Last night, the Knicks and Pacers punched their tickets to the second round with Game 6 victories.
The Cavaliers will look to claim the final spot in the Eastern Conference Semifinals with a victory over the Magic. However, if Games 3 and 4 are any indication, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner won't make that an easy task.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks took Game 5 in Los Angeles with a dominant victory over the Clippers led by Luka Doncic. The Mavericks took a 3-2 lead and could advance and face the Thunder with a victory tonight.
While Doncic had a double-double in the win, he only had a modest seven rebounds. Tonight, I'm expecting him to get some help on the glass from rookie Dereck Lively II. So, let's dig into my NBA player props tonight.
Paolo Banchero Over 24.5 Points (-106)
Cavs vs. Magic | 7 p.m. ET
Banchero comes into tonight's game averaging 24.8 points per game in this series. He's cleared his scoring line in three of the first five games in this series, including twice when the line was at 24.5 points. Those came in Games 3 and 5 when Banchero scored 31 and 39 points, respectively.
In Game 5, the Cavaliers were without Jarrett Allen — who was a late scratch — and he's questionable for tonight's game with a rib injury. Even in his absence, they still have Evan Mobley, but he slid over to center and didn't defend Banchero as often, particularly in the first three quarters.
That allowed Banchero to go to work, as he shot 14-for-24 from the field, 4-for-7 from 3 and 7-for-8 at the free-throw line.
Banchero has taken 20 field goal attempts in three of the first five games in this series, averaging 20.2 for the series. Banchero didn't shrink from the moment in a pivotal Game 5, and I expect the ball to be in his hands very often again tonight.
That'll likely lead to him taking 20 shots again and having the volume to score 25 points.
You can also back him for 30 points at +240 and 35 points at +750 on FanDuel.
He may even have a few baskets set up by Wagner.
Pick: Paolo Banchero Over 24.5 Points (-106)
Franz Wagner Over 4.5 Assists (-138)
Cavs vs. Magic | 7 p.m. ET
Wagner had only five assists in two of the first five games in this series, but it's not for a lack of opportunities. Wagner has had at least 10 potential assists in four of the first five games in this series, averaging 11.6 potential assists.
He was also hooked on four assists in Game 4 when he only had seven potential assists.
Wagner is still averaging 4.6 assists per game in this series and this is despite points being hard to come by with two high-level defensive teams facing off. The Magic didn't score 90 points in either of the first two games in this series when Wagner was only able to convert 5-of-26 potential assists.
Since, the Magic have averaged 112 points per game in the last three outings, including 116.5 in Games 3 and 4 in Orlando.
That's on brand for an Orlando team whose offensive rating was five points higher at home compared on the road in the regular season. If we can expect a better offensive performance from Orlando tonight, that'll also lead to more assists from Wagner.
He's coming into tonight's game with eight, four and six assists over his last three games. If he has 11-to-12 potential assists tonight, we only need him to convert 40-45% of them to reach five.
Any higher and he may match his recent performances over the last three game.
Wagner is +155 for six assists and +600 for eight assists on FanDuel tonight.
Pick: Franz Wagner Over 4.5 Assists (-138)
Dereck Lively II More Than 5.5 Rebounds
Clippers vs. Mavericks | 9:30 p.m. ET
After collecting just four rebounds in Game 1, Lively has surpassed this projection in three of his last four matchups with nine, six and seven rebounds in those outings.
Lively was a player that I considered backing in Game 5, but it's hard to tell which center Jason Kidd feels like going with from game-to-game. Daniel Gafford started Game 5, but he was quickly substituted out in both the first and third quarter for Lively and only played 19 minutes.
When Lively got in the game, he was a force. In addition to his rebounding, he also made five of his field goal attempts, leading to 12 points. He also blocked a shot and changed several others.
In 25 minutes, he was a +24 in plus/minus, the third-best mark on the team behind Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic.
Lively may come off the bench tonight, but he may see north of 20 minutes again following his game 5 performance. If so, I also like his chances of reaching this projection.
He's averaging 12.4 rebound chances per game in this series. He had 17 rebound chances in Game 5 and surpassed this projection despite only grabbing seven.
Tonight, the Clippers may not shoot as poorly as they did on Tuesday. However, if Lively gets 12 rebound chances tonight, he only needs to collect half of them surpass this projection.
