Sunday Global Soccer Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Bet Roma vs Napoli, Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

The Premier League has the weekend off because of FA Cup fixtures in the Round of 32, but the rest of the top five European leagues are in action with normal domestic games this weekend.

There's high profile matchups from around the continent as Napoli battles Roma and Lazio takes on Fiorentina to highlight the Serie A card. In Germany, Bayern Munich host the surging Eintracht Frankfurt, while Bayer Leverkusen host Borussia Dortmund as both teams look to save their seasons.

In Spain, Real Madrid host Real Sociedad in a battle of the second and third-placed teams in the division. There's a bunch of fascinating spots and matchups, and here are my three favorite spots to target.

Global Soccer Odds & Picks

Juventus vs. Monza

Juventus lost 15 points in the league standings as a result of the recent investigation into the club's finances and transfer dealings. That plummeted them into the bottom half of the league table for now, but hte club is appealing the decision. Juventus just beat Monza 2-1 in the Coppa Italia two weeks ago and the two sides will meet again in Turin in the league matchup.

It's a tricky spot for Juventus, who have a midweek Coppa Italia quarterfinal with Lazio on the schedule as a potential lookahead. The team is finally getting healthier with Federico Chiesa back from his long term injury, but the underlying numbers continue to underwhelm.

Juventus' defense was the story of their first half of the campaign, but the underlying xG data suggested they were running really hot and were fortunate to not have conceded more goals. In the last three matches, Juventus have since conceded nine goals to Napoli, Monza and Atalanta, without recording a clean sheet.

The defense has major issues defending set pieces, where they rank dead last in Italy in xG allowed per set piece. The defense is fifth overall in xG allowed and has other underlying numbers — like shots allowed and passes into the area allowed — that suggest the defense is merely above-average in Italy and not nearly as good as the market suggests.

Monza had really poor underlying numbers in Serie B last year, but added a lot of talent in the summer window and the club is trending up solidly since then. From the beginning of the season until the end of September, Monza had a -1.52 xG difference per 90.

Since November began, they've improved considerably. The defense has taken a huge step forward — Monza have allowed 1.03 xGA per match since then and have a positive xG differential. They played to roughly a draw on xG with Milan, Fiorentina and Inter over the last two months.

The market was higher than I was on Monza coming into the season, but now the market is lower than I am. Monza are marginally worse than Juventus and on the road, but I can't get to the full one goal underdog that the market suggests.

Dabbundo's Pick: Monza +1 (-110)

The must-have app for Soccer bettors

The best soccer betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Napoli vs. Roma

My power ratings have these two as two of the three best teams in Italy. Napoli are running away with the league title thanks to breakout seasons for Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Victor Osimhen in the heart of the attack.

It's the number one offense in the league and one of the most dazzling in all of Europe against a classic José Mourinho side that defends the penalty area extremely well and gives away nothing in its own end of the pitch.

Roma are the best team in the league on a per set basis at both ends of the pitch. They don't give away much of anything defensively in terms of big scoring chances and force teams to shoot from distance. They concede more shots per match than a couple other defenses in the league, but no club has allowed fewer xG or big scoring chances.

Napoli should be able to successfully tilt the field and have final third possession against Roma in this matchup, but there are some holes in transition defense for Napoli and Roma could exploit them there.

Roma have a classic Mourinho attacking profile too. They're just ninth in penalty area touches and 14th in progressive passes, but they've created the most big scoring chances through direct attacks and have run poorly from a finishing variance perspective.

When these two sides met in Rome, Napoli had just 0.9 xG in the match and won it 1-0. Goals should be hard to be come by and the Roma defense is well built to slow down this Napoli attack.

Dabbundo's Picks: Roma +0.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 goals (-110)

Real Madrid vs. Real Sociedad

It's a really tough turnaround for Real Madrid just three days after a Madrid derby victory against Atletico Madrid on Thursday. Real Madrid won that match 3-1 in the Copa del Rey, but they had to play an extra 30 minutes and kept all of their key players on the pitch for the extra time to secure the victory.

Sociedad also played and lost 1-0 to Barcelona on Wednesday, but the extra day of rest and 30 fewer minutes will certainly be an added advantage in this matchup in Madrid.

If Sociedad have a weakness defensively, it is that La Real allow too many crosses into the penalty area as a whole. But Real Madrid don't use crossing for their attack particularly often — they rank second to last in all of Spain in crosses completed into the penalty area.

Otherwise, Sociedad have been one of the best defenses in Spain and Europe. They have allowed the fourth-fewest xGA per match of any defense in Europe's top five leagues. Only Roma, Barcelona and Athletic Club have conceded fewer chances this season.

It's hard to go toe-to-toe in an open and transitional game with Real Madrid and come out the victor. Their wing and midfield talent is way too good in space. But, La Real can grind this game to a halt, pick their spots to exploit Real Madrid's overrated defense and keep this game highly competitive.

Dabbundo's Pick: Real Sociedad +0.5 (+125)