Kings vs Nuggets Picks for Wednesday, Feb. 14
Here's everything you need to know about Kings vs. Nuggets on Wednesday, Feb. 14 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Kings' slip into the abyss over the last month has continued in recent days with losses to the Thunder and Suns, and now a tough test awaits in Denver on Wednesday night on the second half of a back-to-back.
Can Sacramento find a way against a Denver team that has dropped off just a bit in recent games? Let's get to our Kings vs. Nuggets pick and prediction.
Kings vs Nuggets Prediction
Pick: Kings +5.5
Kings Betting Outlook
The Kings certainly haven't had the easiest go of it over the last month, winning seven of their 15 games and slipping further down the standings and out of the top six in the West.
With that said, it's had nothing to do with their high-powered offense slowing down. Sacramento's actually scoring nearly two more points per 100 possessions over the last month, but its poor defense has somehow gotten even worse, slipping by nearly three points per 100 possessions.
One of the biggest reasons for this is Sacramento's perimeter defense, which has given up 3-pointers at a ridiculous 43% clip over the last month, according to Cleaning the Glass. Sure, the Kings have ranked dead last in this area all season, but watching the numbers diminish even further — by three percentage points — is cause for concern.
It also doesn't help matters that the frequency at which opponents are taking 3s on the Kings has grown over this time as well.
Of course, we should touch on where the Kings might be able to win this game — which is at the rim and from beyond the arc.
They've ranked inside the top 10 of the league over the last month and over the course of the season in shooting percentage at the rim and have seen a slight boost in their outside shooting numbers in the last 30 days.
Like a lot of NBA games these days, this is likely going to be a game won and lost on the perimeter considering that's where the Kings take the vast majority of their shots.
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Nuggets Betting Outlook
Of course, the Nuggets are a team that can buck the trend of spamming the 3-point line due to the presence of Nikola Jokic. They rank eighth in shooting frequency at the rim this season, but curiously, they've chosen to take fewer shots from within four feet over the last month and opt for more in the midrange.
All told, things have been pretty weird in general for Denver, which ranks just 21st in offensive efficiency over the last month despite a shiny 9-5 record.
Things don't necessarily seem to be getting any better either, considering it hasn't mustered an offensive rating of 103 or better in its previous two games — which came against poor defensive sides in the Bucks and these same Kings.
All the while, this defense has continued to look very pedestrian.
The Nuggets rank very poorly at the rim over the last month of play and have also struggled to shoot the 3.
They don't exactly seem incredibly well-positioned to take advantage of what could be a soft matchup here, particularly with Jamal Murray entering as questionable.
The good news is that they're doing an acceptable job of defending at the rim and on the arc over the last month with perfectly average opponent shooting numbers.
Kings vs Nuggets Odds
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 -108 | 229.5 -110o / -110u | +170 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 -112 | 229.5 -110o / -110u | -205 |
The Kings may come in here with the worse form if we're looking at win-loss record, but Sacramento has actually done a lot of good work on the offensive end lately and will be licking its chops against a Nuggets defense that has seemed to get even worse recently.
The Kings handed the Nuggets a lopsided loss just five days ago, and despite Denver getting home-court advantage this time around, I think that result had everything to do with where these teams are at and not necessarily the venue.
Sacramento has looked much better in recent games, and even on the second night of a back-to-back, it should challenge for a much-needed win over a team it's chasing in the standings.
The Kings may be just 3-4 straight up on the second night of a back-to-back this season, but the Nuggets are just 4-7-1 against the spread with a rest advantage. I'll be taking the points.
