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College Basketball Best Bets: 3 NCAAB Expert Picks and Predictions for Thanksgiving

College Basketball Best Bets: 3 NCAAB Expert Picks and Predictions for Thanksgiving article feature image
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Credit:

David Banks-Imagn Images. Pictured: Arrinten Page (Northwestern)

Thanksgiving is known for the NFL, but we have a juicy college basketball slate on Thursday, including Duke vs. Arkansas, UNC vs. Michigan State and more.

The games are not only great, but there's betting value all across the board.

So, read below for college basketball best bets, including three NCAAB expert picks and predictions for Thursday, November 27.


College Basketball Best Bets

GameTime (ET)Pick
St. Bonavenutre Bonnies LogoEast Carolina Pirates Logo
12 p.m.
North Carolina Tar Heels LogoMichigan State Spartans Logo
4:30 p.m.
Oklahoma State Cowboys LogoNorthwestern Wildcats Logo
10:30 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

St. Bonaventure vs. East Carolina

St. Bonavenutre Bonnies Logo
Thursday, Nov. 27
12 p.m. ET
FS1
East Carolina Pirates Logo
East Carolina +9.5
BetMGM Logo

By Alex Kolodziej

We tip off Thanksgiving action with a late-morning edge on the St. Bonaventure vs. East Carolina spread.

The Action PRO line is a full 3.5 points off the odds on Thursday when the two meet in a neutral-site Florida clash at the Fort Myers Tip-Off.

According to PRO Projections, the smart way to get down on Bonnies vs. Pirates is taking East Carolina to cover.

St. Bonaventure is favored by 9.5 points as of Wednesday night. However, advanced hoops models made the fair point spread at open more like St. Bonaventure -6, meaning there's value on the Pirates.

It's a B+ grade, too.

Pick: East Carolina +9.5

Click below for more PRO picks from Alex:

College Basketball Thanksgiving Odds: 4 Picks, +1160 Parlay Image

North Carolina vs. Michigan State

North Carolina Tar Heels Logo
Thursday, Nov. 27
4:30 p.m. ET
FOX
Michigan State Spartans Logo
Michigan State -2.5
bet365 Logo

By Mike McNamara

This is an exciting matchup between two teams that are both still undefeated as the calendar nears the turn to December.

North Carolina and Michigan State have had plenty of blockbuster matchups over the years, and Thanksgiving Day could be another one.

When breaking down this matchup, I give the edge to the Spartans because of how they're playing on the defensive end.

Michigan State has the ability to make things very difficult for the Tar Heels in the half-court, and on the other side of the floor, I don't see UNC being able to create the same level of resistance.

Look for the Spartans' depth to win out over time, and they should have the edge on the backboards as well.

Give me Michigan State to win and cover as a short favorite in what should be a fun one in Fort Myers, Florida.

Pick: Michigan State -2.5 (Play to -3)


Oklahoma State vs. Northwestern

Oklahoma State Cowboys Logo
Thursday, Nov. 27
10:30 p.m. ET
Big Ten Network
Northwestern Wildcats Logo
Northwestern -2.5
bet365 Logo

By Evan Abrams

Oklahoma State and Northwestern will battle at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois, as part of the CBS Sports Thanksgiving Classic.

The Cowboys are unbeaten entering this game and haven't scored lower than 85 points in a single game so far this season. The level of competition hasn't been exactly stiff, but two of the second games were recorded as current Q2 victories.

Meanwhile, Northwestern is 5-1 with its lone loss coming against Virginia. The Wildcats beat South Carolina and DePaul by a combined four points, so they have early experience in close games.

If the Wildcats are going to win this affair, they'll need Nick Martinelli (19.3 PPG), Arrinten Page (15.7 PPG) and Jayden Reid (13.5 PPG) to show out — as usual.

That's what my system — "Bad ATS over Good ATS, High Total" — calls for, as the play is on Northwestern to cover the number.

In early-season college basketball, games featuring high totals and mismatched teams against the spread often create value on the underperforming side.

When one team has struggled to cover (Northwestern hasn't covered in the three quality games its played this season) while its opponent has consistently exceeded expectations (Oklahoma State covered against USF and won outright as a 2.5-point 'dog against Texas A&M), public sentiment tends to favor the team with the stronger record against the number.

However, in fast-paced, high-total environments, volatility increases and closing margins tighten.

Poor ATS teams are often priced at their lowest point, while efficient teams are overvalued following strong runs.

Early in the season, with limited data and defensive structures still forming, these matchups frequently swing back toward balance, allowing the undervalued side to outperform inflated lines and cover at a profitable rate.

Pick: Northwestern -2.5

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