NCAAF Projections
| SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11:30 PM Troy TROY 301 S. Alabama USA 302 | +13.5 -13.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-110 -11.5-109 | 56%38% | ||||
12:00 AM Kennesaw St KENN 303 Middle Tenn MTSU 304 | +9.5 -9.5 | +10 -10 | +10-107 -10.5-105 | 20%77% | ||||
1:00 AM LA Tech LT 305 N. Mexico St NMSU 306 | -8.5 +8.5 | -10.5 +10.5 | -10.5-110 +10.5-105 | 74%26% | ||||
11:00 PM W. Kentucky WKU 307 Sam Houston SHSU 308 | -1 +1 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3+100 -3-110 | 47%47% | ||||
1:00 AM FIU FIU 309 UTEP UTEP 310 | -1.5 +1.5 | -5.5 +5.5 | -5.5-108 +5.5-110 | 82%18% | ||||
11:00 PM Georgia State GAST 315 Marshall MRSH 316 | +7 -7 | +9 -9 | +8.5-105 -8.5-110 | 73%27% | ||||
11:30 PM Boston Col BC 313 VA Tech VT 314 | +7 -7 | +7 -7 | +6.5-104 -7-108 | 45%55% | ||||
11:00 PM Florida St FSU 317 Duke DUKE 318 | +4.5 -4.5 | +3 -3 | +3-105 -3-110 | 13%87% | ||||
12:00 AM Oregon ORE 319 Purdue PUR 320 | -32.5 +32.5 | -27.5 +27.5 | -27-110 +27.5-106 | 33%67% | ||||
2:15 AM OK State OKST 321 BYU BYU 322 | +5.5 -5.5 | +9 -9 | +9-105 -8.5-110 | 47%53% | ||||
2:30 AM Fresno State FRES 389 Nevada NEV 390 | -6.5 +6.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-105 +2.5-105 | 31%69% | ||||
4:00 PM Miami (FL) MIA 331 Louisville LOU 332 | +1 -1 | -4 +4 | -3.5-112 +4.5-110 | 91%9% | ||||
4:00 PM Virginia UVA 353 Clemson CLEM 354 | +21.5 -21.5 | +21.5 -21.5 | +21-105 -21-110 | 68%32% | ||||
4:00 PM Nebraska NEB 419 Indiana IU 420 | +3.5 -3.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-109 -5.5-115 | 18%82% | ||||
4:00 PM Auburn AUB 409 Missouri MIZ 410 | +9.5 -9.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-105 -6.5-110 | 77%23% | ||||
4:00 PM E. Carolina ECU 327 Army ARMY 328 | +13.5 -13.5 | +17 -17 | +16.5+100 -16.5-110 | 42%58% | ||||
4:00 PM Louisiana UL 349 Coastal Car CC 350 | -3 +3 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-110 +3.5-108 | |||||
4:00 PM UCLA UCLA 371 Rutgers RUT 372 | +8.5 -8.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-104 -6.5-110 | 90%10% | ||||
4:00 PM Arizona St ASU 355 Cincinnati CIN 356 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3 -3 | +3-108 -3-105 | 6%94% | ||||
4:00 PM Wisconsin WIS 377 Northwestern NW 378 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7 +7 | -6.5-110 +6.5+100 | 92%8% | ||||
4:00 PM Wake Forest WF 325 UConn UCONN 326 | -4.5 +4.5 | +2 -2 | +2.5-115 -1.5-110 | |||||
4:45 PM S. Carolina SC 365 Oklahoma OU 366 | +5.5 -5.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5+100 -3-105 | 79%21% | ||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +2 -2 | +2.5-110 -1.5-110 | ||||||
6:00 PM Tulsa TLSA 335 Temple TEM 336 | PK PK | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-105 -2.5-110 | |||||
7:30 PM Alabama BAMA 345 Tennessee TENN 346 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +2.5-105 | |||||
7:30 PM Notre Dame ND 347 GA Tech GT 348 | +1.5 -1.5 | -8.5 +8.5 | -8.5-110 +8.5-110 | 60%40% | ||||
7:30 PM Michigan MICH 375 Illinois ILL 376 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1-110 +1-108 | 57%43% | ||||
7:30 PM Charlotte CHA 343 Navy NAVY 344 | +16.5 -16.5 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17-105 -17.5+100 | |||||
+24.5 -24.5 | +21 -21 | +20.5-105 -20-110 | ||||||
7:30 PM FL Atlantic FAU 407 UTSA UTSA 408 | +6 -6 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-112 -3.5-105 | |||||
7:30 PM NC State NCST 391 California CAL 392 | +7.5 -7.5 | +10 -10 | +10.5-110 -10-110 | |||||
7:30 PM Rice RICE 403 Tulane TULN 404 | +23.5 -23.5 | +22.5 -22.5 | +22.5-110 -21.5-110 | |||||
7:30 PM Toledo TOL 367 N. Illinois NIU 368 | +1 -1 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-108 -2.5-110 | |||||
7:30 PM Houston HOU 397 Kansas KU 398 | +9.5 -9.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-104 -6.5-110 | |||||
7:30 PM W. Michigan WMU 337 Buffalo BUFF 338 | -1 +1 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-109 -1-110 | |||||
7:30 PM Ohio OHIO 333 Miami (OH) M-OH 334 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4 -4 | +4.5-110 -3.5-110 | |||||
7:30 PM Hawaii HAW 411 Washington St WSU 412 | +19.5 -19.5 | +19.5 -19.5 | +19.5-110 -19-110 | 50%50% | ||||
-7.5 +7.5 | -10 +10 | -9.5-110 +10-108 | 67%33% | |||||
7:30 PM UAB UAB 369 S. Florida USF 370 | +16 -16 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5-105 -13.5-110 | |||||
8:00 PM JMU JMU 329 GA Southern GASO 330 | -5.5 +5.5 | -10 +10 | -10-108 +9.5-105 | |||||
8:00 PM Colorado COLO 387 Arizona ARI 388 | +4.5 -4.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-105 -3.5-110 | 44%56% | ||||
8:00 PM New Mexico UNM 379 Utah State USU 380 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +2.5-110 | |||||
8:00 PM Baylor BAY 361 Texas Tech TTU 362 | +8.5 -8.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +7-110 -6.5-110 | |||||
8:00 PM Wyoming WYO 385 San Jose St SJSU 386 | +11 -11 | +11.5 -11.5 | +11.5-110 -11.5-106 | |||||
8:00 PM USC USC 373 Maryland UMD 374 | -5.5 +5.5 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7-115 +7.5-105 | 75%25% | ||||
-15.5 +15.5 | -14.5 +14.5 | -14.5-110 +15.5-110 | 17%83% | |||||
11:00 PM LSU LSU 399 Arkansas ARK 400 | -9.5 +9.5 | -3 +3 | -3-105 +3-105 | 91%9% | ||||
11:00 PM Ball State BALL 395 Vanderbilt VAN 396 | +24.5 -24.5 | +26.5 -26.5 | +26.5-110 -26.5-110 | |||||
-7 +7 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5-110 +6.5-105 | ||||||
11:30 PM Georgia UGA 401 Texas TEX 402 | -1.5 +1.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -3.5-110 | 25%69% | ||||
11:30 PM UCF UCF 323 Iowa State ISU 324 | +10.5 -10.5 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5-110 -13-108 | 25%75% | ||||
11:30 PM K State KSU 357 West Virginia WVU 358 | -1.5 +1.5 | -3 +3 | -3-110 +3-110 | 67%33% | ||||
11:30 PM North Texas UNT 359 Memphis MEM 360 | +12.5 -12.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-110 -10-112 | 90%10% | ||||
11:30 PM Iowa IOWA 415 Michigan St MSU 416 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6-110 +6.5-110 | |||||
11:45 PM Kentucky UK 339 Florida FLA 340 | -1.5 +1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-110 -2-112 | |||||
12:00 AM SMU SMU 393 Stanford STAN 394 | -12.5 +12.5 | -14.5 +14.5 | -14.5-110 +14.5-106 | 67%33% | ||||
12:00 AM Colorado St CSU 383 Air Force AFA 384 | -8 +8 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7.5-108 +7.5-110 | |||||
2:00 AM UNLV UNLV 413 Oregon St ORST 414 | -4 +4 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5-110 +6.5-108 | 67%33% | ||||
2:30 AM TCU TCU 381 Utah UTAH 382 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-105 -6.5-110 | 29%71% |
A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAF bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAF projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How NCAAF Projections Work
There are many ways to build NCAAF projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college football handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our NCAAF projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in NCAAF betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building college football projections to be aware of news and injuries.
The most important position in the football is quarterback, and it's not unreasonable to see a line move 4-5 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out on a Saturday morning. Other positions are less valuable to the spread, which might surprise a casual gambler. Notably, running backs -- even the very best ones in the country-- rarely move betting lines if they're unable to play for whatever reason.
Using those advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense/defense/special teams, player values, news, predicting home-field advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's NCAAF Projections
Our NCAAF experts will provide consensus projections for every college football game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college football: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Georgia Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the Florida Gators. In that situation, a spread bet on Georgia would cash if they won by a touchdown or more. A bet on Alabama at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
Note that key numbers are important in projecting an edge in college football. Key numbers are just numbers that a game is likelier to land on because of the scoring in football: A 2-0 game is much less likely to occur than a 7-0 game. That means the difference between 6.5 and 7 on the spread is much more important than the difference between 12.5 and 13. The way we grade our NCAAF projections vs. the consensus accounts for these key numbers.
Key numbers are also important for totals, or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game. For a new bettor, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners game has a total of 64 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 63 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 65 or more.
Key numbers are also important in totals betting because, again, scoring isn't by ones, twos, or threes like it is for, say, basketball. Since touchdowns are worth seven points apiece (assuming the extra point is made), total numbers in multiples of sevens and threes are more likely to occur.
You don't have to worry about key numbers in moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright. Everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NCAAF projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Texas Tech Red Raiders are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Clemson Tigers, who are -290. If you bet $10 on Texas Tech and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on Clemson, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.