Tuesday's NBA slate features 4 games. Of the 8 teams playing, five of them are on the second leg of a back to back.
The back to back Mavericks head on the road to face the rested, waiting, and revenge seeking Minnesota Timberwolves for a NBA on TNT matchup tipping off at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Sacramento Kings visit the Jazz, both teams are on the second leg of a back to back with travel (Utah is the home team returning from Dallas last night). We also have the Nuggets crossing customs after a Toronto road trip and overtime game going to Brooklyn to take on the rested Nets.
The only matchup with rested teams is Pelicans vs. Warriors (10 p.m. ET on TNT), and we already know Curry and Wiggins are out. When I look to the prop market, I like to understand game situation and market moves, like early money is coming being taken on Sacramento and Minnesota.
Continue below for my NBA player props and my NBA picks for Tuesday, October 29.
NBA Player Props for Tuesday, October 29
- Zion Williamson Over 22.5 Points (-102, FanDuel)
- Malik Monk Over 14.5 Points (-105, BetMGM)
- DeMar DeRozan Under 1.5 Turnovers (+100, Bet365)
- PJ Washington Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-120, FanDuel)
- Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds (-104, FanDuel)
This feels like a perfect buy low spot on Zion. The Pelicans are already missing Murray and Murphy, two key rotation players, and lack a true center.
It was no surprise Zion has struggled to start the season — he was dealing with an illness, playing reduced minutes and going against a big rotation of Ayton and Clingan — 48 minutes of rim protectors.
Now he takes on the Warriors who like to play small ball sets, and I think we see Zion's workload and minutes increase. If we get 30+ minutes of Williamson, I like his over here a lot. The day of rest, the easy travel in the Pacific North West after two games in Portland – this is a +road spot for the Pelicans.
Pick: Zion Williamson Over 22.5 Points (-102) — FanDuel
Monk is the scoring punch off the bench the Kings desperately missed at the end of last season. Then he surprisingly re-signs with them and comes back to deliver early this season.
The pace stays high when he takes over the offense with the second unit. In this game we have seen the total rise 1.5 points since open and we know its the second night of a back to back.
That could mean increase minutes for Monk and decreased minutes for a veteran DeMar DeRozan. Playing DeRozan under points was also a look, but I prefer another angle.
Pick: Malik Monk Over 14.5 Points (-105) — BetMGM
As of this writing this, there are not many prices for this but they will come up, so check for like a +110 on the board before placing.
I think we see a minutes reduction here for DeRozan on the second night of the back to back. Instead of playing his under on points, or PRA, I look towards the turnovers.
Usage rate may decrease even if minutes dont drop drastically. He is also a veteran playing against a very youthful Jazz team, a situation I trust him to limit turnovers.
Pick: DeMar DeRozan Under 1.5 Turnovers (+100) — Bet365
Washington has made a name for himself banging down corner 3's in Minnesota last year during the playoffs. I expect him to be found right in the same spots.
The Mavericks have a slow paced offense, but always have outlets for 3-point shooters.
Klay Thompson has brought down the production of PJ early in the season, but I expect PJ to be the stronger look on the second night of a back to back for the Mavericks, going on the road, and in the revenge environment.
Pick: PJ Washington Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-120) —FanDuel
The Nuggets got lucky to force overtime and ultimately get the road win in Toronto on Monday night. They were down nearly double digits all game, and the clearest thing is this team stinks without Joker on the floor. The back-to-back spot may get us a reduced vig line here with a -104, and clear action is coming in on Brooklyn to fade the Nuggets.
However, I think its an overreaction. I think the Nuggets are still far superior and Jokic has proven his conditioning the last few seasons to handle back-to-backs very well (especially the first one of the season while getting off to a bad start).
The Nets will be playing a lot of Claxton, which keeps Jokic close to the basket for both offensive and defensive rebounding opportunities. I avoid this prop against teams with shooting bigs who will try and space him out.
Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds (-104) — FanDuel
