NBA Cup group play resumes with another deep 12-game slate of matchups this Friday.
So, our staff of NBA betting experts came through with 6 picks and predictions for today's docket, including selections for Nets vs. Knicks, Nuggets vs. Pelicans, Timberwolves vs. Kings, and more!
Let's get into our NBA best bets for Friday, November 15.
NBA Best Bets, Picks for Friday, November 15
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
76ers vs. Magic
I bet this at FanDuel on Thursday night as the Mavs were blowing it against the Jazz. This number (OU 37.5)) is simply too high given what we just saw from Joel Embiid against the Knicks just this past Tuesday.
Embiid got up to 21 PRA in 26 minutes, shot 2-for-11, pulled in three rebounds and hardly looked conditioned enough to do more than he did. Now, the Sixers face the league's second-best defense in Orlando — and yes, they're without Wendell Carter Jr. and Paolo Banchero — but I have a hard time seeing Embiid go from 21 PRA to 38 or more after looking the way he did earlier this week.
I think he's still in ramp-up mode, and appears to be in poor shape in terms of conditioning. I'm open to being wrong and maybe the two days rest will set this up to be a smash over, because after all, he is a transcendent NBA talent. But this is a huge ask against a pressure-driven and principled defense in Orlando in his second game back.
Pick: Joel Embiid Under 37.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-135)
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Wizards vs. Hawks
By Joe Dellera
Trae Young has absolutely been printing money on this prop this season going over in 9/11 games while averaging 15.7 RA per game. His two misses came against the Boston Celtics and the Oklahoma City Thunder, two teams who are in a completely different weight class than the Wizards.
The key difference has been the floor for both his rebounds and the assists has been fairly high this season with spikes in each department.
In his latest two outings against Washington, Young totaled 8 rebounds and 13 assists and 4 rebounds and 15 assists. The Wizards have the second-worst Adjusted Defensive Rating, while playing at the fourth-fastest Pace in the league, per Dunks and Threes.
This is a great spot for Trae and I'll grab him to exceed 14.5 rebounds + assists, but would pivot to over 11.5 assists if this number climbs to 15.5.
Pick: Trae Young Over 14.5 Rebounds & Assists (-135)
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Nets vs. Knicks
Here's how the Nets are (most likely) going to attack the Knicks: High pick and roll with Dennis Schroder or Cam Thomas.
"Hey, Karl-Anthony Towns, you come here. Wait? OG Anunoby or Mikal Bridges are over-helping? Hey, Cam Johnson, you open? Cool. When I pass it to you in the corner, shoot this three, got it? Cool."
Teams have been putting KAT in these actions all seasons. We saw the Bulls do it again, often with Zach LaVine. Knick wings have felt compelled to over-help in these situations, leaving corner threes wide open.
Johnson is attempting about eight threes per game and hitting 37.6% from deep, including three or more makes in five straight games before an under against the Celtics last time out.
Brooklyn shoots the fifth-most threes per 100 possessions and the Knicks allow the fourth-most attempts. Brooklyn will likely have a heavy three-point shot diet in this one, and Johnson — team leader in three-point attempts — will be a big part of that.
Pick: Cam Johnson Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-105)
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Nets vs. Knicks
By Joe Dellera
We have Nets vs. Knicks tonight at Madison Square Garden for the NBA Cup, and similarly to my colleague, I'll be targeting Cam Johnson.
One of the Knicks' deficiencies is they struggle to defend the high pick-and-roll when Brunson and KAT are put into action and they're allowing three-pointers at one of the highest frequencies in the league.
Cam Johnson continue to thrive from beyond the arc, and should see plenty of opportunities playing alongside Schroder, Ben Simmons, and Cam Thomas. He has exceeded this line in 9/12 games this season, while averaging 16.5 points per game.
I'll grab over 13.5 points at -125.
Pick: Cam Johnson Over 13.5 Points (-125)
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Nuggets vs. Pelicans
By Joe Dellera
Trey Murphy has now played two games since returning from injury and is getting as much Usage as he can handle due to all of the Pelicans’ injuries. While his minutes may be capped to some extent, it is mitigated by the Usage bump.
Murphy played 25 minutes in both games, but got into some early foul trouble with three first-half fouls last game. Despite that, he took 14 and 12 shots respectively, but has gone just a combined 8/26 (31%) from the field including 4/14 from 3.
Considering he is a 45%/39%/87% shooter over his career I expect those numbers to regulate.
Now, he gets a matchup against the Denver Nuggets, who will be without one of their best defensive options in Aaron Gordon.
Denver also allows the seventh-highest frequency of above-the-break three-pointers, which is a shot that Murphy has made a living from over his career. With all of the volume and the minutes only increasing, I like Murphy to exceed 14.5 points tonight.
Pick: Trey Murphy Over 14.5 Points (-120)
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Timberwolves vs. Kings
By Joe Dellera
This number is too low after two poor performances against Donovan Clingan and the Portland Trail Blazers, but this is a spot he has thrived. Rudy Gobert lines up opposite Domantas Sabonis tonight and should get plenty of run to get back on track.
Although he scored just 3 points in this spot in the Wolves’ second game of the season, both Julius Randle and Naz Reid were scorching hot scoring the basketball.
Before that game, Gobert had his this 22.5 PR line in seven straight games against Sabonis since he’s been on the Kings and averaged 30.3 points + rebounds. This is a get-right spot in an NBA Cup Game for Gobert.
Pick: Rudy Gobert Over 22.5 Points & Rebounds (-105)
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