Best Bets Across Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1 & La Liga

It's a great slate outside of the Premier League this weekend with Bayern Munich hosting Dortmund, AC Milan vs Napoli and PSG vs Lyon. I'm here to take you through the other main four leagues in Europe to provide you my projections and best bets for the weekend slate.

If you'd like to see my projections for the Premier League, along with all three European competitions (Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League), you can find them here.

If you'd like to listen to the audio form of this article, I am also part of the Wondergoal Podcast with my co-hosts Michael Leboff and Anthony Dabbundo.

If you'd like to see picks from me for all European leagues, you can follow them in the Action Network App.

Bundesliga

Projections

Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim 

It seems every year there is a team that has the talent level of a top half club and has good underlying metrics but can’t seem to put results together. Hoffenheim are that team this year. 

Since we came back from the World Cup, Hoffenheim have picked up four points in 10 matches with their lone win coming right before the international break over Hertha Berlin. They have been running incredibly cold defensively, conceding 23 goals off of 14.7 xG over a 10 match period.

Werder Bremen have over-performed offensively by 7.7 goals this season and are reliant on creating a few high quality chances per match.

They are one of the worst defensive teams in the Bundesliga. Bremen have conceded the most goals and xG from open play of anyone in Germany. Before the international break, they got dismantled by Gladbach, who created 3.4 xG and five big scoring chances.

I understand that Hoffenheim have been in bad form, but the underlying numbers suggest that they are not as bad as it seems.

I have their draw no bet line projected at -114, so I love the value on them at the current price of +118.

Pick: Hoffenheim – Draw No Bet (+118)

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Serie A

Projections

Bologna vs Udinese

Udinese are sitting at  -1 xGD, while Bologna are at -5.2 on the year. Now, Udinese had this torrid start to the season where at one point they had won six straight matches, which included a 4-0 win over Roma and a 3-1 win over Inter.

However, they then went through a stretch where they had just one win in 17 matches, but they were under-performing during that stretch. In those 17 matches the had a -6 goal differential, but only a -1.5 xGD.

Udinese tend to pay a very direct counter attacking style out of their 3-5-2 and attack in wide areas with their full backs pretty much always getting forward in attack. Bologna struggled with this in the previous meeting, as well as defending in transition, as Udinese put up 1.9 xG. 

I have Udinese's draw no bet line projected at -110, so I love the value on them at +135 with that wager.

Pick: Udinese – Draw No Bet (+135) 

La Liga

Projections

Villarreal vs Real Sociedad

I'm not sure that Villarreal should be favored here, even if they are at home. Ever since Quique Setién took over on October 26th, Villarreal have been average with a +0.15 npxGD. Real Sociedad have a +8.6 npxGD over that same span.

This is the same Villarreal team that just got knocked out of the Europa Conference League by a middling Anderlecht side, have lost 3-1 to Elche and 4-2 to Mallorca.

Real Sociedad are like the Newcastle of La Liga. They love to set pressing traps in the opponents third of the pitch and force them to play the ball out wide. They do it incredibly effective too, as they are number one in Spain in PPDA. Under Setién, Villarreal’s Offensive PPDA is at 11.09, which is around the La Liga average. 

Villarreal’s defense has been below average this season, ranking 11th in npxG allowed. The problem is that once opponents enter their final third those chances are ending up in a box entry far more often than they did under Unai Emery.

I actually have Real Sociedad's draw no bet line projected at -136, so I think it's a little crazy that they're sitting at +120 at Caesars. 

Pick: Real Sociedad – Draw No Bet (+120)

Ligue 1

Projections

Monaco vs Strasbourg

I think the total here is too low. Strasbourg are one of these most high-event style teams in France, as their matches average 2.91 xG per 90 minutes. They’re coming off back-to-back performances where they created 2.1 xG against Marseille and 2.8 xG against Angers. 

The Monaco defense has not been good this season. They’re allowing 1.24 xG per 90 minutes, which is 11th in Ligue 1. The Strasbourg defense has also been really bad this season, allowing 1.61 xG per 90 minutes. They have had some bad penalty luck – as they’ve conceded 11 penalties – but they are still allowing 1.4 npxG.

A lot has changed since opening weekend when these two faced off, but that match did end Monaco winning 2-1 and 3.6 xG were created.

I like the value on over 3 at +117.

Pick: Over 3 (+117)