The New York Knicks (0-2) and Indiana Pacers (2-0) will face off in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Pacers are 1.5-point favorites over the Knicks on the spread, with the over/under set at 223.5 total points. Indiana is a -120 favorite to win outright, while New York is +100 to pull off the upset.
No team has ever come back after losing two straight games at home to start the conference finals. Indiana hasn't been to the NBA Finals in 25 years, their only appearance. The Knicks are down bad. The Pacers are up big. Things seem inevitable.
So, are we due for the classic plot twist in Game 3? Or will Indiana make short work to effectively end this series tonight? Let's get into my Knicks vs. Pacers predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, May 25.
Knicks vs Pacers Prediction for NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game 3
My Pacers vs. Knicks Game 3 best bet is on Indiana to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Pacers -1.5 (-110)
Knicks vs Pacers Odds, Picks for Sunday, May 25
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 223.5 -110 / -110 | +100 |
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 223.5 -110 / -110 | -120 |
- Knicks vs. Pacers spread: Pacers -1.5
- Knicks vs. Pacers over/under: 223.5 total points
- Knicks vs. Pacers moneyline: Knicks +100, Pacers -120
- Knicks vs. Pacers best bet: Pacers -1.5 (-110)
Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks Eastern Conference Finals Game 3 Preview
Pacers. Again.
The idea is that the Pacers can’t keep this up, and the Knicks will surely get one game. It likely occurs at some point, but we’ll come back to that.
My problem is the number. But first, some trends.
Is Game 3 really a zig-zag spot after the first zig-zag spot failed?
- Teams down 0-2 on the road in Game 3 are 9-12 SU and 10-11 ATS in Game 3 since 2003.
- Road underdogs down 0-2 are 4-10 SU and 6-8 ATS.
- After the opening round, road 'dogs down 0-2 are 2-7 SU and 4-5 ATS.
- Tom Thibodeau's Knicks teams coming off a loss on the road are 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS.
- Teams that were favored by more than a possession at home and lost outright, and then were road 'dogs in the next game have gone 36-45 SU and 49-32 (65%).
- Teams with back-to-back games to open a series where they had more turnovers than the opponent and are listed as road 'dogs in Game 3 are 13-18 SU and 17–14 ATS.
So, a lot of those stats suggest that the Knicks cover the spread but lose Game 3 outright.
Except, here’s my issue: the line is too short.
I made the spread for the first two games of this series Knicks -0.7, so I was on the Pacers.
That’s not a victory lap, that’s to set up where I think these next two games should be.
Now, Game 3 opened at just Pacers -1.5 because the power rating for those teams cannot shift far enough, even after two losses, especially with one of them having a miraculous comeback.
This means that, from my perspective, the market is still behind in terms of how good Indiana is relative to the Knicks.
Knicks vs Pacers Game 3 Betting Predictions
Pacers -1.5 (-110)
I make the spread for this game Pacers -3.3.
Not way better than the Knicks, but better.
I’m also much lower on the standard being given for homecourt in the playoffs, which I feel pretty good about, given how road teams are 39.7% SU in these playoffs.
The market has given the Knicks a huge homecourt advantage and the Pacers a very small one.
I don't know how you come to a place where the Pacers are -1.5 at home, given what we’ve seen in the regular season and the playoffs.
It seems intuitive that the Knicks will get one of these games. But I also don’t think they get both. And the market is still wrong.
So, once again, I am back on the Pacers in Game 3 tonight.
Under 223.5 (-110)
After the first game of this series flew over the total, the second game went comfortably under.
What’s been interesting is how the market has reacted.
- The total opened at 227.5 ahead of Game 2, and was hammered by sharp money down to 224.5, and then went under.
- The total for Game 3 opened at 225 and has already seen similar action, down to 223.5 at this time of writing.
Here’s a pretty relevant stat: With Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns on the floor, the Knicks have allowed a 150 defensive rating in this series.
That’s 1.5 points per possession. That’s “throwing a Nerf ball in an oil drum from close range” kind of efficiency.
That pairing averaged 29 minutes per game coming into this series. They played 28 minutes together in the first game, and then only played 18 minutes together in the second.
The issue stems from an inability to mesh schemes.
With Brunson, you can build a good defense (like last season’s) with a switch-all scheme, but not in drop coverage because Brunson can neither get around the screen nor really contest if he can.
With Towns, you can build a good defense having him play drop or at-level coverage, but he’s weaker on most switches (with some exceptions like big forwards like Kevin Durant or Jayson Tatum) and struggles in drop coverage.
If Thibs is playing that combo less, and it’s been the primary defensive problem, then the defense will likely be a bit better in Game 3 tonight.
On Indy’s side, you would think the hot shooting would cool down at some point. So, the under is definitely the play.
Myles Turner Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-130) / Over 15.5 Points (+110)
Turner is shooting 61.9 percent on three-point attempts at the Fieldhouse in the playoffs.
He’s also gotten slightly more looks at home than on the road and has averaged four attempts in the first two games.
In tandem with the three-point prop, if the Knicks try and switch all screens and guard him better on the perimeter, Turner will score inside on switches against Bridges or Brunson.
That’s how he punished the Cavaliers in the previous round.
Tyrese Haliburton Under 20.5 Points (-115)
Thibodeau actually made a big adjustment last game.
He abandoned the drop coverage that he (foolishly) employed against Haliburton in the first game of the series, and switched most on-ball screens against him.
Haliburton is a shifty scorer and has proven he can rise up and fire (like his dagger against Brunson late in Game 2).
But he will inherently shoot less and less efficiently against switches.
That change saw him go under this number last game, and I think the Knicks continue the plan in Game 3 tonight.
Mikal Bridges Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists (+110)
Bridges has gone over this number in both games of this series, and seven of the last 11 against the Pacers.
He didn’t rebound in the first matchup of this series, but had assists. He didn’t have assists last game, but he rebounded.
The Knicks are still getting offensive rebound chances and dominating the defensive glass, but it’s not necessarily just Towns, Hart, and Robinson.
Jalen Brunson Over 7.5 Assists (+115)
Brunson’s assists go up from 6.5 assists per 75 possessions to 9.4 assists per 75 possessions without Brunson in this postseason.
If I think the Knicks will play that combo less often, it makes sense to play this line.
Knicks vs Pacers Best Bets for Game 3
- Pacers -1.5 (-110)
- Under 223.5 (-110)
- Myles Turner Over 1.5 3PM (-130) / Over 15.5 Points (+110)
- Tyrese Haliburton Under 20.5 Points (-115)
- Mikal Bridges Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists (+110)
- Jalen Brunson Over 7.5 Assists (+115)
Pacers vs. Knicks Betting Trends
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