The NBA has an awesome Monday slate with 15 games before taking the day off for Election Day. (Go vote!)
With this many games, we're able to take a look at good moneyline parlay opportunities and I've got three games that I think show value. We've got two 'dogs and a favorite, so let's hit this three-leg moneyline parlay.
OK, I'm out on a limb here. I make this line, where the Cavs are -7.5, -7.4, with a 71% chance to win vs. 74.7% implied.
But man, I love this spot for the Bucks.
Let's start with a trend. This is what I've come to call a Duplex Spot, coined by my friend Ken Barkley, where you play a team twice in a matter of days. In this case, the Bucks and Cavs went to the wire in Milwaukee on Saturday, only for the Cavaliers to pull out the win after a Donovan Mitchell twisting fadeaway.
Teams playing the same team twice in three days who won the first game on the road as a 'dog and are favored at home are 9-13 straight up (and ATS) since 2021.
So the spot is, by the numbers, not good for Cleveland.
We're not at peak Cleveland here, but we're getting there, and we're probably reaching the bottom of Bucks sentiment in the market. The Bucks are still +2.3 at Inpredictable's market power rating and +1.7 based on their current win total.
There's the danger of "trying to catch a falling knife" here. Milwaukee may just be this bad to lose twice to a division opponent within three days. I don't want any part of the spread. But after a slow start on the season, 'dogs who cover are now 33-19 straight up.
I'll take a shot on Milwaukee to pull off the upset.
I think the market is behind on both these teams. The Clippers had a good start to the year
The Clippers caught the Nuggets when they couldn't shoot to start the season, and pulled off an upset of the Warriors. Since then, they've lost three in a row, all at home, against a wide array of good teams (Suns) and bad teams (Blazers).
Meanwhile, San Antonio has had the third-toughest strength of schedule to start. These are both teams with an inconsistent win profile, but preseason priors are heavily still endorsing the idea that the Clippers are significantly better than the Spurs (without Kawhi Leonard). However, I actually have the Spurs as 2.6 points better on a neutral court.
Ivica Zubac should have a monster game, but I think there's value on the Spurs.
Paul George returns tonight as Joel Embiid remains out with injury. The first game for a player coming into a new team and a new system, on the road, is rough. George makes the Sixers better, but that's baked into the line.
Philadelphia also genuinely hasn't looked good, independent of the missing talent. It's easy to say "well, sure, they're missing (superstar) and (superstar)" but the good teams are good even when they're shorthanded because their underlying infrastructure and roster are good enough to at least compete — both with their opponent and the market expectations.
Philly, meanwhile, is 1-4 with the win coming against a completely uneven Pacers squad. The Suns might be without Bradley Beal, but Beal isn't a significant power-rating mover for me. I make this line Suns by double digits, so I'll throw them in as a favorite with our two 'dogs.
Parlay: +963 at BetMGM
