The Boston Celtics are on the brink. Tuesday's Game 4 matchup between the Celtics and Miami Heat could be the end for the reigning Eastern Conference champions and put an exclamation point on a wild postseason ride for the Heat.
Action Network's analysts have six best bets today, including several player props for Game 4, a series prop, bets on the total and more. Read on for their expert picks for Celtics vs. Heat below.
NBA Odds & Best Bets
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Bryan Fonseca: I did this with Austin Reaves the other day. He had a 24.5-combo prop after already already going over for five consecutive games, and he did it a sixth time.
We're taking the bait with Caleb Martin, a.k.a., the second-best wing in this series. (Unbelievable, right?)
Martin has gone over 18.5 points, rebounds and assists in all three games against the Boston Celtics. The Celtics have gone smaller, not playing Robert Williams a ton, which has given more opportunities for Martin to find driving lanes. Because Martin is a 41.5% 3-point shooter in the playoffs — up to 47.6% on seven attempts per game this series — the Celtics are beginning to respect his long-range abilities, which also helps find those gaps when penetrating inside.
Of course, Martin could just keep shooting 3s — it's not like the Celtics are connected defensively anyway. He's at 19.3 points per game this series on 63% shooting, and is also pulling down 3.7 rebounds per contest with 2.3 assists.
The beauty of how the Heat are currently playing makes it difficult to project which role players will go off (prop wise) on a night-to-night, but Martin has been steady and reliable.
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Brandon Anderson: In Game 3, we bet on an aggressive Marcus Smart with the Celtics playing behind. Smart still didn't take many shots, scoring only nine points, but his nine rebounds and eight assists helped us hit his PRA over and alternate over.
The Celtics are obviously still trailing in the series, so let's stick with what's working — mostly.
You've probably noticed Boston doesn't always know where to turn when things get sticky. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown take turns getting shots up, and Al Horford has been invisible this series. Marcus Smart's energy is the one constant. He always plays hard at all times and brings his confidence to the biggest games, for better and for worse.
We noted in our Game 3 card that Smart's numbers all go up when Boston is trailing. His scoring is down in that spot this series and has mostly evened out that advantage, but check out the rebounding and assists:
5.9 RPG when trailing in a series, 4.1 RPG in all other games
7.0 RPG when trailing in a series, 5.5 APG in all other games
Smart is aggressive, pushes in transition, and attacks the paint. His RA is up from 9.6 to 12.9 when Boston trails, and he's the one guy I trust to play hard all the way no matter what for Boston. I'll nibble the 12.5 RA escalator at +280 too (FanDuel).
Pick: Marcus Smart over 9.5 Reb + AST |
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Brandon Anderson:I wrote at length about Boston's title chances going forward. The Celtics can absolutely still win this series.
Oftentimes in sports, it's darkest just before the dawn. Things could hardly look bleaker for Boston right now, but zoom out and the big picture doesn't look as bad.
NBA teams down 0-3 in a series are 0-149 all time, but precious few of those teams have the winning pedigree Boston has, the No. 1 Net Rating from the season, home court in a potential Game 7, or the many on-paper advantages the Celtics have over the Heat.
But if Boston is to win, even once, the Celtics will almost certainly need to see a major swing in shot variance. That shot variance has swung wildly in Miami's direction so far, but the ball bounces funny sometimes. You're forgiven if you don't think the Celtics believe much right now, but belief can come in a hurry when 50% of your 3s start raining. We already saw that in Game 6 in Philadelphia, and we've seen these Celtics go on torrid stretches.
I wrote at length about Boston's title chances going forward. The Celtics are not dead yet. Their profile and shot variance says they have a real shot. I don't like them at +800 to win the East, but I'll sprinkle Jayson Tatum for ECF MVP at +1200 as a proxy.
If you've been tailing, you've got a lot of juicy Miami futures — Heat -1.5 series +680, Denver over Miami +1600 to name a few — so if nothing else, this acts as a fun little hedge. This is just a quarter unit play on a long shot, but let's have some fun.
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Andrew O'Connor-Watts: What I like about this play is there are a few different ways we can get there. Several game scripts could lead us to an over with either team winning in those scenarios.
When games become a blowout, the first thing to go is defense. That could apply for either side in this game and we even saw it as recently as Game 3. The total was exactly half of the full game number at halftime and started trending under in the third quarter, thanks to just 17 points from the Celtics. Once they were well out of range, the backups came in and we got a 74-point quarter. The total went well over despite just 102 points from the Celtics.
Another outcome where this hits is if the Celtics just hit all their threes, which isn’t a crazy possibility. I never like to get into “they’re due” territory, but I wouldn’t be shocked if shots started falling for Boston in a way they haven’t all series.
The over has been hitting all playoffs for these teams and there are trends galore that point to high scores. The over is 22-7 in the Heat’s last 29 games and 11-3 in the Celtics' last 14. The over is 13-3 in Boston’s last 16 games on one day of rest and 19-7 in Miami’s last 26. The trends continue, but most importantly for me is that my model continues to have this significantly higher than the current total. I like the over up to 217.5.
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Matt Moore: I wrote more about my Game 4 thoughts here. The Heat have been the most profitable moneyline team in the playoffs and one of the most profitable ATS teams over the last 10 years under Erik Spoelstra, but there also is historical precedent for betting them to close out tonight.
Since 2003, when a team has lost twice in a series and loses Game 3 by 20 or more, those teams are just 20-32 (38.5%) straight up, 21-31 (40.4%) ATS in the following game. They are 2-12 straight up on the road in that following game.
Dogs in an elimination game, after losing by 20, are 10-24 SU (29.4%) and 15-19 (44%) ATS.
And teams to lose by 20 facing elimination in a potential sweep on the road are 3-6 straight up and ATS.
The Celtics have responded when down 3-2 before, twice in these last two playoffs. But 3-2 is "We had a chance and let it go." 3-0 is "We're lost."
I'm willing to bet against it and take the best bet in the playoffs so far, Heat to win.
Pick: Heat -1.5 |
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Joe Dellera: I wrote more about this matchup in the Celtics vs Heat Game 4 betting guide (you can read that here).
This game comes down to whether you think Boston's shots fall and Miami's stop falling. That can be difficult to predict.
Boston has not demonstrated anything to deserve respect, but just looking at the underlying metrics, it's tough to say Miami can keep this up.
The Celtics have a +6.7 Net Rating in the first half during the playoffs and there's generally been more pace in the first half than the second in the Conference Finals. I expect Boston to start strong as it makes a push in a win-or-go-home spot.
