Bucks vs Warriors Prediction, Pick Tonight
Here's everything you need to know about Bucks vs. Warriors on Wednesday, March 6 — our expert NBA prediction and betting picks for today.
The Milwaukee Bucks head to the Bay Area on Wednesday to take on the Golden State Warriors in a cross-conference NBA showdown. Bucks vs Warriors tips off at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN. Heading into this one, the status of Giannis Antetokounmpo was a question mark — almost literally, as he was questionable for the game with an Achilles injury. But Bucks coach Doc Rivers told reporters around 8:30 p.m. ET that Giannis will play.
Now, the Bucks vs Warriors odds have the Warriors as 2-point favorites (-2) over the Bucks with the total set at over/under 229.5 points at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The Bucks have won six in a row and are coming off a victory over the Clippers in Los Angeles, while the Warriors got manhandled in a 52-point loss to the Celtics on Sunday.
Where does the betting value lie in this one? Let's get to our Bucks vs Warriors prediction and Bucks vs Warriors pick.
Pick: Over 226 | Play to 228.5
As you can see above, the market has now moved all the way to 229.5 across the board on the total, which is our Bucks vs Warriors best bet. If you're looking to place a bet on this game for pure entertainment value, a small unit (like 0.25 units) play on the over here might not be a bad sweat. But this is no longer a pick we can give out with real valeu.
Bucks vs Warriors Prediction
Pick: Over 226 | Play to 228.5
Bucks Betting Outlook
The Milwaukee Bucks are a revamped team coming out of the All-Star Break. The defense is so much better with new head coach Doc Rivers having some time to practice and implement some changes.
As I'll detail, the NBA has been trending toward league-wide unders because of the way the fouls and rules are being reinterpreted. That may not be the case for Milwaukee, though, as the total is dropping in Bucks games because they get to the line so often. If these teams take a shooting-and-spacing approach, the line movement won't add up with the way these teams would be playing.
Warriors Betting Outlook
The Warriors just allowed 140 points to the Celtics and now take on the Bucks just two days later. I don't expect a similar barrage, but the Bucks can still score with the best of them.
The Warriors are relying on young talent with the absence of Andrew Wiggins and the decreased role of Kevon Looney. The younger players sometimes miss a beat on rotations, close out a bit slower and have moments of getting lost.
It will sort itself out over time — especially with Draymond Green being the vocal leader of the defense — but until then, expect some road bumps and target Warriors overs.
Bucks vs Warriors Odds
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -108 | 229.5 -112o / -108u | +120 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -112 | 229.5 -112o / -108u | -142 |
Totals are dropping across the league. Unders have been cashing at a rate near 70% since the All-Star break, as the referees are swallowing their whistles a bit and allowing more contact. Teams that strive to get to the free-throw line are seeing fewer opportunities, and thus, the offensive efficiency has fallen off.
In this Bucks vs Warriors game, I think the move toward the under doesn't apply to the style of play here.
