Both Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich won last weekend and the gap remains one point between the German giants in their razor tight title race. Bayern host Schalke and are a massive favorite to take all three points from the contest, while Dortmund host Borussia Monchengladbach, who beat them in the reverse fixture.
The title race could be decided this weekend, as could the top four race as Union Berlin host Freiburg. The two overachieving clubs are tied in fourth on 56 points, while Union have the superior goal difference (+12 to +8). The winner of that match becomes the overwhelming favorite to take fourth behind Bayern, Dortmund and RB Leipzig.
At the bottom of the table, no one is officially relegated yet and there's a ton of high profile matchups as Hertha Berlin visit Köln on Friday, Bochum host nearly safe Augsburg and Stuttgart host Leverkusen. Nearly every match in Germany this weekend impacts the title race, European places and relegation battle.
Here are my three best bets in Germany this weekend.
Bundesliga Odds & Picks
Bayern Munich vs Schalke 04
| Bayern Odds | -900 |
| Schalke Odds | +1800 |
| Draw | +900 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-400 / +300) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Bayern Munich are clearly inflated in the market because of their title chasing situation. This is essentially a must-win, as anything less than three points would cede control of the title race back to Dortmund. Schalke's defense has made legitimate improvements since the World Cup break and they've continued to improve defensively since Thomas Reis became manager in October.
Schalke were one of the worst defenses in the league in the first 10 matches. Since the break, Schalke are conceding 1.41 xGA per match, which is 12th in Germany. For the season, Schalke are 14th in xG allowed and 11th in progressive passes and dribbles conceded. Given how the market is pricing this defense with the total at four, it is too low on the Schalke defense.
It is a more active defense than most of the bottom half of the Bundesliga. They rank second in passes per defensive action and do a decent job of stopping teams in build-up. Schalke have holes in behind as a result of this approach, but they allow the third-lowest average pass completion rate in the league. Bayern won't get easy and free build-up and ball progression to get the ball into Schalke's final third.
Since Thomas Tuchel became manager, Bayern have been objectively more low event. The Bavarians played that 4-2 thriller with Dortmund in his first match, but remember that goalie errors from Dortmund gifted Bayern two goals in the first 15 minutes.
Since then, Bayern haven't scored more than two goals in any match under Tuchel. They've been held under their season long average for shots per match in six of the nine contests he's been in charge for. Two of them were against Manchester City, but this fits the mold of a Tuchel team.
Tuchel wants a lot of possession and to generate a few high quality chances. They'll get them against Schalke, but not in enough volume to justify a total at 4.
My projections only have 3.66 goals projected for this match and I'm going to bet under 4 at -125 or better.
Dabbundo's Pick: Under 4 (-125 or better)
Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Monchengladbach
| Dortmund Odds | -400 |
| Gladbach Odds | +900 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-350 / +275) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
For the second straight weekend, Gladbach are playing an opponent that has significantly more motivation than they do. Once again, we get to buy Gladbach at a discount because of this. Gladbach are stuck in the middle of the table with no threat of relegation and no chance of making it back to Europe next season. The same was true last week when the Foals closed a +110 home moneyline favorite against Bochum — the worst team in the league. Now, Gladbach are +900 and +2 goals, a price they've only been once all season – at Bayern Munich. Gladbach beat Leipzig this season, beat Dortmund 4-2 in the reverse fixture and took four points off Bayern in two games against the German giant.
The Foals shouldn't be +2 against anyone except Bayern, and even then, I'd back them. They have one of the highest pass completion rates in the league and are quite press-resistant. Dortmund are top five in passes per defensive action and want to press and win the ball back from the front. Gladbach match up well because they can play through the pressure and create chances in behind.
Their defense has been quite shaky away from home, but this is still a generic average German team. Given that Leipzig closed -1.5 against the Foals earlier this spring, and Dortmund are worse than Leipzig from a power rating perspective, this line makes little sense. Maybe Gladbach don't care and are on the beach, but a chance to play spoiler against a local rival should get them up for a competitive match.
Dabbundo's Picks: Gladbach +2 (-130 or better) | Gladbach ML (+700 or better)
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen
| Stuttgart Odds | +155 |
| Leverkusen Odds | +170 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-136 / +112) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Bayer Leverkusen can't qualify for the Champions League by way of the league finish anymore, and all eyes for Xabi Alonso's side shift toward the competitive Europa League second leg against Roma next Thursday. Alonso will have to make some key decisions about who to rotate, but I wouldn't expect to see Florian Wirtz in the lineup. Wirtz has been a key creator of both shots and chances for his teammates since returning from injury.
The spot is pricing in some of a motivational mismatch for Stuttgart here with them as a favorite, but there's not that much of a gap between these two teams once you factor in normal home field advantage either. Stuttgart have underachieved xG at both ends of the pitch — especially defensively — but they have a positive xG difference. Leverkusen have improved their defensive approach under Alonso by being more passive and not pressing with as much intensity, but there are still some holes for Alonso.
Die Werkself rank 13th in final third entries allowed and Stuttgart's attacking ball progression numbers are actually above average. As a result, I expect Stuttgart to be able to really tilt the field on Leverkusen. The attacking in transition element will be lessened if Leverkusen don't start their best attackers. As a result, I'd bet Stuttgart as a pick'em at home.
Dabbundo's Pick: Stuttgart – Draw No Bet (-120 or better)
