NBA Player Props Today | Saturday, Feb. 3
There are only six games on the NBA schedule tonight, with the All-Star Break quickly approaching. In the table below, you will find my top two NBA player props for Saturday, February 3, including under bets from two All-Stars – Tyrese Maxey and Anthony Davis. Let's break down how I am fading these two studs tonight!
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6 p.m. | |
| 8:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
After being named to his first All Star game, 76ers point guard Tyrese Maxey erupted for a career-high 51 points in a three-point victory over the Jazz on Thursday night. It was Maxey's second game scoring at least 50 points this season. However, this one came without Joel Embiid, who will be out for the foreseeable future with an injury. The 76ers are 4.5-point home favorites against the Nets, implied for 118 points. Expect another Maxey show.
In his 10 games played without Embiid this season, Maxey is averaging 27.8 points and 5.2 assists per game. Despite having an increased usage rate in this scenario, Maxey turns more into a scorer than a facilitator. Playing alongside Embiid, he is averaging a career-high 6.8 assists per game, which is a significant difference in role. In his 51-point game, Maxey had one assist in 41 minutes. He has gone under this prop line in six of his 10 games without Embiid.
Even though the Nets have lost 13 of their last 17 games, they have been a strong defensive unit. Especially against opposing guards, the Nets are only allowing 25.7 assists per game, which is tied for the eighth-lowest in the league. They also play at the eighth-slowest pace and allow only 46.8% shooting from the field. Maxey will attempt to increase the tempo, but he is looking to score rather than facilitate. This is a tough matchup for the explosive guard.
Maxey does lead the 76ers with 11.2 potential assists per game, but that number plummets when Embiid is off the floor. Our prop model has Maxey projected for only 5.3 assists in this matchup, which is significantly lower than his prop line. I would consider this prop down to -130 for value, but would love if they offered juice on under 5.5 assists.
Pick: Tyrese Maxey Under 6.5 Assists (-105)
Remember in the preseason when Darvin Ham wanted Anthony Davis to attempt six 3-pointers per game this year? That never came to fruition. In fact, Davis has done a complete 180 on Ham and has attempted only 1.2 per game. That is his lowest total since the 2014-'15 season, when Davis attempted 12 all season. Davis did shoot a perfect 3-for-3 from behind the arc in his last game, but that was the first game Davis made a 3-pointer since January 9th.
Playing against the Knicks in Madison Square Garden is arguably the toughest matchup for an opposing team. The Knicks are 18-5 at home this season and their defensive rating jumps to 109.9 compared to 116.4 on the road. Overall, the Knicks are allowing 109.5 points per game, which is the second-lowest in the league. They rank just outside the top 10 in 3-point defense, while opponents shoot 36% from distance. This is as tough as it gets for Davis.
Since joining the Lakers, Davis has made a 3-pointer in only three of his last seven games against the Knicks. The most he has ever made in a game during that time is one. It is unlikely that Davis attempts more than one 3-pointer in this matchup, and he may attempt none. The Knicks without Julius Randle are a little more susceptible to points allowed in the paint, which is where Davis lives. Expect the stout Knicks defense to hone in on stopping Davis.
The Knicks are 5.5-point home favorites, while the Lakers have a 111-point team total. At the end of the day this bet comes down to whether or not Davis can make one of his minimal 3-point attempts. With the Knicks playing so well at home, I'll take the under on Davis cashing in from long range tonight.
Pick: Anthony Davis Under 0.5 3-Pointers Made (-135)
