Welcome to a new week in the NBA! A new week brings a bunch of games on this NBA Monday with a slate of 11 on tap featuring a couple of NBA TV matchups between Bucks vs. Celtics at 7:30 p.m. ET with Lakers vs. Suns at 10 p.m. ET to follow.
A few League Pass games such as Pistons vs. Heat and Cavaliers vs. Knicks were clear standouts for our experts amid the matchups ahead as they provide 7 player props, 3 spread picks, 2 bets on the total, and a moneyline pick for Monday's loaded 13 best bets.
Continue below for our NBA best bets and NBA picks for Monday, October 28.
Best NBA Bets Today
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Spread Pick for Pacers vs. Magic
Both teams are playing their third game in four nights and sixth game in four, but the Magic have a clear edge here based on my projections based on their dominance at home. Jamahl Mosley has this team locked in defensively, but their offense has been surprisingly good this season as well, despite a poor showing in Memphis on Saturday. They lost the game 124-111, but Orlando has bounced back under Mosley. Last season the Magic were 21-14 ATS after a loss.
Meanwhile, Indiana's high pace makes them particularly susceptible to the bad rest spot. Under Rick Carlisle, the Pacers are just 41-30-3 ATS when playing their fourth game in six nights and fading them would get you a 10 percent ROI dating back to 2021-22.
I see some runway here and you can bet the Magic to -8.
Pick: Magic -5.5
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Duren Player Prop for Pistons vs. Heat
By Joe Dellera
Jalen Duren and the Pistons face off against Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat on Monday night. This is a matchup Duren has fared well in over the last few seasons.
Duren has averaged 15.4 points and 13.0 rebounds since he took over the starting 5 role for the Pistons. He’s exceeded this 22.5 line in 4/5 with the miss still resulting in a double-double.
Duren’s minutes have been stable this season as well, playing roughly 30 minutes in each game. When he has played at least 25 minutes he has hit this in 42/51 games over the last two seasons while averaging 27.8 PR.
Duren is a ball hawk on the glass which aligns well against Bam’s style of play which often results in him playing a roaming style of defense away from the basket. This works well for Duren to crash the glass on both sides of the floor.
I’m backing Dyuren to have a strong performance on Monday night and I will also sprinkle 30+ PR (+500 DK).
Pick: Jalen Duren Over 22.5 PR (-109)
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Moneyline Pick for Nuggets vs. Raptors
By Eric Gaston
The first two games of the regular season has not been in the Denver Nuggets' favor. In their home opener against the Oklahoma City Thunder, they lost by 15 points. Nobody on the team scored more than 16 points, and the team only shot 35 percent from the field, which resulted in them scoring only 87 points for the game.
In their second game at home, they faced the Los Angeles Clippers, who are without Kawhi Leonard. But that didn't matter, as James Harden, Norman Powell, and Ivica Zubac combined for 84 points, defeating the Nuggets by a score of 109-104, despite Nikola Jokic scoring 41 points.
This game against the Toronto Raptors is the perfect opportunity for the Nuggets to get on the right track, and claim their first victory on the season. The Raptors are 1-2, and are short-handed due to injuries.
On the road, the Nuggets will be the heavy favorites. Not only because they are better, but their should be more motivation to get the win after not having the best start. This game should be a W for Denver.
Pick: Nuggets ML (-355)
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Spread Pick for Cavaliers vs. Knicks
This line is a complete overreaction to the early few games.
The Cavaliers are on 3 games in 4 days, and have beat the Wizards, Pistons, and Raptors. Now they are getting a higher power rating than NY because home court advantage, especially MSG, is worth the full 2.5 points here.
Give me preseason priors to show more than a small sample size of 3 weak games.
Pick: Knicks -2.5
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Harris Player Prop Bet for Pistons vs. Heat
Through three games, Miami's defense has given up the most corner attempts and fifth most wide open 3-point attempts per game. These issues plagued them last year as well.
Cade Cunningham is thriving now that the spacing around him is at least competent. He should consistently penetrate the paint against Miami's undersized backcourt and rack up kick-outs to shooters.
Tobias Harris will benefit tremendously. The veteran is in a slump right now, but I expect his volume to help protect him from continued inefficient shooting.
Pick: Tobias Harris 2+ Made Threes (+140)
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Spread Pick for Bucks vs. Celtics
The Bucks have given the Celtics trouble lately, covering in all four matchups last season. But this is a bad matchup for Milwaukee even this early in the season. Monday's game will be not just the third in four nights for the Bucks but the fourth in six as well.
They're also coming off a loss to the Nets last night–two reasons to be looking to fade Milwaukee here. Teams after playing Brooklyn are just 37-47 against the spread and fading them would net a 7.5 percent ROI. Even this season, teams are 0-3 ATS post-Nets. Additionally, the Bucks are just 12-20 ATS off a loss since last season, netting a 20 percent ROI when fading them after losing.
On the Celtics side, they've looked incredible all season and I see no reason not to back them here in a bad rest spot for Milwaukee. Bet this to -11.5.
Pick: Celtics -9.5
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Mobley Player Prop Bet for Cavaliers vs. Knicks
By Joe Dellera
Mobley has been incredible to start the season and is seemingly unlocked by new coach Kenny Atkinson. He has seen his usage increase from 19.4% to 23.5% this season and is averaging 18 points and 9 rebounds.
While this matchup against the Knicks had not been favorable for him, this is not the same Knicks team on the interior. The Knicks are allowing their opponents to shoot 83% at the rim and 47.6% from short mid-range, per Cleaning the Glass. Those are Mobley's top two scoring zones.
Additionally, the Knicks are just 19th in rebound percentage, and given that the Knicks are a bit thin in their frontcourt, this is a spot Mobley can thrive.
I hate betting against the Knicks, but this spot is too good to pass up.`
Pick: Evan Mobley Over 23.5 PR
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Adebayo Player Prop Pick for Pistons vs. Heat
By Eric Gaston
Adebayo will be a solid look for rebounds on Monday night. He grabbed 11 rebounds in the Heat's last game against the Hornets.
He will be matched up against Jalen Duren, who's also a great rebounder. It'll be a physical night between the two centers.
Last season, Adebayo averaged 10.3 rebounds against the Pistons.
Pick: Bam Adebayo 10+ Rebounds (-150)
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Hart Player Prop for Cavaliers vs. Knicks
By Eric Gaston
When it comes to crashing the glass, Josh Hart is one of the best, especially for his position.
In the home opener against the Indiana Pacers, Hart grabbed 10 rebounds, to go along with his 20 points. Going up against the frontcourt of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, Hart will be an important factor by helping Karl-Anthony Towns get boards, as he'll be all season.
Hart has had success rebounding against the Cavaliers, averaging 11.3 rebounds in three games against them last season, and grabbed 19 rebounds in their final regular season matchup.
Pick: Josh Hart 8+ Rebounds (-185)
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Total Bet for Bulls vs. Grizzlies
By Chris Baker
These are the top-2 rated teams in pace and it is just an awful matchup for the Bulls defense. The Grizzlies exert a ton of rim-pressure on multiple fronts between Ja Morant and Zach Edey.
The Bulls do not have any rim-protectors on their roster and they are just a smaller team in general.
I expect the Grizzlies to completely dominate the Bulls in the paint and to be at the free throw line often. The Bulls are 2-1 to the over with their first two games soaring over by more than 10 points. Their most recent game landed at just 209 but they played what may be the best defense in the league in OKC.
Both teams shot awfully from the field in that game so I wouldn’t read too deep into that low-total. Through 3 games this Bulls team is playing at a 110.7 possession pace according to dunksandthrees.com.
The next closest team (MEM) is playing a full 5 possessions slower (105.7) to give you a sense of just how fast the Bulls are playing.
The Bulls also rank 4th in three point attempt rate (45.1%) according to Cleaning the Glass. This may not be an elite offense but I believe they are at least league-average and we may only need 105-110 points from them to clear this total.
I envision this being an up and down game and think this total should be more around 236 than 233.
Pick: Over 233
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Castle Player Prop Pick for Spurs vs. Rockets
Stephon Castle has been getting an extended look in the absence of Devin Vassell, and not only does he warrant it, but the young Spurs are invested in his development.
The 2024 first round pick has logged 55 minutes across two games this season, scoring exactly eight in each despite only shooting 5 of 15 from the field. He just did it against this same team Saturday.
And it's not just volume, he's getting to the line. Through two games, he is 6 for a on free throws and has a 60 percent free throws rate. He's an attacking combo guard who will have the ball in his hands a healthy amount when out there. His 22.8 percent usage rate is third on the team among players who have logged over 20 minutes these two games, and trend that could remain at least until Vassell is back.
Pick: Stephon Castle Over 6.5 Points
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Total Bet for Jazz vs. Mavericks
Mavericks unders are going to be on repeat for me until the market catches up. The change they made late last season to having 48 minutes of rim protection defense has made them a clear under team.
Jason Kidd emphasizes defense far more than offense in his sideline coaching on a nightly basis. The Mavericks have a lot of 3’s, but the pace does not scare me.
The Jazz offense is so young it does not scare me off the strong Mavericks angle here.
Pick: Under 234
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Davis Player Prop Pick for Lakers vs. Suns
JJ Redick has completely optimized Anthony Davis by running the offense through him and creating open rim attempts via actions. Davis likely won't average 34 points per game for long because 15 free throw attempts per game is unsustainable, but I still expect him to settle around 28 points per game eventually.
Davis already dropped 35 against Phoenix this season, and he should once again dominate the Suns. Jusuf Nurkic isn't athletic enough to deter lob threats, so AD will feast in the pick-and-roll. Nurkic's foul-prone nature also may lead to a ton of free throws for Davis.
Pick: Anthony Davis Over 26.5 Points (-113)
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