hill.
Could Payne Durham join the list? Let's find out at +1000 for an Anytime TD (bet365) for a guy that should be on the field around half the time in what should be a high-scoring game.
The truth, though, is that I stumbled onto the Durham price while looking for Otton props, because he gets almost the entire TE workload for this team in the passing game.
The Patriots allow the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. They've already allowed at least four receptions to eight different TEs, four in the last three games alone. They've also allowed TE reception games of 8, 9, 10, and 10. Those are usually split up among a few guys, but in Tampa, it's usually just Otton catching passes at TE!
Otton had only six catches the first four games of the season, but he's had 20 in the last four, with 4+ catches in all of them and 5.0 per game. He has at least four catches in over half of his last 20 games, including games with 7, 8, 8, and 9 receptions.
I was hoping to play Otton over 3.5 receptions, but his line posted at 4.5, so I'll skip the median outcome and go for the high-end numbers with Tampa Bay so shorthanded and lacking pass catching options.
Play the Otton receptions escalator: seven catches for +350, eight for +700, and 9+ for +1200, all at bet365.
2
C.Otton 8+ Receptions Yes+700
NE
@TB
0.25u
11/09 6:00 PM
This is such a fascinating game. Neither team is probably quite as good as its record, and this is an interesting test for Drake Maye against Todd Bowles' rested defense since the Patriots have played such a soft schedule.
It's an intriguing matchup of coaching styles and personnel groupings. Neither team should run much given the strength of both run defenses, but both offenses look likely to be missing key names.
The Bucs are still not sure to get Bucky Irving or Chris Godwin back even after the bye, and the Patriots may be without Kayshon Boutte and Rhamondre Stevenson.
Both defenses have been good against base 11 personnel, but both offenses prefer to play in 12, with multiple tight ends on the field. The Bucs have leapt from 19% in 12 personnel the first five games to 39% the last three games with so many WRs hurt.
That means Cade Otton as usual, but it's also meant an increase in Payne Durham snaps,from around 25% to almost half over the last three games.
You're forgiven if you haven't noticed, though. Durham has one single target all season and didn't catch it, so he's yet to have a reception, despite all that time on the field.
The Patriots are tied for sixth in most TDs allowed to opposing TEs, and it's not exactly a murderer's row — guys like Tommy Tremble, Mitchell Evans, and Taysom Hill.
Could Payne Durham join the list? Let's find out at +1000 for an Anytime TD (bet365) for a guy that should be on the field around half the time in what should be a high-scoring game.
The truth, though, is that I stumbled onto the Durham price while looking for Otton props, because he gets almost the entire TE workload for this team in the passing game.
The Patriots allow the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. They've already allowed at least four receptions to eight different TEs, four in the last three games alone. They've also allowed TE reception games of 8, 9, 10, and 10. Those are usually split up among a few guys, but in Tampa, it's usually just Otton catching passes at TE!
Otton had only six catches the first four games of the season, but he's had 20 in the last four, with 4+ catches in all of them and 5.0 per game. He has at least four catches in over half of his last 20 games, including games with 7, 8, 8, and 9 receptions.
I was hoping to play Otton over 3.5 receptions, but his line posted at 4.5, so I'll skip the median outcome and go for the high-end numbers with Tampa Bay so shorthanded and lacking pass catching options.
Play the Otton receptions escalator: seven catches for +350, eight for +700, and 9+ for +1200, all at bet365.
2
C.Otton 9+ Receptions Yes+1200
NE
@TB
0.25u
11/09 6:00 PM
This is such a fascinating game. Neither team is probably quite as good as its record, and this is an interesting test for Drake Maye against Todd Bowles' rested defense since the Patriots have played such a soft schedule.
It's an intriguing matchup of coaching styles and personnel groupings. Neither team should run much given the strength of both run defenses, but both offenses look likely to be missing key names.
The Bucs are still not sure to get Bucky Irving or Chris Godwin back even after the bye, and the Patriots may be without Kayshon Boutte and Rhamondre Stevenson.
Both defenses have been good against base 11 personnel, but both offenses prefer to play in 12, with multiple tight ends on the field. The Bucs have leapt from 19% in 12 personnel the first five games to 39% the last three games with so many WRs hurt.
That means Cade Otton as usual, but it's also meant an increase in Payne Durham snaps,from around 25% to almost half over the last three games.
You're forgiven if you haven't noticed, though. Durham has one single target all season and didn't catch it, so he's yet to have a reception, despite all that time on the field.
The Patriots are tied for sixth in most TDs allowed to opposing TEs, and it's not exactly a murderer's row — guys like Tommy Tremble, Mitchell Evans, and Taysom Hill.
Could Payne Durham join the list? Let's find out at +1000 for an Anytime TD (bet365) for a guy that should be on the field around half the time in what should be a high-scoring game.
The truth, though, is that I stumbled onto the Durham price while looking for Otton props, because he gets almost the entire TE workload for this team in the passing game.
The Patriots allow the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. They've already allowed at least four receptions to eight different TEs, four in the last three games alone. They've also allowed TE reception games of 8, 9, 10, and 10. Those are usually split up among a few guys, but in Tampa, it's usually just Otton catching passes at TE!
Otton had only six catches the first four games of the season, but he's had 20 in the last four, with 4+ catches in all of them and 5.0 per game. He has at least four catches in over half of his last 20 games, including games with 7, 8, 8, and 9 receptions.
I was hoping to play Otton over 3.5 receptions, but his line posted at 4.5, so I'll skip the median outcome and go for the high-end numbers with Tampa Bay so shorthanded and lacking pass catching options.
Play the Otton receptions escalator: seven catches for +350, eight for +700, and 9+ for +1200, all at bet365.
1
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