Latest NCAAF Betting Picks

This matchup has all the makings of a shootout. Both offenses are electric, but UTSA’s offense especially caught my eye last week. Owen McCown looked fantastic last Thursday against a strong Tulane defense, going 31 of 33 for 370 yards and four touchdowns. It was a massive step forward after a shaky start to the season. My theory is that he clearly wasn’t 100% early on and is finally getting healthy. He looked like a completely different quarterback against Tulane. On the flip side, South Florida will score in bunches tonight. I said this in last week’s write-up that the reason I loved UTSA against Tulane was because Tulane’s offense couldn’t generate explosive plays. Explosives are UTSA’s biggest defensive weakness. Unfortunately for the Roadrunners, South Florida has one of the most explosive offenses in the country. UTSA ranks 117th in explosive play rate allowed, while USF ranks 15th in explosiveness on offense. USF is sixth nationally in scoring at 40.4 points per game, but at home that number jumps to 49.75 PPG. Dual threat QB Byrum Brown is electric, and he’ll have a major advantage tonight behind an offensive line that should dominate up front. The UTSA secondary has been a major liability, posting a brutal 118th coverage grade. They sit 100th in passing defense, 104th in rushing defense, and 116th in pass rush. If USF gets WR Chas Nimrod back, that only adds another explosive layer. The Bulls should move the ball at will, especially operating at the fifth fastest pace in the nation. On the other side, the UTSA offense is even more explosive than USF’s. The Roadrunners rank 13th in explosiveness and put that on full display last week, hanging 48 on a Tulane defense that had been allowing just 22.2 points per game. If McCown is healthy, this offense becomes incredibly efficient. RB Robert Henry Jr. is averaging eight yards per carry and should find plenty of success tonight. South Florida’s defense sits just 79th overall and 84th against the pass, with a 73.9 coverage grade. That doesn’t match up well against one of the most pass heavy attacks in college football. Yes, UTSA has had road struggles, which is why our model makes this fair total 60.6. However, the model can’t fully account for a healthy McCown. The Roadrunners finally looked dangerous again last week, and I expect their road issues to lessen in the warm Florida climate. One final note: South Florida head coach Alex Golesh knows the Group of Five bid may come down to margin of victory. Running up the score has been part of USF’s identity and I don’t expect that to change tonight. I could see this game having 80+ points, give me the over.

Project Corn -3; Rush explosives for UCLA shoukd be limited, Berger/Thomas have not had an explosive rush in two weeks. Emmett Johnson faces a bottom 5 UCLA rush D

5.11% ev play to -105