Bundesliga Odds, Picks, Predictions for This Weekend, Including Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg

Borussia Dortmund had the Bundesliga title in their hands and just needed to go on the road to 16th placed Bochum and win to maintain the lead. In true Dortmund fashion, the Blacks and Yellows settled for a 1-1 draw and are now one point behind Bayern Munich with four matches to play. Of all of Europe's top five leagues, it's quite surprising to see the Bundesliga as the most competitive title race.

A quick look at the remaining schedules would tell you Bayern are the rightful -300 favorite to lift the trophy on May 27. The Bavarians' remaining schedule includes Werder Bremen (A), Schalke (H), RB Leipzig (H) and Köln (A). Leipzig are the clear toughest match, but the other three will see Bayern as a massive favorite.

Dortmund don't have any one fixture as difficult as Leipzig. but they play Wolfsburg (H), Gladbach (H), Augsburg (A) and Mainz (H). Dortmund's power rating won't make them a huge favorite in any of those three home matches and away at Augsburg potentially fighting relegation won't be easy.

Here are my three best bets for the Bundesliga weekend slate:

Bundesliga Odds & Picks

SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig 

Since the World Cup, Freiburg has continued to outrun regression and maintain their place in the Bundesliga top four. These two sides just met in the midweek DFB-Pokal, a match that Leipzig controlled and won 5-1. It was a finishing clinic from Marco Rose's side that is unlikely to replicate this Saturday, but the underlying performances from Leipzig in the last three months show that they are the much superior team and should be more of a favorite than the -110 moneyline price suggests.

Since February began, Freiburg has a negative expected goal difference with just 1.2 xGF and 1.35 xGA. Compare this to Leipzig, who is +0.72 xGD per 90 and conceding just 0.97 xGA per match. They are the only team in the Bundesliga conceding fewer than one expected goal per 90 and the improved defensive performances include multiple blips and outliers against this group.

Leipzig lost to Dortmund, Leverkusen and Bochum in the last two months, but clearly out-created the opponent in terms of chances in all three. Freiburg's entire aura is built around conceding few big scoring chances and scoring the majority of its big chances. The underlying shot production is quite middling and Leipzig should be able to tilt the field on them. Only Union Berlin is allowing a lower goals per shot on target this year, a clear sign that defensive regression is looming.

It's a massive match for both sides chances at the top four, and Leipzig is undervalued to take all three points, even after factoring in home field.

Dabbundo's Pick: RB Leipzig ML (-120 or better)

Borussia Monchengladbach vs VfL Bochum

This is one of the biggest motivational mismatches of the entire weekend in Germany, and we get a discount on Gladbach because of it. The market is well aware that Gladbach have nothing to play for and that Bochum are trying to fight off relegation. The idea that Bochum will win more 50-50 challenges and defend better is all baked in and overpriced with this number. Let's just take raw xG difference: Gladbach are an average Bundesliga team, and Bochum have a -0.78 xG difference per 90 minutes, based on the consensus xG models.

You can price in a modest shot stopping advantage for Bochum due to goalkeeper since Gladbach lost Yann Sommer, but that would not get you to this moneyline price, where Gladbach is just a -120 moneyline favorite at home. The Foals have been inconsistent all season long and are very average, but they've produced 1.8 xG per match at home this year and now get to face the league's worst defense by xGA.

Bochum's defense is extremely aggressive out of possession and likes to press heavily. When facing Gladbach's possession build up, that's a dangerous game. The Foals have the second best short pass completion rate in the league. Bochum will press high and get torched in behind frequently. They've conceded the second most shots, fourth most box entries.

The press has been decent at home, but Bochum have produced four total wins and draws combined away from home for a reason. Take the discount on Gladbach and bet them at -130 or better.

Dabbundo's Pick: Gladbach ML (-130 or better)

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Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg 

Dortmund are inflated in the market price here because of the 'must win' tax that gets applied to teams chasing a title, top four spot or trying to avoid relegation. There's no evidence that teams play any better under this increased pressure.

From a psychological perspective, Bayern will have either already won or dropped points on Saturday and this is a must win either way for Dortmund to either pass Bayern or keep pace.

The market has thus inflated their moneyline and the total. Instead of playing Wolfsburg +1.25, though, because they have also vastly overperformed in attack too, I'm targeting the total. These two attacks have finished way above xG all season long and are inflated in this match as a result. 

Wolfsburg and Dortmund have the highest goals per shot in the league. They are second and third in goals per shot on target, behind only Union Berlin. It's true that Dortmund and Wolfsburg are in the top five in average shot distance, but Wolfsburg is finishing 20% over xG for the entire season. It's not sustainable production.

Dortmund has had its defensive lapses away from home — look no further than the three-goal defensive collapse against 10-man Stuttgart two weeks ago — but they've conceded less than one expected goal per match at home this season. The Wolfsburg defense has also taken a clear step forward post World Cup break and is top five in xGA in that time frame.

My projections have just 3.01 goals projected and I'll bet the under 3.25 at the inflated total.

Dabbundo's Pick: Under 3.25 (-122 at BetRivers)