Heat vs. Nuggets Odds & Betting Predictions - March 1, 2024

Heat at Nuggets

3:00 am • TNT

Miami Heat

4-5

97 - 103

Denver Nuggets

7-3

103

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Heat 4-5	+6	+6.5-112	o214.5-109	+210
Nuggets 7-3	u221.5	-6.5-108	u214.5-111	-257

Friday 3:00 a.m.

March 01, 2024

Ball ArenaDenver

A.Gordon o5.5 Rebs (Live)-130

0.38u

Betting at halftime. Gordon rebounds skyrocket without Murray who now won’t return tonight.

DEN -6-114

1.25u

… good teams 7.5 to 4.5 fav at home Overall: 219-121-6,64% (ROI:24%) Season:20-19-0,51% (ROI:-2%)

MIA +6.5-108

0.5u

J.Murray u21.5 Pts-120

0.42u

@propbomb

J.Murray u21.5 Pts-120

Avg. 18.2 PPG Per-36 MIN vs. MIA in Finals. 6th fewest PPG vs. PG L30 days. MIA ranks inside top-5 in PnR BH, Transition, & FTs allowed - 53% of his PPG. No K. Love, MIA will go small w/ Jimmy, Caleb, & Haywood defense. #PlayerProps

M.Porter o5.5 Rebs-140

B.Adebayo u34.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-118

Adebayo under this line in 5/L6 vs Jokic, dating back three seasons. His usage and production without Herro sees a very small uptick - it’s a bigger spot now for Butler, Rozier, Duncan. Overall averaging 33.6 PRA in FEB (with all other main Heat guys in and out of lineup) - but I have this as a bottom tier matchup for Bam.

J.Butler Double-Double (Yes)+750

0.25u

MIA +5-112

@JayMoneyIsMoney23

Over 212.5-105

Via Sean Little

J.Butler o29.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-120

0.83u

It’s a NBA Finals rematch tonight with the Miami Heat visiting the Denver Nuggets who just whipped the Kings last night. One player that I expect to turn up the Heat is Jimmy Butler. Butler has been tremendous over his last few games out of the All-Star Break with 38 and 35 PRA. This aligns with his post-ASB numbers from last season where he averaged 25.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game. The setting was different in the Finals, but Jimmy has exceeded 29.5 PRA in 5/7 games vs the Nuggets over the past few seasons while averaging 35.7 per game. I expect Jimmy to show up tonight and put forward a well rounded effort while exceeding 29.5 PRA.

J.Butler o9.5 Rebs+Ast-130

0.77u

MIA +5.5-110

1.5u

Under 216.5-110

2.73u

MIA +4.5-110

$159.50

Featured Insight
The Heat have averaged 13.4 turnovers/game on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season -- 10th-lowest in the NBA; the Nuggets have forced 13.1 turnovers per game at home since the start of the 2022-23 season -- T-6th-lowest in the NBA.

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Featured Insight
The Nuggets have allowed 12.7 second chance points per game at home this season -- 6th-best in the NBA; the Heat have averaged 11.7 second chance points per game on the road this season -- 3rd-lowest in the NBA.

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NBA Public Betting

Nuggets are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
Nuggets are 3-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nuggets are 1-2 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Nuggets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Nuggets' 7 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nuggets	4-5-1	3-3-1	1-2	2-5-1	2-0
Heat	4-5	0-4	4-1	2-3	2-2

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nuggets	8-2	5-2	3-0	6-2	2-0
Heat	4-5	2-2	2-3	1-4	3-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nuggets	7-3	N/A	N/A	6-2	1-1
Heat	4-5	N/A	N/A	3-2	1-3

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Feb 29th	SAC	W 117-96	-9.5 W	U 227	DEN -415
Feb 26th	@GSW	W 119-103	+2 W	U 233	DEN +101
Feb 24th	@POR	W 127-112	-8.5 W	O 216	DEN -352
Feb 23rd	WAS	W 130-110	-15.5 W	O 233	DEN -1600
Feb 15th	SAC	L 98-102	-5.5 L	U 228.5	SAC -210