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Los Angeles Lakers
Win Total: 42.5/43.5 | Moore's Projection: 47.1
Bet/Lean/Pass: A very tepid over 42.5 2 units.
Handicap
I bet the over early in the offseason, based purely on my projection. It was just a numbers play.
There are lost of number reasons to go the other way and bet an over, but as the number has dropped, I'm pretty locked in here.
For the negative, it's all about health. LeBron James played 71 games at age 39; Anthony Davis played 76. How are the Lakers possibly going to get anywhere near as good health for those two with James 40 years old and Davis' injury history?
There is also a terrifying trend to support the under. The Lakers were 11-4 in games decided by three points or less last season and made the playoffs. Those teams are 23-8 to the under in the following season since 2011.
So that doesn't feel good. My confidence in the Lakers was absolutely frozen by that stat.
Here's the case for the over.
Yes, the Big Two were healthy last year, uncommonly so, and that matters. But when you asked the Lakers all throughout last season why they were struggling, the answer was always convincingly health. Lost of mediocre teams blame health. But LeBron James is at a point in his career where he will be pretty honest in his assessments, but he really believed that their lack of continuity due to health was an issue.
They just had no way to put together cohesive lineups. Rui Hachimura, offseason signing Gabe Vincent, and Jared Vanderbilt (who is still not ready for this season) all missed serious time.
Common consensus will always be that what matters is the star players, but the Lakers couldn't cover for their defensive weaknesses in the Austin Reaves-D'Angelo Russell backcourt. With Reaves, Russell, and Anthony Davis — supposedly the best defensive player on the planet in some minds — the Lakers had a 132 defensive rating. There were no real alternatives to go to with their injuries and no continuity in covering for them.
With Hachimura on the floor with James and Davis, the Lakers were 34-19, a 53-win pace. That's a huge number.
I'm not quite as certain that Darvin Ham was the worst coach to ever roam a sideline as so many Lakers fans elected to believer last season. That's a pretty common reaction when you find out the roster isn't as good as you thought it was.
However, even if I think Ham got a raw deal, what matters is that the players believe in new coach J.J. Redick, or at least believe more in him to start than they did Ham to end. That bump is significant. All the vibes are great in LA and they're all raving about the improved X's and O's.
Now, the Lakers had a top-10 half-court offense last season despite whatever X's and O's Ham had up his sleeve. But better preparation raises the ceiling.
The bigger improvement needs to be in the defensive department and the 18th-ranked half-court defense.
(Again, I will note that with Davis, who believes he is the DPOY, on the floor, the Lakers' defense was a whopping 0.3 points better per 100 possessions. Probably need to have more impact than that.)
But better continuity will help significantly with defensive communication, and that will help improving the defense. My over play is in part a fade of the idea that the Lakers had exceptional health last year. It's true that Davis and James will likely miss more games this season. But even if their number of games played regress to somewhere between 50 and 60, better overall health likely gets them over this number.
The bones of the house are good. James is still a top-10 player, somehow, at age 40. Davis' individual numbers last year were phenomenal. They're likely to pursue trades in-season to improve.
I still like the over.
TRENDS
- Teams who were 75th percentile in wins in games decided by 3-points or less and win percentage in games decided by 3-points or less and made the playoffs last season are 23-8 to the under the following season
- Teams who were not top-5 in offense or defense and won more than 45 games are 20-16 to the under the following season
How It Goes Over
Redick reinvigorates the team tactically, Davis and James still play enough games to build a floor, and some internal development from Max Christie and others along with a bounceback season for Austin Reaves has them cruise to the over, putting them in line for the division.
How It Goes Under
Davis and James miss more games, the roster is still not great, and Redick's smarter coaching doesn't translate to wins in a tough conference as they slip to .500 and another play-in appearance… or worse.
Sneaky Guy I Like
He was given more opportunities than most guys in his skill level because of his Klutch connection, but fans seem to be out on Cam Reddish… and he was pretty good last year? He really is a pretty good defender, the numbers with him were good, and he took a small uptick on 3-point percentage last season. I kind of think he can help. (There are not great options for sneaky guys on this team. It's the Lakers. Everyone's overrated.)
Data courtesy ofNBA.com/stats, Basketball-Reference.com, DunksAndThrees.com, and PositiveResidual.com.
