Fenway Park screams runs, but this one's got sneaky UNDER written all over it. Walker Buehler's quietly dominating – 94th % in avg exit velo, 92nd % in hard-hit rate. His sinker? Opponents hitting just .136. Orioles rank 25th in runs, avg just 3.83/game. Dean Kremer's 5.50 ERA looks ugly, but zoom in – UNDER has hit in 6 of his last 8 vs Boston. Last meeting: 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks. Red Sox mash most teams, but Kremer’s been their curveball. If he keeps them honest early, Offenses bring the headlines, but both starters set up for control. Buehler neutralizing hard contact, Orioles' OPS just .690 (22nd in MLB). Even if Boston scores a few early, Orioles' bats likely stay cold. Bullpen gap widens late. This could be 5–3 max.

Rookie flamethrower alert – Logan Henderson: 3-0, 1.69 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 39% K rate. Tossed 5 shutout innings vs O's last start. 12.9 K/9 shows elite stuff. Faces Pirates team dead last in runs (3.0/game), bottom 3 in AVG (.221) + HRs (36). Huge mismatch. Pirates offense is broken – 30th in runs, 29th OPS. Just 157 runs in 52 games. No power, no contact. Falter’s solid (2.32 home ERA), but gets no help – PIT scores 1.7 runs/game in his last 3. Even good pitching won’t matter with this lineup behind him. Brewers bats average 4.3 runs/game (12th) – don’t need much. Henderson likely keeps it low-scoring, so a few timely hits is enough. Strong day-game trend after a loss. Bounce-back spot sets up perfect to steal series finale.

Tarik Skubal at home = automatic. 2.37 ERA, 0.86 WHIP at Comerica. Tigers 5-0 in his last 5 starts. 79 K to 7 BB on the year, elite control. Guardians hit just .229 vs LHP – weak splits meet AL Cy Young. Skubal also dominated CLE last year: 7 IP, 1 ER. Allen’s in trouble. Tigers offense ranks 4th in MLB in runs (5.36/game), 9th in avg (.253). Logan Allen gives up a .282 opp avg on the road. Lit up by DET last year – 7 ER in 2.1 IP. Only lasted 3 IP in last outing. Tigers lineup with power – Torkelson + Greene mash. Tigers bullpen stronger (2.78 ERA vs CLE's 3.32). 17-8 at Comerica, big home edge. Motivation sky-high – avoid 4-game sweep, division rival. Guardians hot, but Skubal is the stopper. Pitching edge + bats wake up = DET bounce-back win incoming.