Bucks vs Clippers Picks, Prediction Tonight
Here's everything you need to know about Bucks vs Clippers on Monday, March 4 — our expert prediction and betting picks for tonight.
The Milwaukee Bucks host the Los Angeles Clippers tonight, with the Bucks originally 5.5-point favorites against the Clippers. However, on Monday afternoon about four hours before tipoff, the Bucks announced that Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is dealing with Achilles tendinitis, would not play.
After the news that Giannis would miss Monday's game against the Clippers, the Bucks vs Clippers odds moved to Los Angeles -1.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook. The total is now over/under 225.5 points, having moved from over/under 225.5 points before the news. Bucks vs Clippers tips off at 8 p.m. ET on NBA TV on Monday.
Let's get to our Clippers vs Bucks picks and Clippers vs Bucks prediction tonight.
Pick: James Harden 10+ Rebounds (+1000)
Bucks coach Doc Rivers tells reporters that Giannis Antetokounmpo is out for tonight’s game.
Rivers said Antetokounmpo has been dealing with the left Achilles tendinitis for the last few games. https://t.co/uG4mID2WOk
— Eric Nehm (@eric_nehm) March 4, 2024
Bucks vs Clippers Prediction
Pick: James Harden 10+ Rebounds (+1000)
Bucks Betting Outlook
Editor's note: Giannis Antetokounmpo is out for Monday night's game.
Since this is a write up targeted to a Harden rebound betting angle, the most important note about the Milwaukee Bucks is that so many of their possessions, both in halfcourt sets and transition, have Brook Lopez on the perimeter.
Lopez has developed into an elite 3 point shooter, and the floor spacing he provides the Bucks allows their stars the lanes to drive at will. However, the result to the opposing defense — in this case Ivica Zubac — will be brought out to the perimeter because Lopez cannot be left alone.
There will be plenty of opportunities created for Harden to scoop up rebounds and start the break without any big men in the paint.
Clippers Betting Outlook
The Clippers are on the second leg of a road back to back between two contending teams. First it was the Minnesota Timberwolves in a low scoring physical battle where Clippers edged out the Wovles 89-88. Now they travel to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks which presents another physical test against guys like Giannis, Dame, and even Bobby Portis who is a bruiser.
Although Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have been playing most back to backs this season, winding those down before the playoffs would be a wise idea — especially against two very physical teams.
In this case, I think it makes sense to take some Harden props at varying exposures and ladder them. Triple-double and rebound escalators stood out the most to me also considering the matchup situation.
If players are ruled in, the total ticks up quite a bit and he can still get these stats in a fast-paced game, and if they are ruled out, then Harden's usage rate sky rockets.
The biggest value to obtain is the highest odds so that's why I chose +1000 for 10 rebounds, but I am open to over eight boards at +375 and over 5.5 at +100.
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Bucks vs Clippers Picks, Odds
| Clippers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 227 -110 / -110 | +164 |
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 227 -110 / -110 | -198 |
I suspect the market angle is to play this immediately. Long odds often don't last if there is any edge, and shoot around reports will become available in the early afternoon to indicate status on the Clippers forwards.
If they are added to the injury report even as questionable, the pricing on these will change drastically. I advise getting in early!
Pick: James Harden 10+ Rebounds +1000, or Harden Over 5.5 Rebounds (+100, 0.6u) with 0.2u Escalators on 8+ REB /10+ REB / Triple-Double
