The Buccaneers (7-6) host the Falcons (4-9) tonight on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. TNF will broadcast on Prime Video.
Falcons vs Buccaneers odds list the Buccaneers as -280 favorites on the moneyline and Falcons as +225 underdogs. The game total is 43.5 points (-112o / -108u). The Buccaneers are 5.5-point favorites on the spread (Buccaneers -5.5; -109).
Below, you can find our Falcons vs Bucs picks and Thursday Night Football best bets, which include predictions for the spread, moneyline, over/under and props for Mike Evans (receiving yards) and Bijan Robinson (receiving yards).
Falcons vs Bucs Picks & Props
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Falcons vs Bucs Odds
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 43.5 -112o / -108u | +225 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 -109 | 43.5 -112o / -108u | -280 |
Thursday Night Football odds via Caesars
Falcons vs Bucs Against the Spread Prediction
By Billy Ward
The Buccaneers are coming off a shocking upset loss to the Saints that has damaged their playoff hopes. While the Bucs are still in the driver’s seat of the NFC South, three of their last four games are against division rivals, including two against the Panthers, who have an identical 7-6 record.
That makes this a must-win game against the Falcons, who are 4-9 and have nothing but pride left to play for. Atlanta has lost seven of its last eight games after a 3-2 start, and have been a much worse team since being forced to go back to Kirk Cousins at QB.
The big problem for the Bucs last week was the rushing ability of Saints QB Tyler Shough, who ran for two touchdowns. Cousins hasn’t rushed for a score since 2022, so that’s not a concern here.
Additionally, Tampa Bay managed just 122 yards of passing offense. There’s good news on that front as well, with Mike Evans reportedly set to make his return on Thursday. That gives Tampa its full complement of offensive weaponry for the first time in a while.
The Falcons are still without star wide receiver Drake London, and might also be missing tight end Kyle Pitts (questionable), who has stepped up considerably in London’s absence.
I’m not sure how the Falcons keep this one competitive, so I’ll lay the 4.5 points with the Bucs.
Pick: Buccaneers -4.5 (-115)
Falcons vs Bucs Over/Under Pick
The Buccaneers offense has quietly continued to be one of the worst in the NFL over the past two months. In their last seven games, the Bucs’ 4.4 yards per play ranks 31st in the league.
During the same span, Baker Mayfield has generated just 5.3 yards per pass attempt, a league low for quarterbacks with significant playing time.
The Falcons offense has not been much better, and even when they find success on 1st and 2nd down, they continue to struggle on 3rd down. The Falcons are second-to-last in 3rd-down conversion rate, and they are certain to face several key 3rd-down situations tonight.
The Tampa Bay defense has been excellent against the run this season. Opposing offenses have a 42% rush success rate against the Bucs, which makes them the second-best unit league-wide, and matches their ranking in adjusted line yards per rush.
Teams also rarely move the chains on the ground against the Bucs, who are only one of five teams to allow 65 or fewer rushing first downs this year.
This means Kirk Cousins will be responsible for sustaining drives for the Falcons, and without Drake London in the mix, I don’t believe Cousins can consistently convert in the situations needed.
In addition to the difficulties both passing attacks will face in this game, we are getting to play this total below the key number of 44, making this under even more enticing.
Pick: Under 44.5 (-115); bet to Under 44
Falcons vs Bucs Moneyline Pick
I think the Bucs are overvalued in the market, as shown with this line.
Baker Mayfield is banged up, and his performance since the beginning of the season — when he was leading the Bucs down the field for a game-winning drive every week — has waned.
Do I think the Falcons are any good? No. However, it is tough to find any reason to justify the Bucs being a divisional favorite late in the season by more than a field goal.
Action Network has the Bucs as one one of the luckiest teams in the NFL (6th), while the Falcons rank 30th.
I like the Falcons on the spread at +5.5, and I'm also betting them on the moneyline to win outright.
Pick: Falcons Moneyline (+225)
Bijan Robinson Props: Receiving Yards
Bijan Robinson has had at least 39 receiving yards in three of his last four games and in 9-of-13 games this season.
Even in a mediocre matchup and projected game script, this would be an appealing number. The fact that the Falcons are 4.5-point underdogs could lead to more dropbacks for Kirk Cousins and more targets for Robinson.
The real selling point here is a matchup against the Buccaneers, who are very tough against the run but have allowed more receiving yards to running backs than any other team in the NFL this season.
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Mike Evans Props: Receiving Yards
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Mike Evans' receiving yards prop tonight.
THE BLITZ is projecting Evans to record 33.29 receiving yards, while sportsbooks imply 52.51. Evans has been sidelined since Week 7 after breaking his collarbone; it's unclear how much he'll be utilized after such a long absence, not to mention the Bucs offense will be fully healthy for the first time with Emeka Egbuka, Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin.
The model believes there is a 73% chance he records fewer than 45.5 receiving yards, so there is some value on the under at -105. This play is good down to at least -176.
Pick: Mike Evans Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-105; bet to -176)
