Bundesliga Odds, Picks, Predictions: Best Bets For Freiburg vs. Stuttgart & More

Bayern Munich's lead at the top of the Bundesliga remained at one point over Union Berlin after both clubs won at the weekend. RB Leipzig dropped points in their attempt to chase down Bayern in their goalless draw with Cologne, while Borussia Dortmund got a goal from Sebastien Haller in a 4-1 victory against shorthanded Freiburg.

The league is very congested at the top from first place Bayern on 40 points down to Freiburg in sixth on 34. The highlight match of the weekend is Union Berlin's trip to RB Leipzig, and while it's not included in this preview amongst my best bets, I did take Leipzig -135 on the three-way moneyline at home and would play it up to -140.

Bayern should have no issues dispatching Bochum at home, but the Bavarians do have a Tuesday clash with PSG in the Champions League looming. Dortmund have a tricky away day against Werder Bremen, who beat them in Dortmund early in the season. Eintracht Frankfurt also are a toss-up on the road against surging Cologne in one of the two Sunday matches.

Here are my three best bets for the weekend Bundesliga slate:

Bundesliga Odds & Picks

Freiburg vs. Stuttgart

From a buy-low and sell-high perspective, this is the spot of the weekend in the Bundesliga. Stuttgart sit in 16th with a positive xG difference and Freiburg are sixth with basically the same exact underlying numbers.

There's not much of a difference in the true talent between these two teams, except that Freiburg has had a bunch of variance and bounces go their way while Stuttgart has all of the variance go against them.

By a lot of metrics, Stuttgart have actually been the better team in the Bundesliga this season. They do a better job than Freiburg in the midfield of progressing the ball into the opposition penalty area and are better at preventing opponents from getting into their box. Stuttgart's attack is fourth in expected threat going forward, which is considerably better than Freiburg's  10th.

Defensively, the two teams are quite comparable. Stuttgart allow more high quality chances, but Freiburg allows more volume of shots. On aggregate, Freiburg rank sixth in xG allowed and Stuttgart are seventh. When you consider all of Stuttgart's underlying numbers, it's a matter of incredible misfortune that they're not sitting higher in the table. They've won the xG battle in five of their last six matches — but have just one win to show for those performances.

Most of Stuttgart's defensive underperformance is due to poor shot-stopping from the goalkeeper Florian Muller. His data suggests he's below average, but not one of the two worst in the league as he's been this season.

This is a good spot to buy Stuttgart in a match that should be closer to a tossup, even in the German forest at Freiburg.

Dabbundo's Pick: Stuttgart +0.5 (-100 or better)

Mainz 05  vs. Augsburg

This is a surprisingly cheap price on Mainz at home, not all that dissimilar to two weeks ago when they thrashed Bochum at home, 5-2.

Mainz have regressed from last year's highs, but Bo Svensson's side is still clearly better than Augsburg and safely in the mid-table in Germany. The -115 moneyline price implies that they're only marginally better than Augsburg in true talent on a neutral field. Nothing in either team's statistical profile suggests that is the case.

Augsburg are more reliant on set pieces for attacks than almost any team in Germany, and now they face the league's best set piece defense. Augsburg aren't good at sustaining possession in the opponent's final third or getting into the penalty area. Despite the defensive regression, Mainz are still third in touches allowed in their own box.

This Augsburg defense is also the worst in Germany — they've conceded the most big scoring chances, they're second to last in passes allowed and dead last in touches allowed in their own box. Mainz's poor recent form and Augsburg's recent home wins against Gladbach and Leverkusen are inflating their price in this market.

Away from home this season, Augsburg have a -0.94 xGD per match. It's a terrible team and I'd bet Mainz at -135 or better on the moneyline.

Dabbundo's Pick: Mainz 05 ML (-135 or better)

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FC Köln  vs. Eintracht Frankfurt

I circled this spot a few weeks ago as a place to bet against Eintracht Frankfurt once again. Frankfurt dispatched a poor Hertha Berlin side at home last week, and they remain unbeaten since play resumed post-World Cup. Frankfurt have two wins against lowly Schalke and Hertha and two fortunate draws with Freiburg and Bayern Munich. 

This is a similar spot to last week when Köln's defense totally shut down Leipzig. Like Leipzig, Frankfurt are at the top of their market price here.

By just about any metric, Köln are elite defensively. They're top-five in xG allowed per match. The set piece defense is second only to Mainz, they're top three in big scoring chances conceded and top six in touches allowed in their own box.

Compare this to a Frankfurt attack that has below average shot production and ball progression numbers. The attack is built on elite and sustainable finishing quality and it created just 0.2 xG vs. a solid Freiburg defense and 0.6 xG against Bayern in the last two weeks. Even the attacking showing against Schalke was less than impressive. Frankfurt have major attacking regression coming once they stop finishing at 35% over their xG numbers.

I make Köln a solid home favorite here as two comparable teams and would bet them on the draw no bet line at -120 or better.

Dabbundo's Pick: Köln – Draw No Bet (-120 or better)