The Eastern Conference takes center stage tonight with a trio of Game 5s.
I'll be looking to back a trio of big men — Joel Embiid, Jarrett Allen and Myles Turner — so, let's dive into my NBA player prop picks and look at tonight's top plays.
In the regular season, the 76ers got 60.6 points per game from their star duo of Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, though they have upped that average to 64 points per game in this series. Typically, Philadelphia's gameplan gets Embiid involved early while Maxey carries the load in the second quarter. In the regular season, Embiid averaged 11.4 points in the first quarter and hit this line in 75% of his games.
Head coach Nick Nurse has staggered Embiid and Maxey less in this series, with both of them averaging 40+ minutes per game, but Embiid has still been dominant in the first quarter. He is averaging 10.8 points per game in the first quarter in this series and has hit this line in three of the first four games. Interestingly enough, the lone game in which he didn't hit this line is when he scored 50 points in Game 3.
While foul trouble is always a concern with first quarter props, this may be the best way to back Embiid's points. In Game 4, Embiid played the entire second half, but scored just two points in the fourth quarter. I could pivot to Under 32.5 points, but that's a very uncomfortable bet for a player who averages 35 points per game and recently had 50 in this matchup.
We're backing Embiid when he is fresh and highly motivated. The Sixers are down 3-1 in this series, so they'll be trying to stave off elimination. Additionally, Knicks fans took over the crowd in Game 4 and he wasn't happy. He may want to quiet down Knicks fans with a strong first quarter.
In a series where points have been at a premium, Jarrett Allen is hasn't had much trouble scoring. Allen has scored 15 points in all four games in this series, including 21 on Saturday afternoon. He has also been dominant on the glass. Allen had 18 rebounds in Game 1 and pulled down 20 in Game 2.
Allen only had 17 rebounds in the two games in Orlando, but still scored enough in Game 4 to surpass this projection. He has surpassed this projection in three of the first four games, averaging 30.8 points and rebounds per game. Tonight, we only need 29.
One trend from the regular season that has carried over to the postseason is that the Magic's offense has been much better at home. If Orlando struggles in Cleveland again, it'll create more rebounding opportunities for Allen. He may not have 20 rebounds again, but I am expecting him to get a double-double. He can surpass this projection with 16 points and 13 rebounds tonight.
Myles Turner has been close to a double-double in this series. If he gets there tonight, most of his scoring will likely come from behind the arc. Turner is averaging 24.3 points per game in this series and is averaging 4.3 triples per game in this series.
Turner is coming into this game hot as he has made 11 triples in the past two games, including seven on Sunday night. The series shifts back to Milwaukee tonight, but Turner made three triples in both Games 1 and 2. Given the volume he's been getting, I like that trend to continue tonight.
Turner has taken six 3-point attempts in all four games in this series and at least nine in three. Several have been wide open because of the looks Tyrese Haliburton creates. If Turner takes nine tonight, we'll need him to shoot just 33% to hit this line. However, he is shooting 50% from deep in this series. Currently, he is only available up to four 3s but you can play that at +330 on FanDuel.
