Week 2 of the NBA season tips off with fun matchups like the young gun Rockets taking on Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs tonight, plus a few other marquee showdowns.
Continue below for my NBA picks and predictions for Monday, October 28 and the latest NBA odds for today's slate of games.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Monday, October 28
Rockets vs Spurs Odds, Preview
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -102 | 220.5 -110o / -110u | -142 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -118 | 220.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
Houston and San Antonio both have big differences between their expected eFG% and actual. Houston has an expected eFG% at 54% which is 12th-best vs. an actual eFG% of 48.6%, 28th in the league. The Spurs are at 54.7% (6th) vs. 52.6% actual (15th). So there's some shooting regression likely at some point.
For all the talk about Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs are 17 points worse on defense with him on the floor, giving up a 118 defensive rating (awful). I'm willing to bet the non-Wembanyama minutes regress to a worse mean before the Wemby minutes do.
Pace is slower for both these teams, but both have great athletes and are on the younger side. Houston has the 5th-highest 3-point rate so far, and the Spurs' strength of schedule has been bad for transition opportunities but Houston should be easier to run on. I'll play the low number over here off a projected 228.
Pick: Over 220.5 (-110)
Jazz vs Mavericks Odds, Preview
| Jazz Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -108 | 233 -112o / -108u | +425 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -112 | 233 -112o / -108u | -575 |
This is more specifically a play on Dallas' offense vs. the Jazz defense. Dallas looks like a monster so far this season against a tough defensive schedule and Utah has a good chance at being the worst defense in the league.
However, if the Jazz are competitive, it will be on the back of their offense in a letdown spot for Dallas' defense. So I'll play the combined total with a strong edge towards Dallas' team total over which I will likely play for a smaller percentage of a unit.
Pick: Over 234 (-110)
Trail Blazers vs Kings Odds, Preview
| Trail Blazers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 228 -110o / -110u | +600 |
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 228 -110o / -110u | -900 |
Winless teams who are a double-digit favorite in their third game or later since 2013 are 1-3 ATS. Tiny sample, right? It just illustrates how rare it is to see a team be a double-digit favorite at this point in the season while winless.
The Trail Blazers are bad, but they're not playing like it right now and the Kings have looked lost going back to preseason. So I'll play the +12.5, but not the moneyline. Usually, covering dogs win outright, but double-digit dogs in the first five games who cover are only 17-70 since 2003.
Pick: Trail Blazers +12.5 (-110)
