NCAAF Projections
| SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4:00 PM  Iowa State ISU 305  K State KSU 306 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -2.5-115 | |||||
4:00 PM  Idaho State IDS  UNLV UNLV | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:30 PM  Fresno State FRES 309  Kansas KU 310 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14 -14 | +14-108 -14-105 | |||||
11:00 PM  Sam Houston SHSU 307  W. Kentucky WKU 308 | +7 -7 | +9.5 -9.5 | +10-110 -9-112 | |||||
11:30 PM  Stanford STAN 311  Hawaii HAW 312 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -1.5-110 +2.5-109 | |||||
4:00 PM  Stony Brook SBK  San Diego St SDSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
-10 +10 | -9.5 +9.5 | -9.5-105 +9.5-110 | ||||||
10:00 PM  Ohio OHIO 149  Rutgers RUT 150 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-108 -10.5-109 | |||||
10:00 PM  Lafayette LAF  Bowling Green BGSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  Wyoming WYO 147  Akron AKR 148 | -9.5 +9.5 | -9.5 +9.5 | -8.5-110 +9.5-110 | |||||
11:00 PM  Delaware St DLS  Delaware DEL | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  E. Carolina ECU 141  NC State NCST 142 | +14 -14 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-110 -11.5-110 | |||||
11:00 PM  Jax State JVST 145  UCF UCF 146 | +16.5 -16.5 | +16.5 -16.5 | +17.5-115 -16.5-110 | |||||
11:00 PM  St. Francis (PA) STF  LA-Monroe ULM | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM  TN-Martin TNM  OK State OKST | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM  Elon ELO  Duke DUKE | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM  C. Arkansas CARK  Missouri MIZ | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM  Stephen FA SFA  Houston HOU | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM  Buffalo BUFF 153  Minnesota MINN 154 | +18.5 -18.5 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17.5-110 -16.5-110 | |||||
12:30 AM  Alabama St ALAST  UAB UAB | N/A N/A | |||||||
1:00 AM  Nebraska NEB 151  Cincinnati CIN 152 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5-110 +6.5-105 | |||||
1:00 AM  Miami (OH) M-OH 155  Wisconsin WIS 156 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17.5-110 -17.5-110 | |||||
10:00 PM  Tarleton TAR  Army ARMY | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  Kennesaw St KENN 161  Wake Forest WF 162 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17.5 -17.5 | +18.5-114 -17.5-110 | |||||
11:00 PM  App State APP 159  Charlotte CHA 160 | -8.5 +8.5 | -8.5 +8.5 | -8.5-105 +9-110 | |||||
11:00 PM  B-Cookman BCU  FIU FIU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  W. Michigan WMU 171  Michigan St MSU 172 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17.5 -17.5 | +18.5-110 -17.5-110 | |||||
11:30 PM  Wagner WAG Kansas KU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM  W. Illinois WIL  Illinois ILL | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM  GA Tech GT 167  Colorado COLO 168 | -3.5 +3.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -3.5-110 +4.5-110 | |||||
12:00 AM  Auburn AUB 163  Baylor BAY 164 | -1.5 +1.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -1.5-115 +2.5-110 | |||||
1:30 AM UNLV UNLV 165 Sam Houston SHSU 166 | -13.5 +13.5 | -13.5 +13.5 | -12.5-110 +13.5-110 | |||||
+10.5 -10.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +11.5-110 -10.5-108 | ||||||
4:00 PM  FL Atlantic FAU  Maryland UMD | +17.5 -17.5 | +16.5 -16.5 | +16.5-105 -15.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Merrimack MC  Kent State KENT | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Texas TEX 187  Ohio State OSU 188 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3 -3 | +3-107 -3-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Ball State BALL 169  Purdue PUR 170 | +16.5 -16.5 | +16.5 -16.5 | +16.5-110 -16.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Duquesne DUQ  Pittsburgh PITT | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Syracuse SYR 181  Tennessee TENN 182 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +13.5-108 -12.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Northwestern NW 203  Tulane TULN 204 | +7.5 -7.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-109 -7+100 | |||||
4:00 PM  VMI VMI  Navy NAVY | N/A N/A | |||||||
-15.5 +15.5 | -13.5 +13.5 | -12.5-110 +13.5-110 | ||||||
4:45 PM  Toledo TOL 191  Kentucky UK 192 | +12.5 -12.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-110 -10.5-105 | |||||
6:00 PM  Fordham FOR  Boston Col BC | N/A N/A | |||||||
6:00 PM  Robert Morris RMU  West Virginia WVU | N/A N/A | |||||||
6:00 PM  Central Conn CCSU  UConn UCONN | N/A N/A | |||||||
6:30 PM  Old Dominion ODU 175  Indiana IU 176 | +23.5 -23.5 | +23.5 -23.5 | +23.5-110 -23-113 | |||||
7:00 PM  E. Kentucky EKU  Louisville LOU | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM  Holy Cross HC  N. Illinois NIU | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM  Nevada NEV 173  Penn State PSU 174 | +43.5 -43.5 | +45.5 -45.5 | +45.5-109 -45.5-110 | |||||
7:30 PM  Alabama BAMA 211  Florida St FSU 212 | -11.5 +11.5 | -12.5 +12.5 | -12.5-110 +12.5-105 | |||||
7:30 PM  South Dakota SDAK Iowa State ISU | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM  Bucknell BUCK  Air Force AFA | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM  Marshall MRSH 189  Georgia UGA 190 | +38.5 -38.5 | +38.5 -38.5 | +38.5-105 -38.5-108 | |||||
7:30 PM  Temple TEM 179  UMass MASS 180 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-115 +1.5-108 | |||||
8:00 PM  Maine ME  Liberty LIB | N/A N/A | |||||||
8:00 PM  Montana St MOS  Oregon ORE | N/A N/A | |||||||
8:15 PM  Alabama A&M AAM  Arkansas ARK | N/A N/A | |||||||
8:30 PM  Chattanooga CHT  Memphis MEM | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM  Illinois St ILS  Oklahoma OU | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM  Coastal Car CC 185  Virginia UVA 186 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +13-112 -12.5-110 | |||||
10:00 PM  Albany ALB  Iowa IOWA | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM  Weber State WEB  JMU JMU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  Charleston So CCH  Vanderbilt VAN | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  SE Missouri SEM  Arkansas St ARST | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  Long Island LIU  Florida FLA | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  N Alabama UNA W. Kentucky WKU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  UTSA UTSA 213  Texas A&M TA&M 214 | +21 -21 | +20.5 -20.5 | +20.5-105 -20.5-110 | |||||
11:00 PM  Morgan State MGN  S. Alabama USA | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  North Dakota UND K State KSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  Austin Peay APSU  Middle Tenn MTSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  Nicholls St NIC  Troy TROY | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM  LSU LSU 219  Clemson CLEM 220 | +2.5 -2.5 | +3 -3 | +3.5-110 -3-110 | |||||
11:30 PM  Missouri St MOST 217  USC USC 218 | +31.5 -31.5 | +32.5 -32.5 | +32.5-110 -32.5-110 | |||||
11:30 PM  New Mexico UNM 177  Michigan MICH 178 | +34.5 -34.5 | +34.5 -34.5 | +34.5-105 -34.5-110 | |||||
11:30 PM  AR-Pine Bluff APB  Texas Tech TTU | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM  SE Louisiana SEL  LA Tech LT | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:30 PM  UTEP UTEP 193  Utah State USU 194 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-105 -3.5-109 | |||||
11:45 PM  Georgia State GAST 207  Ole Miss MISS 208 | +35.5 -35.5 | +37.5 -37.5 | +37.5-110 -36.5-110 | |||||
12:00 AM  Rice RICE 215  Louisiana UL 216 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5-110 -13.5-110 | |||||
12:00 AM  E. Michigan EMU 209  Texas St TXST 210 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14 -14 | +14-110 -13.5-110 | |||||
12:00 AM  Ab Christian ACU  Tulsa TLSA | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM  Portland State PRST  BYU BYU | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM  Lamar LAM  North Texas UNT | N/A N/A | |||||||
1:00 AM  E TA&M ETAM  SMU SMU | N/A N/A | |||||||
1:00 AM  Bryant U BRY  N. Mexico St NMSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-105 -1.5-110 | ||||||
2:00 AM  N. Arizona NAZ  Arizona St ASU | N/A N/A | |||||||
2:00 AM  Idaho IDHO  Washington St WSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
2:30 AM Hawaii HAW 197  Arizona ARI 198 | +10.5 -10.5 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5-105 -12.5-110 | |||||
2:30 AM  California CAL 221  Oregon St ORST 222 | +1.5 -1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +3.5-115 -2.5-110 | |||||
3:00 AM  Utah UTAH 201  UCLA UCLA 202 | -2.5 +2.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5-105 +4.5-110 | |||||
+18.5 -18.5 | +18.5 -18.5 | +19-110 -18.5-110 | ||||||
7:00 PM  VA Tech VT 229  S. Carolina SC 230 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-105 -9.5-110 | |||||
11:30 PM  Notre Dame ND 231  Miami (FL) MIA 232 | -2.5 +2.5 | -3 +3 | -3-105 +3-105 | |||||
12:00 AM  TCU TCU 233  UNC UNC 234 | +2.5 -2.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +3.5-118 |
A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAF bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAF projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How NCAAF Projections Work
There are many ways to build NCAAF projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college football handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our NCAAF projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in NCAAF betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building college football projections to be aware of news and injuries.
The most important position in the football is quarterback, and it's not unreasonable to see a line move 4-5 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out on a Saturday morning. Other positions are less valuable to the spread, which might surprise a casual gambler. Notably, running backs -- even the very best ones in the country-- rarely move betting lines if they're unable to play for whatever reason.
Using those advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense/defense/special teams, player values, news, predicting home-field advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's NCAAF Projections
Our NCAAF experts will provide consensus projections for every college football game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college football: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Georgia Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the Florida Gators. In that situation, a spread bet on Georgia would cash if they won by a touchdown or more. A bet on Alabama at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
Note that key numbers are important in projecting an edge in college football. Key numbers are just numbers that a game is likelier to land on because of the scoring in football: A 2-0 game is much less likely to occur than a 7-0 game. That means the difference between 6.5 and 7 on the spread is much more important than the difference between 12.5 and 13. The way we grade our NCAAF projections vs. the consensus accounts for these key numbers.
Key numbers are also important for totals, or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game. For a new bettor, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners game has a total of 64 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 63 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 65 or more.
Key numbers are also important in totals betting because, again, scoring isn't by ones, twos, or threes like it is for, say, basketball. Since touchdowns are worth seven points apiece (assuming the extra point is made), total numbers in multiples of sevens and threes are more likely to occur.
You don't have to worry about key numbers in moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright. Everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NCAAF projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Texas Tech Red Raiders are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Clemson Tigers, who are -290. If you bet $10 on Texas Tech and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on Clemson, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.