Donovan Mitchell might have been a Knick last summer in another universe. Instead, his Cleveland Cavaliers will face Jalen Brunson's high-scoring squad from the Big Apple. The Cavaliers have size and athleticism, the Knicks have determination and shooting. But how do we bet this thing? Let's take a look at the series odds and betting preview for Cavaliers vs. Knicks.
The Most Important Thing: Cavaliers Starters
The Cavaliers starting five dominated this matchup in the regular season. The Knicks won the season series 3-1 on account of two things: Jarrett Allen played a total of 65 minutes in the series, and the Knicks' bench destroyed the Cavaliers' bench.
Both of those things are likely to be flipped in the playoffs.
Most notably, Caris LeVert’s minutes are going to be difficult. Not only did the Cavs lose by 25.3 points per 100 possessions with LeVert on the floor, but Jalen Brunson shot 8-of-14 from the field with LeVert defending him for 20 points while the Knicks scored 63 points in the 10 minutes LeVert had the primary matchup against him.
LeVert fared better than Donovan Mitchell, however, as Brunson scored 36 points on 14-of-20 with Mitchell as the matchup defender. However, with Isaac Okoro as the primary defender, Brunson shot just 2-of-11 in the majority of the minutes.
The Cavs’ starters, for the most part, won their minutes by a considerable margin. The Knicks bench has surged behind Immanuel Quickley, and those minutes will be important in the matchup. But the minutes of the other Knicks won’t be enough with the Cavs extending starters and reducing the rotation.
The Cavaliers’ best players have the advantage over the Knicks’ best players, and the Cavs’ best players will play more minutes.
The Pendulum: Julius Randle
Randle averaged 23 points per game vs. the Cavaliers, shooting 10-of-23 from 3-point range at 43.5%. Outside of those 3s, Randle shot 41.3% from the 2-point range. For the season, Randle shot just 34% from deep.
Most of the 3s for Randle were generated off over-helping by the Cavaliers off soft coverage in pick-and-roll. If the Cavs either contain the guards better or switch in the pick-and-pop, it’ll limit Randle’s damage.
Randle’s last playoff appearance went disastrously wrong; he struggled in the first-round loss to the Hawks two years ago. But if Randle performs better, if he can space out the Cavs’ big men and consistently find (and hit) those 3s, it’ll balance the game back toward where the Knicks want it.
The Mirage: New York's Offensive Rebounding Edge
The Knicks hammered the Cavs on the glass, beating them in second chance points 61-26. That should be a huge edge for New York in this matchup.
Problem: Out of 192 minutes in the season series, Jarrett Allen and Isaac Okoro both played 65 minutes total.
The Cavs had the highest defensive rebound percentage with each on the floor and extremely low defensive rebound percentages with them on the bench.
Now, the Knicks put up great efficiency on their offensive rebounds when Allen was on the floor against them this season: 20 points on 12 offensive rebounds. But the Knicks had 41 points on 39 offensive rebounds with Allen not on the floor. The Knicks only grabbed 6 offensive rebounds against the Allen-Mobley-Okoro lineups.
If Jarrett Allen gets hurt, this flips. But ultimately, one of the Knicks’ biggest advantages dissipates when the Cavs play their best players more.
The Bet: Cavs -1.5 series line +104 (2.5u), -2.5 +210 (1u)
Ultimately, the Cavs’ starters are too much for the Knicks. Tom Thibodeau is 11-17 ATS as a dog in the playoffs and 6-22 straight up. The Knicks are dogs in this matchup, and for good reason; Cleveland is much better than their record shows.
If Jarrett Allen and Isaac Okoro’s injuries keep them out for significant parts of this series, the whole thing can flip. But if Thibodeau, Randle, and the Knicks are not great at home against a Cavaliers team that has flirted with being elite at times, has the ability to play big, and will be way less prone to over helping? It’s enough to get me to not only back the Cavaliers to finish this in five but sprinkle the alternative spread.
Pick: Cavaliers -1.5 (+104) |
Pick: Cavaliers -2.5 (+210) |
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