It's the final weekend in Europe before the November international break, where many of the European Championship places will be claimed ahead of next summer in Germany. Chelsea vs Manchester City is the headline match in England, but there are numerous intriguing tilts across the continent in the other top five leagues, including Stuttgart vs Dortmund and more.
Between the Rome derby, a top four clash in Germany and Jude Bellingham's potential return for Real Madrid, here are my European soccer predictions for the non-EPL games this weekend.
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European Soccer Predictions
| Stuttgart Odds | +145 |
| Dortmund Odds | +160 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +175 |
The market has seriously downgraded Stuttgart after losing striker Serhou Guirassy to a hamstring injury. His absence in the last two matches has coincided with two consecutive losses on the scoresheet, but the underlying metrics suggest that Stuttgart's attacking output hasn't taken a hit at all. Stuttgart lost to Hoffenheim and Heidenheim in consecutive matches, but created 3.6 and 2.6 xG in the two losses.
There's some air in the numbers for Stuttgart at the start of the season because they haven't played Leverkusen, Bayern or Dortmund yet in the calendar. But when you compare them across the board to Borussia Dortmund, it's hard to differentiate between the two sides.
Dortmund have major deficiencies in defensive transition and in defense in general. They've conceded at least 1 xG to every competent attacking unit they've played and conceded 1.5+ to Milan, PSG, Bayern, Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt. Despite the relatively easy schedule overall, Dortmund are seventh in Germany in non-penalty xG allowed. Stuttgart don't have a ton of depth to overcome the loss of Guirassy, but they make up for it by getting shots from all over the pitch.
That's why I'm particularly encouraged that the early season performance from them is somewhat sustainable. This isn't one or two players playing above their levels, but rather an entire unit progressing together. If you remember back to last season, Stuttgart had above average numbers underlying despite their place in the German relegation picture.
I make Stuttgart a favorite here and would bet them draw no bet at -130 or better.
Pick: Stuttgart PK (-130 or better)
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| Real Madrid Odds | -300 |
| Valencia Odds | +750 |
| Draw | +425 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +125 |
Real Madrid had a dominant win on the scoreboard against Braga in the Champions League on Wednesday, but the defense continues to be a major area of concern for this group. Real conceded 1.6 xG, including 0.9 non-penalty xGA at home against an above average Portuguese side. It continues the trend for Madrid of conceding more goals and chances than you'd expect given a team of their caliber. The attack should be buoyed by the return of Jude Bellingham to the starting XI, and Carlo Ancelotti has given him a ton of freedom to get forward.
His goal scoring output won't continue at the rate it's been going, but his goals have helped to keep the attack well above average in Spain. There's real defensive regression still to come for Real Madrid. You'd expect them to over perform their defensive xGA with Thibaut Courtois in goal, but with him out and some average goalkeeping, they won't keep allowing eight goals for every 12.8 xGA.
Real rank seventh in shots allowed in Spain, fifth in NPxG per 90 allowed and they don't stop ball progression or crosses. Valencia have struggled for goals and chances this season, but the defense and underlying process is right there to keep them in this game.
Real Madrid are giving up 1.5 xG to every competent attacking side that they face. The Valencia team total is too low despite their struggles for offense — Valencia are 15th in xGF but 11th in field tilt.
Pick: Valencia Team Total Over 0.5 (-125)
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| Lazio Odds | +200 |
| Roma Odds | +162 |
| Draw | +200 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +135 / -175 |
Roma's defensive numbers have taken a step back overall this season and that has lowered their ultimate ceiling. Especially when you combine that regression with poor goalkeeping and shot stopping from Rui Patricio, the goal prevention for José Mourinho isn't nearly as good and I've been much more hesitant in backing them as a result.
This is technically a road match for Roma in the Stadio Olimpico for the Rome derby against Lazio. As much as I'm a bit down on Roma relatively, they are still a class above their city rivals Lazio. Lazio are average in every category in Serie A. They rank 11th in xGF and 13th in shots in attack. Defensively, they rank eighth overall and 10th in shots.
Now that the luck of their extreme finishing variance has run out at both ends this season, the results have shown what they really are. Lazio have been average in their CL group as well. Roma are down to sixth in defense and fourth in attack and the week to week consistency isn't as solid. If I zero out home field advantage, I have Roma as a +115 moneyline favorite on a neutral. I'd bet Roma draw no bet at -135 or better.
