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Tailing @nick_giffen

Luck Rankings

I tried a Kyle Pitts receptions escalator two weeks ago against the Saints and fell flat as Pitts had just two catches for 25 yards, but Pitts actually lead Atlanta in targets that game, and he's been the Falcons target leader in all three Kirk Cousins games this season. Cousins will likely have trouble against all that Seattle pressure and that should mean looking to his favorite target, clearly Pitts with Drake London sidelined and the way Cousins has targeted tight ends over his career. As good as Seattle's defense is, it's been vulnerable against tight ends. The Seahawks rank bottom five by DVOA against tight ends and allow the 7th most fantasy points against them, including the 3rd most receptions. Even better, Seattle leads the league against middle passes where tight ends usually live, so these are mostly passes outside where Pitts is better. Two of Seattle's last 10 games came against an opponent with an injured TE1; in the other eight, the TE1 had six, seven, four, nine, four, nine, six, and six receptions. That's at least six catches in six of the eight (75%) and 6.4 receptions a game. Pitts is averaging over seven targets a game with Cousins playing and London out. He matched his career high with nine catches earlier this season in one of those Cousins games, and he caught seven balls for 82 yards last week. The over 4.5 here is juiced, so let's skip straight to the receptions escalator. Split your bet between 6+ catches at +135 and 7+ receptions at +475, and nibble a little on 9+ at +900 (all at bet365) in case Pitts matches his career-high again.