Welcome to the NFL Pick-Six.
Early each week, I look ahead to the upcoming slate and parlay six NFL moneylines that "should" win — at least on paper — for the week to come. It's a quick, early look at the next games on tap and we'll hope we hit a few of these per season and have some fun along the way.
And like any good pick-six, we'll wrap up with my Extra Point, which is one more thing you need to know — often a future to bet as we flip the calendar to another new NFL week.
Let's get to my NFL Week 7 pick-six moneyline parlay, with odds +630 at FanDuel at the time of writing.
NFL Moneyline Picks — Week 7 Parlay
Rams Moneyline (-148)
at Jaguars (NFL London Game); Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET
Let's start with the early Sunday morning NFL London Game, which looks like the best overseas game of the year featuring two potential playoff teams in the Rams and Jaguars.
These 4-2 teams are not equals.
The Rams may likely be without star wide receiver Puka Nacua (ankle), but are otherwise firing on all cylinders, now top 10 by DVOA both running and passing on both offense and defense. The offense isn't a big surprise, but the defensive rise — led by a young and talented front seven — is.
The Jaguars are much improved but showed their flaws in a loss to the Seahawks, and, frankly, Jacksonville was lucky to beat the Chiefs, too.
L.A.'s pass rush will be a tough test for this improved Jaguars offensive line. While Jacksonville is trending up, the Jags might have improved to average more than great.
It's typically a good idea just taking the favorite in these neutral games.
Rams head coach Sean McVay is a perfect 19-0 straight up (SU) in non-home games as a four-point favorite or more, if this line gets there.
Patriots Moneyline (-360)
at Titans; Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Expect a lot of talk about Mike Vrabel in this one.
Vrabel returns to Tennessee with the division-leading Patriots after the Titans parted ways with him to hire Brian Callahan, who was our first head coach fired for the 2025 season (replaced by retread Mike McCoy).
Tennessee can hardly perform worse than it did under Callahan, and it's normal to expect something of a dead-cat bounce under a new coach, but this matchup looks like a mismatch — especially Drake Maye against the Titans' pass defense.
Tennessee just doesn't have a ton of defensive talent outside of Jeffery Simmons, and Maye is on a roll and hitting everything right now.
Cam Ward should watch and learn.
Chiefs Moneyline (-700)
vs Raiders; Sunday 1 p.m. ET
The Chiefs have long dominated this divisional rivalry — winning 17 of the last 21 — and it sure feels like Kansas City is all the way back after a dominating Sunday night win over the Lions.
Kansas City's offense is back to firing on all cylinders. The Chiefs offense had a 43% Success Rate after an 0-2 start — bottom 10 in the league — but that figure has leapt all the way to 64% the last two games.
Suddenly Kansas City has found its deadly short-passing game again on top of a revitalized run game, and now star WR Rashee Rice is back in the fold. The Raiders defense will be no match.
This may not seem like a super exciting pick, but it does at about +100 to our parlay, so we'll take the extra payout.
It might be time to invest in Chiefs futures again, too.
Kansas City is +160 to win the AFC West (DraftKings) and that feels long, even at 3-3. The Chargers are lucky to not be on a three-game losing streak with injuries riddling the offense, and the Broncos probably should've lost to the Jets and their negative passing game.
FTN has the Chiefs nearly 50-50 to win the division, so there's value at +160.
Packers Moneyline (-310)
at Cardinals; Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
So much for that 2-0 start — the Cardinals have lost four straight since and it's clear their offense is broken.
Kyler Murray was sidelined on Sunday and could be out again, though it's telling that the offense almost looked better with Jacoby Brissett, even without lead WR Marvin Harrison Jr., who could also miss this one. That offense should have little chance against Micah Parsons and an outstanding Packers defense.
Green Bay has struggled to put teams away and Arizona is hanging around in games, but the Packers' pass defense should be able to slam the door shut late even if this one is close.
Lions Moneyline (-235)
vs Buccaneers (Monday Night Football); 7 p.m. ET
Our final Monday Night Football doubleheader of the season sets up a key NFC matchup that should shape the top of the conference and the race for the 1-seed.
These teams have played three times over the last two seasons. The Lions won twice — including the most important one, in the playoffs — and badly outplayed Tampa in the third.
Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown have shredded Todd Bowles' Bucs defense consistently with the short passing game. The Bucs haven't had any answers, and they also enter this game with a litany of injuries.
It looks like two — or all three — top receivers may be out, and there are still cluster injuries on the offensive line and in the secondary, while Detroit should be getting healthier with the expected return of star DT Alim McNeill.
Even after losing to the Chiefs, the Lions look like maybe the most complete team in the NFL right now. They're simply good at everything, and that loss may have opened a window to buy Detroit futures.
A +175 division ticket (ESPN Bet) implies 36% while FTN has Detroit at 59% and a clear better team than the Packers, Bears and Vikings.
There's also value on Detroit to win the NFC (+460, FanDuel) and even its first Super Bowl (+900, BetRivers) if you're ready to go all the way in.
Seahawks Moneyline (-176)
vs Texans (Monday Night Football); 10 p.m. ET
We'll wrap our first Pick Six with the second half of the Monday night doubleheader, and I'm backing the Seahawks a third straight week.
The Seahawks are really good!
Seattle ranks top four by DVOA on offense, defense and special teams, and the Seahawks are the second-best 4-2 team ever by DVOA. The defense and special teams were supposed to be this good, but Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have been the real revelation.
Houston is coming off its bye week after finally finding its footing against Baltimore, but that was the corpse of the Ravens and this is another test entirely in flying west to face a red-hot Seahawks squad.
If Seattle can keep Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson at bay, Darnold's should find some answers in play-action. It's also tough to see Houston's offense finding many against the Seahawks.
I've been recommending Seattle futures for weeks. If you like the Seahawks here, there's still value.
Seattle is still -155 to make the playoffs (BetRivers) despite being around 70-80% in many models to get there. The Seahawks are +300 to win a crowded division (BetMGM) because the 49ers are being priced too highly with all their injuries.
In fact, let's finish out today with one more Seattle future in today's Extra Point.
Anderson's Extra Point
Nick Emmanwori to win Defensive Rookie of the Year +6000 (ESPN Bet)
The Defensive Rookie of the Year race is wide open.
Giants edge rusher Abdul Carter has been the favorite all season and remains that way. He's the right favorite, but it's up to the eye test and advanced metrics — like pressure rate — to show what Carter is doing, because he has just 13 tackles and 0.5 sacks on the season. Carter is good, but the results so far should not make him such a heavy favorite — implying value elsewhere.
Enter Seahawks safety Nick Emmanwori, and emphasis on enter since he effectively made his Seahawks debut this week.
Emmanwori played only five snaps in the opener before getting hurt, though he recorded a tackle for a loss almost immediately. He had another TFL in his return against the Bucs, playing about half the snaps, but this was his first week as a full-time starter and he added yet another TFL and led Seattle in tackles with nine — he was all over the field:
Nick Emmanwori is Mike Macdonald’s do it all chess piece
Great instincts, versatility, along with athleticism pic.twitter.com/o8iVruDkw5
— ᴅᴏxx ⚡️ (@new_era72) October 13, 2025
"Mike Macdonald's new chess piece" should immediately have your attention, because that's a reference to do-everything safety Kyle Hamilton, who turned into one of the league's true defensive superstars under Macdonald in Baltimore.
Hamilton plays "safety" because we have to give him a position, but he does a bit of everything for Baltimore, like a queen on a chess board. Sometimes that means linebacker, sometimes it's in the slot, other times blitzing the passer or just traditional safety.
Hamilton is a superstar in this league, the No. 2 ranked safety at PFF. Any guesses on who's No. 1?
Why, that would be Emmanwori, on admittedly few snaps, unleashed as Macdonald's new toy.
If they keep winning and this aggressive defense keeps shutting opponents down, the Seahawks will get more and more attention, and Monday night is a perfect chance for a national audience to meet this rookie star-in-the-making.
Emmanwori looks like a fun long-shot ticket at +6000 for Defensive Rookie of the Year (Hard Rock) in a wide-open race.
Be sure to shop around and check your locals — Emmanwori is +5000 at most books but not even listed yet at others. Get in while the gettin's good.
