Bundesliga Odds, Picks, Predictions: Analysis For Bayern Munich vs Hoffenheim & More

Seven match weeks remain in the Bundesliga season, with Bayern Munich holding onto a two-point lead over Borussia Dortmund at the top of the table.

Bayern only have two matches left against teams in the top half of the table, compared to three for Dortmund. The Blacks and Yellows survived a real scare at home against Union Berlin last week, but they took down Union 2-1 to stay within touching distance of Bayern. Based on my projections, the "must-win" tax is being applied to both German giants this weekend as Bayern host Hoffenheim and Dortmund visit Stuttgart. Both opponents are undervalued in the market by my projections, and there's likely to be value going against Bayern and Dortmund the remainder of the season as they chase the title.

Eintracht Frankfurt are a solid home favorite against Borussia Monchengladbach in a high profile matchup on Saturday, and the weekend concludes with a tricky road trip for Bayer Leverkusen to Wolfsburg.

Here are my three Bundesliga best bets:

Bungesliga Odds & Picks

Bayern Munich vs Hoffenheim

All is not right at Bayern under Thomas Tuchel, and the sacking of Julian Nagelsmann has not done much to improve the Bavarian side. There was a dust up in the locker room following the 3-0 loss at Manchester City between Sadio Mane and Leroy Sane. It's a sandwich spot for Bayern too with the return leg of the Champions League scheduled for Wednesday. It's true that Bayern beat Dortmund comfortably in Der Klassiker, but that had more to do with poor goalkeeping and a shell shocked Dortmund than a dazzling Bayern display. 

Since that result, Bayern scored once in a 2-1 defeat to Freiburg in the DFB-Pokal, then followed it up with a cagey 1-0 win at Freiburg and the loss to Manchester City. The injury to Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting leaves them without a true striker in the side, and the poor from of Mane and Serge Gnabry means the attack is quite disjointed and without a true focal point in the center. This is a problem for a Tuchel side that often likes to focus its possession on creating a few very high quality chances from the center of the penalty area.

The market is also way too low on Hoffenheim's defense to begin with. They rank 11th in NPxG per 90 allowed and don't concede many big scoring chances at all. That should leave Bayern settling for worse shots than they'd like and a struggle to get margin, Hoffenheim have struggled all season long but a lot of it is due to shot variance and bad finishing luck. Bayern in their current state aren't 2.25 goals better than an average Bundesliga team, even at home.

Dabbundo's Pick: Hoffenheim +2.25 (-120 or better)

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund

Like Bayern, Dortmund are being taxed with this number because of their must-win perception. Dortmund showed in their blowout 2-0 loss to Leipzig in the DFB-Pokal last week that they are still a very flawed team overall with plenty of defensive holes.

Dortmund's defense are seventh in NPxG allowed per 90, and that doesn't even include games against Chelsea and Leipzig in the last month where they conceded 2 xG or more in all three. The defense isn't good at stopping shots or preventing opponents from entering the penalty area. Dortmund are 10th in shots allowed and seventh in box entires allowed. It's a flawed defense waiting to get exposed, and Stuttgart's attack remains very underrated because of poor finishing. The process behind the attack is excellent — Stuttgart is fourth in shots, fourth in final third entries and seventh in box entires. It's only a matter of time before the goals start coming in bunches and the market is well aware they're not actually a bottom three team in the league.

I said last week when they were lined as a pick'em against Bochum that the market was badly undervaluing them. The same remains true here, where Stuttgart should be priced closer to a toss-up in this matchup. It sounds crazy at the surface given Dortmund are in second and Stuttgart are 16th, but Dortmund are closer to fourth and Stuttgart are a top half team by underlying numbers.

Dabbundo's Pick: Stuttgart +0.5 (-120 or better)

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FC Köln vs Mainz 05

The market has gotten too hot on Mainz following their recent winning run prior to this match. Mainz are over-performing their expected metrics considerably and are due for some regression. Bo Svensson's side is unbeaten in its last eight matches and has a +11 goal difference in those matches, but the xGD is just +2.6. Köln are basically at the opposite end of the spectrum and are a good buy low candidate because of it. They had no wins in six matches prior to the beatdown of Augsburg last week on the road and a lot of the poor results were down to bad variance, not necessarily bad process.

Mainz are still the better team, but the spot is good from a buy-low and sell-high perspective, and my projections actually make Köln a -124 draw no bet favorite in this matchup once you apply home field advantage. Köln excel defensively at preventing big scoring chances — especially at home — and Mainz's offense still doesn't produce much volume to trust them in this spot on the road. For the entire season, these two teams have roughly even xG differentials.

Priors will tell you Mainz are better, but not by enough. Bet Köln at -120 or better on the draw no bet line.

Dabbundo's Pick: Köln – Draw No Bet (-120 or better)