The NBA Playoffs continue on Thursday with three Game 3 matchups as the Magic, 76ers and Lakers will all look to win on their home courts and avoid 0-3 deficits.
Our staff is ready with 11 NBA best bets for Thursday's Playoff slate, including four picks for Nuggets vs. Lakers. Find our favorite spread picks, moneyline bets, totals and player prop picks below.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cavaliers vs. Magic
By Jim Turvey
The Cavs and Magic face off for Game 3 on Thursday, and boy oh boy has this series been ugly. To be honest, most people may not even know this series is going on given that it has shared a day with the far bigger and flashier series ongoing in New York and Denver.
However, it has indeed been ongoing, and it's been a slog. Game 1 was a 97-83 rock fight, but apparently there were still some rocks left over two nights later, as Game 2's 96-86 final wasn't much prettier.
Part of these low totals has been 3-point shooting that is due for a bit of regression, but these two defenses are well built for low-scoring games. Orlando's defense improved at home this season, allowing opponents just a 107.7 Offensive Rating. On the flip side, Cleveland's Offensive Rating drops from 117.4 to 112.0 on the road.
Game 2 was only even slower than Game 1 by Pace, and to top it all off, these playoffs as a whole have been a gold mine for unders. Of the 20 games since the Play-In Tournament began, unders are 15-5, with a few of those losses coming via a hook off the final number after beating the opening under number.
I would play this to under 196.5.
Pick: Under 201
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Cavaliers vs. Magic
By Jim Turvey
In two games this series, Jarrett Allen has absolutely EATEN the glass. He grabbed 18 boards in Game 1 and somehow topped that number, with 20(!) rebounds, in Game 2.
Now, we don't want to extrapolate off a two-game sample, but there's more scaffolding to this bet than just the success he had in Game 1 and Game 2 (though I do weigh small samples within a postseason series more than a few random regular-season games).
For one, we can see how ugly this series is. Neither team has been able to buy a bucket, with Orlando particularly ice cold from the field. While I expect their shooting numbers to regress at least a bit to the mean, neither team is an offensive juggernaut.
If we look to the regular season matchups between these two teams, Allen averaged just under 10 rebounds a game, but this number is incredibly skewed by two games when he played under 20 minutes.
Allen is getting big minutes this series, with 35 in Game 1 and 38 in Game 2. On a per-minute basis, Allen averaged around 14.5 rebounds per 36, which is right around where I project his minutes for Game 3.
I would play this to over 13.5 at -115.
Pick: Jarrett Allen Over 12.5 Rebounds
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Cavaliers vs. Magic
I'm going to keep playing the under for every game this series until I lose two in a row.
However, if the Cavaliers and Magic keep playing the way they have been, I won't.
They can't place this under low enough. The Magic haven't broken 86 points this series, and the Cavs haven't broken 97. The Cavs are shooting 42/29/70 and the Magic are shooting an even more abysmal 34/24/68.
It feels like any oncoming over will be an outlier, hence why I said I need to see two overs in a row to deter me from playing the under.
And even then, I might come back on the under.
This series has been a classic muddy, sloppy, dirty, ugly, vintage Eastern Conference Playoff basketball — and I love it.
Under under under.
Pick: Under 201
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Cavaliers vs. Magic
Orlando opened as a 2.5-point underdog but has moved to as high as a 2.5-point favorite as of Thursday morning.
The Magic are young and playing like it, but we don't think the Cavs are going to sweep them, do we?
I felt like the series was appropriately priced early on with the Cavs listed as favorites, but I felt like this would go at least five or six games, possibly seven. In order for that to happen, Orlando pretty much has to win tonight.
The Magic were the best home team against the spread this season, 27-13 ATS, and 19-6 as a home favorite — No. 1 with a bullet.
They're also only shooting 34/24/68 for the series, and I expect some progression to the mean, even if the mean doesn't project to be all that great this series.
Pick: Magic -1.5
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Cavaliers vs. Magic
The atmosphere is always much more intense during the playoffs than in the regular season, considering that winning and losing could come down to any possession.
Players tend to be more committed defensively as their effort levels also increase. Therefore, it’s no surprise these playoff games tend to be lower scoring.
It’s not just the defensive prowess that's on display in the playoffs. The Pace (possessions per 48 minutes) of the game also takes a significant hit, slowing down to a more strategic tempo.
In the case of the Cavaliers (97.62) and Magic (97.37), we have two teams that ranked 24th and 27th in Pace during the regular season, according to the NBA’s Advanced Stats.
Through their first two playoff games, the average Pace was even slower at 95.5, with the Magic failing to crack the 90-point mark in either contest.
I know Orlando hasn’t even shot 40% from the floor in this series, but it’s debatable whether we’ll see much improvement as the series shifts to the Kia Center.
The Cavaliers are still a top-10 team defensively and were as high as second for much of the regular season.
With possibly even fewer possessions with the Magic at home and a Cavaliers defense that should travel on the road, targeting Orlando’s team total under 101.5 points offers tremendous value.
Pick: Magic Team Total Under 101.5 -110
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Knicks vs. 76ers
The 76ers have outscored the Knicks 34-25 and 25-18 in first quarters this series. They were also among the top five in the NBA as a home favorite against the spread and have gotten off to great starts even at Madison Square Garden.
We're expecting even more urgency here as they trail 2-0 against the Knicks, and I'll ride the hot hand in relation to their first-quarter line, which is only around -2 as of this writing.
I'll play the Sixers to cover in the first quarter, which has hit both games so far this series, up to -2.5. I like this more than betting the full game because I don't trust the Sixers to close well — though they should (and better) win.
Pick: 76ers 1Q -1.5
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Knicks vs. 76ers
By Joe Dellera
The Knicks head down to Philadelphia for Game 3 against the 76ers in a game the 76ers desperately need to secure.
While Jalen Brunson has struggled this series as a scoring threat, he has been excellent as facilitator and as a rebounder. Brunson has seven and six assists on 12 potentials in each game of this series, and he’s actually recorded 7.8 assists per game against Philadelphia over the last few seasons as well – all games in which he has struggled to score.
One of the things Philadelphia is doing is they won’t concede penetration by sending multiple wings at the pick and roll instead of Embiid, who is in a drop. Even if a big is setting the screen, another wing comes to defend it, and the defensive big is picking up the wing’s assignment on the back end.
With De’Anthony Melton possibly returning tonight, it should make this strategy a bit easier for Philly to employ as well. Overall, Philly is deciding not to allow Brunson to beat them off the bounce, and this should continue to offer strong assist opportunities in the halfcourt.
In Game 1, Brunson grabbed five offensive rebounds, which is a bit unrealistic to expect moving forward; however, in Game 2 he secured eight rebounds off of the defensive glass. These defensive rebounds help the Knicks push in transition, which is where they have a clear edge.
The Knicks are scoring just 86.3 points per play in the halfcourt compared to 164.3 points per play in transition. This will be the Knicks’ best chance to put up points, and with Brunson grabbing additional boards to push the pace, he can rack up some easy assists.
I expect Brunson to exceed 11.5 Rebounds plus Assists tonight, a number he has exceeded in both games this series and in eight of his last 10 against the 76ers.
Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists +100
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Nuggets vs. Lakers
By Maltman
The Nuggets travel to Los Angeles to face the Lakers for Game 3 after winning Game 2 on an insane buzzer beater by Jamal Murray.
Last game, we bet the Nuggets to trail by 10+ points and win the game. The Lakers pulled out their best stops early, but the Nuggets adjusted after halftime and won on a last-second shot.
Last year, the Nuggets fell behind in Game 2, trailing by 10+ points multiple times, before pulling away on Murray baskets late. The Lakers were 5.5-point favorites in Game 3, then the Nuggets kept it close and ran away in the fourth quarter. Sound familiar?
Betting the Nuggets to win games near even money feels obvious, regardless of the location. The general weaknesses at the start of the series are the same now. I'm betting .25 units on Nuggets to win.
It also only makes sense to keep making the bet that's happened in five of the last 10 games between these two teams: Nuggets to trail by 10 and win. I'm putting .25 units on this at FanDuel at +500 and would bet it down to +350.
Pick: Nuggets ML -105
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Nuggets vs. Lakers
The Lakers and Nuggets have played 10 times since the beginning of 2023, and they've gone over the total only three times — and one of those overs was this March, when results were a lot more untrustworthy.
The bottom line is these teams know each other well, and when teams know the other's moves on offense, they become more predictable and less effective. Combine that with a slow Pace (93.5), and we're getting some low-scoring affairs.
It took 81 points from LeBron James, Anthony Davis and D'Angelo Russell combined to reach 99 points in Game 2.
Granted, Jamal Murray had a terrible game, and I expect that to improve, but Michael Porter Jr. had 22 points on just 13 shots, and Nikola Jokic had 27– something he's more than capable of, but it's not on the low side of his scoring capabilities either.
If the Lakers close as favorites, this triggers a simple under trend going back to 2021-22. In the playoffs when the home team is the underdog, the under is 30-20 (60%), including 3-0 so far this season.
This number is already on the move from where it opened at 216, and I like it down to 214, but reduce risk past that.
Pick: Under 217
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Nuggets vs. Lakers
The Lakers are desperate to win a game against the Nuggets. We saw them unleash all that they had in Game 2 and still come up short in Denver, partially because of the Nuggets’ superior conditioning.
Anthony Davis looked excellent through two quarters, dropping 26 points and leading the Lakers to a 59-44 lead at halftime. However, it wasn't enough to bring the win home thanks to Jamal Murray's epic fourth quarter and buzzer-beating game-winner.
The Lakers haven't won a playoff game against Denver in the last two seasons, but they're 4-2 in the first half. They're also 12-4 in the first half off a playoff loss since the 2020 Bubble, including 7-1 going back to last season.
I like the Lakers to come out strong as they have all postseason, and that way I don't have to worry about another Lakers collapse down the stretch.
Pick: Lakers 1H -1.5
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Nuggets vs. Lakers
Anthony Davis Under 0.5 Made 3-pointers -115 (DraftKings)
I’m gonna keep riding this until it loses since since I’ve hit this bet in four straight games — twice against the Pelicans and in Games 1 & 2 against the Nuggets.
Anthony Davis has struggled with his shot. He took four 3-point attempts in Game 1 and only one attempt in Game 2 and has missed all of them.
Since the All-Star Break, he’s only hit a 3-pointer in eight of his last 27 games (29.6%).
Based on that output and implied probability, the under should be closer to -200. He also only hit this in one of five games against Denver this year (including the playoffs) and three of the last 11 matchups overall.
During the regular season, Nuggets were second in the NBA in terms of allowing the fewest opponent 3-point makes and attempts. This has carried over into the postseason so far against the Lakers.
And look, let’s be honest. I don’t wish injury on anyone, but Davis is not exactly a picture of perfect health. There are too many variables stacking against Brow to feel confident about a 3-point make from him.
Pick: Anthony Davis Under 0.5 Made 3-pointers -115
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