Bayern Munich are back into firm pole position for the Bundesliga title with eight matches to play after the Bavarians' resounding victory against Borussia Dortmund in Der Klassiker. Bayern are a -550 favorite to win the league, but Dortmund are far from out of the picture at just two points behind them. Union Berlin and Freiburg look to continue to outrun regression and hold off top four challengers as RB Leipzig, Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen trail from behind and look to claim the final places in Europe.
Bayern just lost to Freiburg in the midweek DFB-Pokal in a stunning upset, while Leipzig, Stuttgart and Frankfurt advanced into the semifinal. It's a tricky spot now for the Bavarians, who have a chance for immediate revenge in the league at Freiburg. With that being said, Bayern may have one eye on their upcoming Champions League clash with Manchester City.
There's a full Bundesliga slate this weekend with nine matches, and here are my three best bets.
Bundesliga Odds & Picks
Bayer Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt
| Leverkusen Odds | -118 |
| Frankfurt Odds | +290 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-163 / +130) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Eintracht Frankfurt had a resounding victory at home against Union Berlin in the DFB-Pokal during the week and now Oliver Glasner's side visits the surging Leverkusen. This is a massive clash for European positioning and it might come as a surprise at first glance to see Leverkusen as a solid home moneyline favorite given that Frankfurt are higher in the Bundesliga table thus far.
Since the World Cup, Xabi Alonso's side has been flying and steadily improving. That culminated in the victory at home against Bayern Munich, in which they won with two penalties but were clearly the better side throughout the match. Only Bayern have a better xG difference since the break, and that includes a Dortmund side that has just one league loss in 11 matches since the World Cup.
Since Florian Wirtz has returned from his ACL injury, the German creator has been elite at helping Leverkusen create chances. He has four assists in 6.8 90s and his ball progression numbers remain elite from midfield. The attacking output of Leverkusen is considerably more sustainable than Eintracht Frankfurt's, who are overly reliant on creating big scoring chances and take the fifth-fewest shots per match in the entire Bundesliga.
Set pieces have been one of the bigger weakness for Alonso's Leverkusen, but Frankfurt also lag behind in that department on both ends and won't be able to exploit Leverkusen there. In fact, no side in Germany has allowed more goals from set pieces this season than Glasner's Frankfurt.Pic
Dabbundo's Pick: Bayer Leverkusen ML (-120 or better)
Augsburg vs FC Köln
| Augsburg Odds | +180 |
| Köln Odds | +155 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-125 / +100) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via book. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Unsustainable finishing variance offensively has defined Augsburg last year in the Bundesliga and now they'll face one of the more passive teams in the Bundesliga on Saturday with a slightly inflated total. Koln's defense is elite across the board this season with top six grades in non-penalty xG, big scoring chances, xG per set piece and box entries allowed. They've kept potent offenses like Bayern and Leipzig off the board and yet they've struggled for goals consistently.
Augsburg are an extreme counterattacking side by nature, but I'm not sure how many opportunities they'll have to catch Köln overexposed on the road here. Not only do Köln not produce big scoring chances, but the entire attack is built around patience and taking advantage of moments. That's why Köln are top five in big scoring chances and xG per set pieces, but rank in the bottom half of the league in total shots per 90.
The Augsburg defense remains terrible but Köln aren't the type of team to overwhelm them with quantity and waves of attacks. As a result, this match should play out to be a bit lower scoring and a bit of a stalemate. My projection is at 2.35 goals and thus I'd take under 2.5 at -105 or better.
Dabbundo's Pick: Under 2.5 (-105 or better)
VfL Bochum vs VfB Stuttgart
| Bochum Odds | +210 |
| Stuttgart Odds | +125 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Another new manager is on the touchline for Stuttgart as the club desperately tries to fight off relegation. Bruno Labbadia has been sacked following the defeat to Union Berlin and now Sebastien Hoeness takes over for the remainder of the season. Stuttgart have been one of the least fortunate teams in all of Europe when it comes to variance.
Their underlying process numbers are that of an above average Bundesliga team and that showed when they played even with Bayern and even outplayed Leipzig — despite losing both matches — in the last few months.
Bochum are unbeaten in their last three matches in the league, but the performances defensively remain dismal. Bochum conceded 5.6 xGA in those three games and they have the league's worst defense by a wide margin. If Stuttgart can't get right offensively here with a new manager, it may never come for this group.
This Bochum team likes to press but they leave themselves terribly exposed at the other end. They rank dead last in xG at both ends of the pitch. Given Stuttgart's struggles, you're getting a bit of a discount on them here. I'd bet Stuttgart to win at +120 or better. They've failed to win in five matches, but positive regression still looms and they'e a bet on team the rest of the season.
Dabbundo's Pick: Stuttgart ML (+120 or better)
