Dortmund vs Bayern Munich Odds
| Dortmund Odds | +300 |
| Bayern Munich Odds | -134 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -300 / +240 |
It's rare that a matchup of Germany's two biggest powers happens this far into the season and neither is at the top of the table. Bayern Munich lost 2-1 to third-tier German side Saarbrücken on Wednesday in the DFB-Pokal and Thomas Tuchel will be looking for a reaction from his squad on Saturday as they travel to take on Borussia Dortmund.
Both clubs are unbeaten in the new Bundesliga season, but a few draws for both have opened the door for Bayer Leverkusen to storm their way to the top of the Bundesliga table by two points over Bayern and four over Dortmund.
Bayern are one of the most fascinating underlying stats and performance profiles right now of Europe's elite sides. Their underlying xG numbers in Germany are more dominant than ever, but there's been some real cracks in the armor whenever they've played in the Champions League or in the DFB-Pokal. Bayern have been outplayed in two of their three CL ties against Galatasaray and Copenhagen and then started a mostly normal XI and created less than 1 xG against Saarbrücken in the midweek.
Which is closer to the real Bayern? Saturday's matchup will give us some insight. Here is my Dortmund vs Bayern Munich prediction.
Dortmund
Given their overall strength of schedule, Borussia Dortmund's season-long numbers look as though they've taken a solid step back this season. Dortmund haven't played Leverkusen, Leipzig or Bayern yet and have a +0.73 xG difference per 90 in Germany. Their performance on the road at Newcastle in the Champions League was probably their best of the entire season, winning xG 1.8-1.1 and the match 1-0.
Dortmund have one key area that they have massively improved this season: set pieces. The Schwarzgelben rank first in Germany in xG from set pieces and it's helped to mask a decline in their transition ability after Jude Bellingham's departure to Real Madrid. Dortmund are 13th in Germany in xG from counters.
The defense has held up in Germany to this point despite it looking rather mediocre on paper when you consider the lack of true ball stopping in the midfield. Edin Terzic has opted to take fewer chances in transition and possession to help keep better control of matches, given that his personnel isn't suited to a wide open, back and forth affair right now.
Dortmund have struggled in set piece defense, and they're sure to need to stop more than a few set pieces against Bayern.
Most of the replacement ball progression from the loss of Bellingham and Raphael Guerreiro has gone to Dutch midfielder/forward Donyell Malen. He's been Dortmund's best overall attacker and leads them in both passes and carries into the penalty area. Terzic has found the right balance to keep Dortmund as a clear top four side in Germany despite the lack of game changing star power that they've featured in the last few seasons with Jadon Sancho, Erling Haaland and Bellingham.
Bayern Munich
Bayern are power rated as the second-best team in Europe behind only Manchester City. They have not been consistently elite enough to warrant that this season. When you consider some of their recent puzzling underlying performances, you have to wonder what's wrong, relatively, with Bayern. It's true that Bayern are first in just about every relative metric that matters in the Bundesliga.
They put up seven goals on wide open Bochum, eight goals on nine-man Darmstadt (5.8 xG) and smushed mid-table Freiburg at home, 3-0. There have been plenty of dominant Bayern performances to point to and say that everything is just fine in Munich. But the cracks are more frequent this year.
Mainz have been one of the league's worst teams, and they played Bayern to a draw in underlying metrics. The Pokal result is certainly fluky, but Bayern were -1600 on the moneyline, started seven regular starters and created less than 1 xG. Galatasaray should have beaten them in the Champions League, Copenhagen held them under 1 xG and Manchester United were competitive in Munich.
Their dominance of the dregs of the Bundesliga is worth something, but it carries less weight for me when they go up and play teams closer to them in weight class. When they've played Leipzig away, they were down 2-0 inside a half. Leipzig, who haven't graded out well at all this season, also beat them in the German Supercup.
Bayern will be without the suspended Joshua Kimmich in midfield and he's their best passer. I worry about Bayern's build-up play without him. Konrad Laimer is a defense first, control-oriented midfielder and Leon Goretzka likes to get forward.
Dortmund vs Bayern Munich
Prediction
Despite this being a so-called rivalry of the top two German teams, it hasn't been particularly competitive between the two sides. Bayern have won nine and drawn one of the last 10 competitive matches between the two clubs since the 2019-20 season.
The absence of Kimmich, the inconsistency of Bayern and the overvalued nature of the German champions in the market leaves me bucking the recent history and trusting Dortmund to get a result at home.
My projections make Bayern +101 to take all three points from this match, so I'd bet Dortmund to get a result at +105 or better.
