Thunder vs Spurs Odds
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -112 | 242 -110o / -110u | -355 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -108 | 242 -110o / -110u | +285 |
The Oklahoma City Thunder head south Wednesday night to take on the San Antonio Spurs. The Thunder may sit atop the Western Conference standings, but don't completely count out the Spurs and their rookie sensation.
Let's take a look at the Thunder vs. Spurs odds and make a prediction and pick in our NBA betting preview for Wednesday, Jan. 24.
Thunder vs Spurs Prediction
Pick: Spurs +8 · Victor Wembanyama Over 22.5 Points · Check for ROY Opportunities
Thunder Betting Outlook
The Thunder are not playing well, and their current three-game win streak is a false flag. After losing two straight games in Los Angeles — falling to both the Lakers and Clippers — the Thunder have beaten the Jazz, Wolves and Blazers.
However, if we look a bit closer and evaluate the wins, they don't paint a picture of confidence.
They almost let a lead slip away against the Jazz, whereas the Wolves and Blazers victories were come-from-behind miracles. The Wolves were up 10 in the fourth quarter before the Thunder stormed back, and the Blazers feel so robbed by the refs that they're protesting their loss to the league office.
The Thunder enter their matchup against the Spurs with a rest disadvantage while barely ekeing out victories. This is a good sell-high spot on OKC.
Spurs Betting Outlook
When basketball fans look back on Jan. 22, 2024, they'll point to Joel Embiid giving Victor Wembanyama his "welcome to the league" moment, punishing the Spurs with a career-high 70 points.
However, some of us bettors will also realize it was when Wemby regained the top spot over Chet Holmgren in the Rookie of the Year odds.
Despite Embiid having a monster game, the Spurs played solid basketball. They're playing Wembanyama at the 5, giving him more space to work with and a bigger speed mismatch against his opponents. They're also utilizing a true point guard in Tre Jones, who facilitates offense and gets teammates to the right spot.
Just as this is a sell-high spot on the Thunder, it's also a buy-low opportunity on the Spurs. Their record no longer indicates how competitively they're playing.
Thunder vs Spurs Picks
The Spurs enter this game as the noticeably sharp side of the market. FanDuel is reporting 60% of the tickets on OKC but 53% of the money on San Antonio. This shows public tickets on the Thunder, sharp action on the Spurs and line movement in accordance with the big money coming in.
The line has dropped to 7.5 at most places. If you can still find an 8, it's a solid play because the four most common NBA outcomes are seven, five, six and eight, so backing an underdog at +8 secures all of those numbers.
However, if you miss the available 8, think about playing Wemby's points total over. The game total is priced at 241, so if the Spurs keep this close and competitive, it likely correlates with Wembanyama scoring.
The other thing that must be mentioned is the Rookie of the Year race. This game has a strong chance to be a narrative driver for the season-long award.
Right now, the best odds on Wembanyama are -115 with Holmgren a close second at +100. Considering how close these are to the -110s we would pay on game spreads, or -113 on prop lines, you're better off just betting the game angle that correlates with the expected swing.
For example, it's better to bet Spurs +8 (-110) instead of Wembanyama ROY (-115) because if Wemby takes a stronghold in this race, the +8 likely hits, you pay less juice and return the money sooner.
The reason why one should look to attack the futures market is if they have a pre-existing ticket on one of the candidates.
If you feel this is an opportunity to create an arbitrage situation between the two players and generate a portfolio approach to the award, then I would strongly suggest doing this. In the case of either extreme happening — a dominant Spurs win or a dominant Thunder win — we may never see the odds this close for the rest of the season.
Pick: Spurs +8 · Victor Wembanyama Over 22.5 Points · Check for ROY Opportunities
