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O.Gordon u7.5 Longest Rush-115

MIA

ATL

0.58u

10/26 5:00 PM

Mike McDaniel said this week he wants to get Jaylen Wright more involved, but with McDaniel coaching for his job right now, that likely won’t come at the expense of De’Von Achane. If anything, it’ll come at Ollie Gordon’s expense. Gordon has been extremely inefficient, averaging just 2.5 yards per carry and functioning mostly as a short-yardage and goal-line back, which rarely produces explosive runs. Even on early downs, he’s averaging 2.5 yards per attempt. If Wright sees additional touches, it’ll likely cut directly into Gordon’s limited workload. With books taking down Gordon’s yardage prop (if you have access to 12.5 or higher, pivot to his yardage prop), this is the best angle to attack. I’m projecting him for 3–3.5 carries and a median long rush around 5.5 yards, giving about a 60% chance he stays under 7.5.

C.Ward o34.5 Pass Att-109

TEN

IND

1.09u

10/26 8:25 PM

Cam Ward over 34.5 Pass Att (-109 at DK ... there's a single 33.5 -130 at MGM but most of the market is at 34.5 so I'll track it at that) Ward's median is 34 this year, but the Titans are 14.5-point dogs to the Colts here so we can expect more than 34 as a starting point here. The Colts actually have a below average time of possession, especially compared to the opponents TEN has faced this year, so there will likley be more time TEN spends with the ball That's in part thanks to the Colts extreme explosiveness with Jonathan Taylor on the ground and several big plays through the air Colts project as the most explosive team overall in Week 8 The Colts have also made a ton of big defensive plays (6th most turnovers forced per game) to leave them with short fields or even defensive scores, handing the ball back to their opponent quickly I'm projecting closer to 36 pass attempts with upside for around 39

CIN -6.5-105

NYJ

CIN

0.55u

10/26 5:00 PM

TB -3.5-110

0.55u

10/26 8:05 PM

K.Monangai o24.5 Rush Yds-115

CHI

BAL

0.29u

10/26 5:00 PM

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

K.Monangai 50+ Rushing Yards Yes+367

CHI

BAL

0.15u

10/26 5:00 PM

Proj closer to +250

K.Monangai 40+ Rushing Yards Yes+206

CHI

BAL

0.3u

10/26 5:00 PM

Proj closer to +140

K.Monangai o24.5 Rush Yds-115

CHI

BAL

0.58u

10/26 5:00 PM

Since the Week 5 bye, the Bears have shifted to a much more run-heavy approach, with their pass rate over expected dropping 6.6%. That shift looks intentional, and Kyle Monangai has been the biggest beneficiary. He was one of my favorite rookies to watch on film heading into the season (very Skattebo-esque with his yards-after-contact ability) and he’s slowly carving out the “David Montgomery role” in this offense. With D’Andre Swift questionable (groin) and Roschon Johnson ruled out, Monangai’s workload should continue to grow. The Lamar Jackson news also swung the spread to Bears +1.5, making it much more likely they can stick with a balanced, run-heavy game plan. The Ravens have been vulnerable to inside runs, allowing the 2nd-most yards over expected per carry, which plays directly to Monangai’s strengths. I’m projecting his median at 35.5 yards about a 65% chance to clear 24.5 and still showing value up to 28.5 at other books. I’m also laddering 40+ & 50+ just given the wide range of outcomes + value I’m seeing. And just to note: my projection already assumes Swift plays..if he’s limited or out, this number could look way too low.

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