On Sunday evening, the Aces and Sun will meet for the final time in the regular season as both teams look to make the final push heading into the playoffs.
The bookmakers opened with Las Vegas laying 5.5 points at home to pair with a total of 161.5.
While there’s no question the Aces have been dominant in this series, winning eight of the last 10 meetings, I’ve spotted an interesting angle with the total that could be of equal value.
Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas Aces Prediction
If we focus solely on the Aces, the under is 5-1 in September and 10-3 since returning from the Olympic break. Given what we’re about to outline about the Aces’ improved defense and slower tempo, there’s enough reasoning here to warrant a play on this game staying under the BetMGM total of 161.5 points.
Sun vs. Aces Pick: Under 161.5 Points (-110)
Sun vs. Aces Odds
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 160 -110/-110 | +180 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 160 -110/-110 | -220 |
- Sun vs. Aces point spread: Sun +5 | Aces -5
- Sun vs. Aces over/under: 160 total points scored
- Sun vs. Aces moneylines: Sun +180 | Aces -220
Connecticut Sun: Avoid A Regular Season Sweep
The Sun will surely try to avoid getting swept by Las Vegas.
Connecticut came up short in the two previous meetings despite doing well to limit one of the Aces' biggest strengths, their perimeter shooting.
Las Vegas failed to exceed more than six 3-pointers in either game while shooting a combined 12-for-44 (27.2%) from the perimeter.
Those numbers align with what we’ve seen from Connecticut all season. It allows the fewest field goals (6.4) and attempts (20.7) from beyond the arc of any team in the league.
As a team with the best Defensive Rating (94.0), the Sun has enough quality to keep the Aces at bay.
However, it’s the offense that hasn’t always looked entirely convincing.
With a 27-10 record, Connecticut has already matched its wins from last season. Yet, its Offensive Rating is down from 103.2 to 102.1.
When you think of the teams with the best offenses, it’s no surprise to see the Liberty and Aces atop that list.
Connecticut is now down to fifth in that category, and one has to wonder if the Sun can overcome such a gap when facing the quality teams.
Las Vegas Aces: Constant Improvement On Defense
The Aces’ offense set an incredibly high bar last year, shooting 48.6% from the floor. That number is down to 45% this season, while their Offensive Rating dropped from 113.0 to 105.4.
What’s interesting is that Las Vegas is averaging roughly the same number of 3-pointers in 2024 (9.2) as in 2023 (9.3).
And while A’ja Wilson is presumably on her way to a third MVP thanks to a career-high in scoring (27 PPG), it’s a bit of a shock to learn that the overall team offense for Las Vegas has taken a step back.
One thing that’s noteworthy is the Aces are scoring even fewer points in the paint (33.8 vs. 38.4) compared to last year.
Based on those findings, one logical assumption is that they’re struggling with the quality of their shot selection.
Wilson might even be the perfect player to use for examining this theory because while she’s scoring more points, her field goal percentage is down almost four points from 55.7% to 51.9%.
The difficulty now would be trying to overhaul those deep-rooted habits.
A quicker solution to improving their play might be to put more of their effort on the defensive end of the court.
Sun vs. Aces: Take The Under On The Total
Betting Pick & Prediction
After enduring months of criticism regarding their defense from head coach Becky Hammon, the Aces look like they’re finally turning the corner.
Over their last ten games, Las Vegas has a 97.5 Defensive Rating, which is even better than in the previous year (97.5) when it won a second-straight WNBA title.
However, the biggest surprise involves how the Aces are going about their business.
In addition to playing better defense, Las Vegas has dramatically slowed down its pace of play.
Through the first 27 games, the Aces led the league with 82.19 possessions per 40 minutes. Since then, that number is down to 79.10.
Another interesting finding during that span is that nine of the 12 teams are averaging fewer than 80 possessions per 40 minutes, which is quite a jump from just three teams earlier in the year.
One explanation might be that teams are simply weary as they near the finish line. Another would be that the pace toward the end of the campaign is more likely to reflect what we see in the postseason.
Nonetheless, according to our Action Labs database, the under has been on a nice run this September, as evidenced by a 21-13 mark for 6.36 units.
Aces vs. Sun Pick: Under 161.5 Points (-110)
