NCAAF Projections
| SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1:00 AM North Texas UNT 319 UTSA UTSA 320 | -2 +2 | -1.5 +1.5 | PK-110 +1.5-110 | 39%61% | ||||
1:00 AM Wyoming WYO 317 Colorado St CSU 318 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-108 -9.5-110 | 43%57% | ||||
2:00 AM UCLA UCLA 321 Washington WASH 322 | +8 -8 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5-110 -4-110 | 30%69% | ||||
3:15 AM Houston HOU 323 Arizona ARI 324 | +3.5 -3.5 | +2 -2 | +2-110 -1-113 | 63%37% | ||||
5:00 PM Tulane TULN 345 Navy NAVY 346 | -6 +6 | -7 +7 | -7-110 +6.5+102 | 61%39% | ||||
5:00 PM Liberty LIB 339 UMass MASS 340 | -14.5 +14.5 | -14.5 +14.5 | -14.5+100 +14.5-110 | 45%55% | ||||
5:00 PM Texas TEX 333 Arkansas ARK 334 | -16 +16 | -12.5 +12.5 | -12.5-105 +12.5-110 | 57%42% | ||||
5:00 PM LA Tech LT 341 W. Kentucky WKU 342 | +14.5 -14.5 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13-105 -13-110 | 55%45% | ||||
-31.5 +31.5 | -28.5 +28.5 | -28.5-106 +28.5-105 | 42%58% | |||||
5:00 PM Utah UTAH 391 Colorado COLO 392 | -7.5 +7.5 | +11.5 -11.5 | +11.5-110 -11-105 | 43%57% | ||||
5:00 PM Clemson CLEM 347 Pittsburgh PITT 348 | -9.5 +9.5 | -11.5 +11.5 | -11.5-110 +11.5-108 | 59%41% | ||||
5:45 PM LA-Monroe ULM 357 Auburn AUB 358 | +23.5 -23.5 | +25 -25 | +25-110 -25-108 | 55%45% | ||||
6:00 PM Coastal Car CC 327 Marshall MRSH 328 | +9.5 -9.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +9.5-112 -8.5-110 | 76%24% | ||||
6:30 PM Murray State MUR Kentucky UK | +37.5 -37.5 | +38.5 -38.5 | +38.5-105 -38.5-110 | |||||
7:00 PM FL Atlantic FAU 329 Temple TEM 330 | -1.5 +1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-102 -2-110 | 60%40% | ||||
7:00 PM Mercer MER Alabama BAMA | +41.5 -41.5 | +42.5 -42.5 | +41.5-105 -42.5-110 | 67%33% | ||||
7:00 PM FIU FIU 365 Jax State JVST 366 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13 -13 | +13-105 -12.5-112 | 46%54% | ||||
7:30 PM Michigan St MSU 397 Illinois ILL 398 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-105 -2.5-112 | 10%87% | ||||
8:00 PM Hawaii HAW 373 Utah State USU 374 | -3 +3 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +2.5-105 | 6%94% | ||||
8:00 PM Syracuse SYR 371 California CAL 372 | +6.5 -6.5 | +10 -10 | +10-110 -8.5-115 | 48%52% | ||||
-13.5 +13.5 | -16.5 +16.5 | -16-109 +16.5-110 | 75%25% | |||||
8:30 PM Boston Col BC 375 SMU SMU 376 | +15.5 -15.5 | +19.5 -19.5 | +19.5-110 -18.5-108 | 59%39% | ||||
8:30 PM LSU LSU 393 Florida FLA 394 | -5.5 +5.5 | -4 +4 | -3.5-110 +4-109 | 92%8% | ||||
8:30 PM S. Florida USF 337 Charlotte CHA 338 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +2.5-106 | |||||
8:30 PM Oregon St ORST 389 Air Force AFA 390 | -7 +7 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-105 +3-102 | 33%67% | ||||
8:30 PM Louisville LOU 367 Stanford STAN 368 | -19.5 +19.5 | -20.5 +20.5 | -21-106 +20.5-106 | 28%72% | ||||
8:30 PM Penn State PSU 355 Purdue PUR 356 | -28.5 +28.5 | -28.5 +28.5 | -28.5-108 +28.5-105 | 69%31% | ||||
8:30 PM Virginia UVA 385 Notre Dame ND 386 | +20 -20 | +23.5 -23.5 | +22.5-105 -23.5-105 | 67%33% | ||||
9:00 PM JMU JMU 331 Old Dominion ODU 332 | -4.5 +4.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +2.5-102 | 73%27% | ||||
9:00 PM Nebraska NEB 401 USC USC 402 | +8.5 -8.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-109 -7-115 | 54%46% | ||||
9:00 PM Baylor BAY 343 West Virginia WVU 344 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1-110 +2.5-112 | 50%50% | ||||
9:00 PM Troy TROY 325 GA Southern GASO 326 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-104 -7.5-110 | |||||
9:15 PM Missouri MIZ 381 S. Carolina SC 382 | +15.5 -15.5 | +14 -14 | +14+100 -14.5-104 | 21%77% | ||||
PK PK | +3 -3 | +3-105 -3-105 | ||||||
11:00 PM Rutgers RUT 353 Maryland UMD 354 | +3 -3 | +5.5 -5.5 | +6-109 -5.5-108 | 17%83% | ||||
12:00 AM Arizona St ASU 395 K State KSU 396 | +7 -7 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-110 -7.5-105 | 33%65% | ||||
-14 +14 | -14 +14 | -14.5-105 +14-107 | 55%45% | |||||
12:00 AM S. Alabama USA 359 Louisiana UL 360 | +8.5 -8.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-110 -7.5-105 | 33%67% | ||||
12:00 AM Southern Miss USM 377 Texas St TXST 378 | +26.5 -26.5 | +27.5 -27.5 | +27.5-110 -27.5-105 | 24%76% | ||||
12:30 AM Tennessee TENN 379 Georgia UGA 380 | +16.5 -16.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-105 -10-106 | 55%45% | ||||
12:30 AM Oregon ORE 403 Wisconsin WIS 404 | -12 +12 | -13.5 +13.5 | -13.5-110 +13.5-105 | 92%8% | ||||
12:45 AM N. Mexico St NMSU 405 Texas A&M TA&M 406 | +42 -42 | +39 -39 | +38.5-106 -39-110 | 59%41% | ||||
1:00 AM Wake Forest WF 335 UNC UNC 336 | +9.5 -9.5 | +11 -11 | +10.5-105 -11-110 | 9%91% | ||||
1:00 AM Cincinnati CIN 383 Iowa State ISU 384 | +8.5 -8.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-110 -7.5-108 | 8%92% | ||||
1:00 AM UAB UAB 387 Memphis MEM 388 | +15.5 -15.5 | +16 -16 | +16-110 -14.5-110 | 23%77% | ||||
-10.5 +10.5 | -10.5 +10.5 | -10-112 +10.5-105 | 41%59% | |||||
3:15 AM Kansas KU 363 BYU BYU 364 | +7 -7 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5+100 -2.5-110 | 60%40% | ||||
3:30 AM San Diego St SDSU 407 UNLV UNLV 408 | +18.5 -18.5 | +20.5 -20.5 | +20.5-105 -20.5-110 | 71%29% | ||||
+7.5 -7.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-105 -9.5-110 | 48%51% | |||||
+10.5 -10.5 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5-105 -14.5-105 | 28%71% | |||||
Final - OT Ball State BALL 305 Buffalo BUFF 306 | +5.5 -5.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -3.5-108 | 40%59% | ||||
+30.5 -30.5 | +30.5 -30.5 | +30.5-106 -30.5-110 | 47%46% | |||||
+18.5 -18.5 | +14 -14 | +14-110 -14.5+100 | 58%39% | |||||
+11.5 -11.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-110 -10.5-110 | 62%37% | |||||
-11 +11 | -16.5 +16.5 | -15.5-110 +16.5-110 | 54%44% |
A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAF bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAF projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How NCAAF Projections Work
There are many ways to build NCAAF projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college football handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our NCAAF projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in NCAAF betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building college football projections to be aware of news and injuries.
The most important position in the football is quarterback, and it's not unreasonable to see a line move 4-5 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out on a Saturday morning. Other positions are less valuable to the spread, which might surprise a casual gambler. Notably, running backs -- even the very best ones in the country-- rarely move betting lines if they're unable to play for whatever reason.
Using those advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense/defense/special teams, player values, news, predicting home-field advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's NCAAF Projections
Our NCAAF experts will provide consensus projections for every college football game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college football: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Georgia Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the Florida Gators. In that situation, a spread bet on Georgia would cash if they won by a touchdown or more. A bet on Alabama at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
Note that key numbers are important in projecting an edge in college football. Key numbers are just numbers that a game is likelier to land on because of the scoring in football: A 2-0 game is much less likely to occur than a 7-0 game. That means the difference between 6.5 and 7 on the spread is much more important than the difference between 12.5 and 13. The way we grade our NCAAF projections vs. the consensus accounts for these key numbers.
Key numbers are also important for totals, or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game. For a new bettor, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners game has a total of 64 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 63 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 65 or more.
Key numbers are also important in totals betting because, again, scoring isn't by ones, twos, or threes like it is for, say, basketball. Since touchdowns are worth seven points apiece (assuming the extra point is made), total numbers in multiples of sevens and threes are more likely to occur.
You don't have to worry about key numbers in moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright. Everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NCAAF projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Texas Tech Red Raiders are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Clemson Tigers, who are -290. If you bet $10 on Texas Tech and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on Clemson, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.