Thursday in the NBA features a four-game slate where we see 6 teams taking the court for the first time this season, as well as the Celtics and Timberwolves playing their second game.
We already know to attack Celtics 3-point overs, that will be the first place I look and wonder how much the market has changed in one game. I think "reverse stacking" as a daily fantasy sports term makes a lot of sense in attacking Washington Wizards 3-point props playing against Boston.
The Celtics volume and space forces their opponent to play a similar style, and the pricing may be more reasonable.
I also look to pair prop angles into the game market directions that are forming, like under in Sacramento and Dallas.
So without holding you any longer, let's explore a few NBA player props for Thursday, October 24.
These are the two most reasonably priced Celtics 3-point overs and I like them both for small plays. I expect this game not to be too close, as the Celtics are 13-point road favorites. This should lead to an uptick in minutes for Pritchard and the bench unit. We also know Hauser is questionable, so I expect Pritchard to take a small minutes boost. The Celtics also notably look for him at the end of quarters, its a real thing to feed Pritchard for the half court heave.
Jaylen Brown's prop at +money for 3-pointer makes falls in line with what I'd look for from any Celtics player. White and Tatum are +money for 4 makes. Brown got a lot of open looks off of rotations and offensive rebounds against the Knicks, who were supposed to have great wing defense. Sometimes you just face Boston and thats a different beast.
Pick:Celtics 3 Point Overs – Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 (+120, FanDuel), Payton Pritchard Over 1.5 (-115, Bet365).
This is not a parlay but two related props that I both like and make a lot of sense. Chris Paul has notably taken less 3's and seen his efficiency drop in recent years. It is likely a loss of leg strength and stamina as he ages. Closeout speed from defenders is a little faster for an elder statesman CP3.
I also expect the minutes to reduce because the Spurs are not playing all out for wins (although some people want them to, they are not). If Paul plays less minutes, and Vassell is out, the Tre Jones over 3PM just to hit one makes a lot of sense.
Pick: Chris Paul Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-162, FanDuel), Tre Jones Over 0.5 3-Pointers Made (-145, Bet365)
Wemby has a lot of new teammates to integrate, a weak shooting cast without Vassell to start the season, and he is going against a defense that was so fiesty towards the end of last season and has two bigs to rotate and keep high energy pressure on Wembanyama.
This has increased vig to the under at sharper books, but we can pick off a cheap -105 at DraftKings where people want to bet into Wemby overs.
Pick:Victor Wembanyama Under 4.5 Assists (-105) — FanDuel
