The Tarleton State Texans take on the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge, LA. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on SEC Network+.
LSU is favored by -17.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -3500. The total is set at 147 points.
Here’s my Tarleton State vs. LSU predictions and college basketball picks for November 5, 2025.
Tarleton State vs LSU Prediction
My Pick: LSU -17.5
My Tarleton State vs LSU best bet is on the Tigers spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Tarleton State vs. LSU Odds
| Tarleton State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -110 | 147 -110o / -110u | +1500 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -110 | 147 -110o / -110u | -3500 |
- Tarleton State vs LSU spread: LSU -17.5
- Tarleton State vs LSU over/under: 147 points
- Tarleton State vs LSU moneyline: Tarleton State +1500, LSU -3500
Tarleton State vs LSU College Basketball Betting Preview
The Texans (0-1) enter this one following a 96-76 loss at SMU in their season opener. Despite the final score, Tarleton State competed early, leading several times in the first half before fading late.
Dior Johnson was a bright spot, pouring in 23 points on 6-of-12 shooting, including 3-of-4 from deep and a perfect 8-for-8 from the free throw line. Johnson’s performance was tied for the most points by a WAC player on opening night and showcased the Texans’ potential to score in spurts even against stronger competition.
LSU, meanwhile, begins its 2024–25 campaign after an up-and-down season that ended with a 14-18 overall record and an 11-7 home mark. The Tigers averaged 73.8 points per game while shooting 44.5% from the field, but they shot just 30.5% from 3-point range last season.
With several offseason additions and a chance to reset expectations, LSU will look to start fast in front of its home crowd.
This matchup fits neatly into the “Starting a New Favs” system developed by Evan Abrams — a strategy identifying college basketball teams that open as favorites despite struggling against the spread the previous season.
These programs often enter the new year undervalued by the public but backed by sharp early money, signaling optimism from oddsmakers.
LSU checks every box here: a losing ATS record last year, renewed roster talent and an opening line that reflects confidence in a rebound. The Tigers’ size, athleticism and home-court edge should overwhelm a Tarleton team that went 1-14 on the road last season and gave up nearly 100 points at SMU.
With the total capped at 147, this projects as a controlled, efficient LSU win rather than a wild shootout — the exact environment where “Starting a New Favs” teams have historically thrived.
My Pick: LSU -17.5
