Welcome to Thanksgiving week! The NFL has four games on tap for Thursday and Friday to kick off the weekend slate.
Let's take a look at this week's Thanksgiving schedule and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.
Here's the Thanksgiving Week 13 edition of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Monday, Nov. 24, at 8 a.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Chalk City
Favorites Reign on Turkey Day
Favorites have historically dominated on Thanksgiving. Since 2004, favorites on Thanksgiving are 51-9 straight up (SU) and 40-20 against the spread.
In the Wild Card era (since 1990), favorites of 7 points or more on Thanksgiving are 30-5 SU and 25-10 ATS, with the Ravens fitting that bill this week.
Road Warriors
Chiefs Laying It
The Chiefs are the lone road favorite on the Thanksgiving slate.
Road favorites are 25-1 SU and 20-6 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2004, with the only loss coming back in 2009, when the Giants fell to the Broncos, 26-6.
It's Been A While
Cowboys, Lions Struggle
It's one or the other. The Lions and Cowboys haven't gone a combined 2-0 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2001, and they haven't both gone 2-0 SU/ATS on Thanksgiving since 1994.
Extra Time
Chiefs, Lions Off OT
Chiefs won in OT vs. Colts.
Lions won in OT vs. Giants.
Teams on short rest off overtime, when their opponent is not off OT, are 26-48 SU and 24-47-3 ATS in the last 20 years, failing to cover the spread by 3.9 points per game. When that team is on the road, like the Chiefs, they are 9-28 SU and 11-25-1 ATS.
When that same overtime team plays on a Thursday, they are 6-21 SU and 5-22 ATS in that span, with the Raiders actually covering vs. the Broncos in Week 10 and the Bears covering vs. the Lions in this spot last year.
Both teams are in unique spots:
- The Lions are the fourth team off OT to play on a Thursday at 1 p.m. ET or earlier. Those teams went 1-2 SU. Ironically, all four games involved the Lions.
- The Chiefs join only the 2012 Texans as teams to play on a Thursday off OT, with their offense logging 90+ plays in that overtime game.
Jungle Love
Cincinnati's Big Line
A Bengals upset of the Ravens on Thanksgiving, depending on the closing line, could make history.
Biggest Upsets on Thanksgiving since 1980
1993 — Dolphins +10 over DAL
2023 — Packers +8.5 over DET
2015 — Bears +7.5 over GB
1986 — Seahawks +7.5 over DAL
A New World
Packers As Underdogs
This is Green Bay's first game as an underdog this season and their first since facing the Eagles in the playoffs last year.
Under LaFleur, Green Bay has gone 18-6-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more and 14-4 ATS as a 'dog of more than 3 points. LaFleur is the only head coach in the Super Bowl era with a winning record as an underdog.
Crowd Movement
Public Feast
Betting Thanksgiving in the past has been as easy as following the crowds.
- Favorites with 60%+ of tickets are 24-10 ATS
- Public sides (51%+ of tickets) are 36-20 ATS
- Public sides who are favorites are 32-15 ATS
- Public sides are .500 ATS or better every year since 2014 and 12 of the past 13 years
- Since 2005, eight teams have closed with 75% or more of the spread tickets on Thanksgiving, and those sides went 8-0 SU and ATS.
Biggest Public Sides on Thanksgiving Since 2005
- 82%: 2023 49ers, -7 at SEA (W, 31-13)
- 80%: 2024 Cowboys, -4.5 vs. NYG (W, 27-20)
- 80%: 2019 Saints, -7 at ATL (W, 26-18)
- 79%: 2005 Falcons, -3 at DET (W, 27-7)
- 77%: 2012 Patriots, -7 at NYJ (W, 49-19)
- 77%: 2008 Cowboys, -11.5 vs. SEA (W, 34-9)
- 75%: 2010 Patriots, -6 at DET (W, 45-24)
- 75%: 2008 Titans, -11 at DET (W, 47-10)
Here are updated lines and betting percentages for all four games on Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
Win Total Times
In The Air This Week
📈 Overs
- Cashed: Colts (7.5), Patriots (8.5)
- Cash with win: Rams (9.5), Broncos (9.5), Bears (8.5), Seahawks (8.5), Jaguars (7.5), Panthers (6.5)
📉 Unders
- Cashed: Commanders (9.5), Bengals (9.5)
- Cash with loss: Bills (12.5), Ravens (11.5), Chiefs (11.5), Vikings (9.5), Cardinals (8.5), Titans (6.5)
NFL Thanksgiving and Black Friday
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➤ Matt LaFleur has been listed as an underdog in 38 total games as coach of the Packers. Green Bay is 20-18 SU and 25-13-1 ATS in those games.
This is Green Bay's first game as an underdog this season and their first since facing the Eagles in the playoffs last year.
Under LaFleur, Green Bay has gone 18-6-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more and 14-4 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points.
LaFleur is the only head coach in the Super Bowl era with a winning record as an underdog.
➤ The Packers have had their issues against the Lions. They are 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. Detroit. Since 2017, the Packers are 3-13-1 ATS vs. the Lions.
➤ The Lions are 8-12 ATS on Thanksgiving over the last 20 years. More recently, they’ve been better, going 8-5 ATS since 2012.
➤ Since 2005, the public has faded the Lions ATS 12 times on Thanksgiving (51%+ of tickets on the opponent) — Detroit is 0-12 SU in those games (3-9 ATS).
➤ This is the Lions’ third straight game as a favorite on Thanksgiving, their first such stretch since 2013–16. Overall, the Lions are 11-2 SU as a favorite on Thanksgiving in the Wild Card era (since 1990).
DET QBs favored on Thanksgiving since 2000: Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford and Charlie Batch.
Lions on Thanksgiving since 2004:
- As Favorite: 5-1 SU
- As Underdog: 0-15 SU
➤ The Lions won but failed to cover vs. the Giants last week. Under Dan Campbell, Detroit is 19-5-1 ATS the game after failing to cover, outperforming the spread by 7.1 PPG — the best ATS mark since he took over in 2021. The second-best? John Harbaugh, who is also in this spot this week.
Best ATS Record After ATS Loss – Last 5 Years
- Dan Campbell: 19-5-1 ATS
- John Harbaugh: 23-12 ATS
- Mike Tomlin: 21-12 ATS
➤ We’ve entered the Jordan Love zone. In the first 10 weeks of the season, Love and the Packers are 12-13-1 SU. From Week 11 on, he is 14-7 SU.
➤ The Packers are becoming a staple on Thanksgiving. This year marks their third straight appearance — rare for a team not named Detroit or Dallas.
Matt LaFleur is 2-0 SU/ATS on Thanksgiving and is looking to join Wade Phillips as the only head coaches to start 3-0 ATS on Thanksgiving over the last 20 years.
➤ Jared Goff has had some close calls on Thanksgiving. He is 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS in four starts — earning his first win last year.
Margin by year:
- Won by 3 in 2024
- Lost by 7 in 2023
- Lost by 3 in 2022
- Lost by 2 in 2021
➤ Goff has started 22 career games on short rest.
- With the Lions: 5-6 SU, 8-3 ATS
- With the Rams: 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS
He’s covered 9 of his past 12 starts on short rest, including winning his last three outright.
➤ Matt LaFleur has coached 18 games with the Packers on short rest. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS as an underdog and 4-9 ATS as a favorite in those games. They are 6-3 ATS on the road and 3-6 ATS at home at Lambeau.
➤ With the Lions, Jared Goff is 18-8-1 ATS vs. the NFC North. Since 2018 (with Lions + Rams), Goff is 28-14-2 ATS vs. his own division — 2nd of 130 QBs, behind only Dak Prescott.
This season, Goff and the Lions are 1-2 ATS vs. the NFC North.
➤ Jared Goff has finished .500 ATS or better at home for seven straight seasons. He is 3-2 ATS this year after last week vs. the Giants. Since 2018, Goff is 38-24-3 ATS (62%) at home — the best mark of any QB in the NFL.
➤ Over the last four seasons, the Lions are 45-20-1 against the first-half spread, including 6-5 1H ATS this season. Since 2022, Goff is 32-12 1H ATS when playing inside a dome.
➤ Jordan Love has started five Thursday games in his career — three of them against the Lions. After this week, that becomes four of six.
In his three previous Thursday matchups vs. Detroit, the over is 3-0, with all three games totaling 50+ combined points.
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➤ Whenever Patrick Mahomes faces a team on short rest — regardless of whether he is, too — the Chiefs are 19-3 SU in those games.
Mahomes and Kansas City have won 13 straight in this spot, with their last loss coming to the Titans back in 2021.
➤ The Cowboys are 2-4 ATS in their last six Thanksgiving games after covering vs. Washington and the Giants the past two years.
They are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 Thanksgiving games dating back to 2011 — failing to cover by 8.3 PPG — and 8-12 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005.
The Cowboys are also 1-7 against the first-half spread on Thanksgiving since 2017. They are 2-13 1H ATS on Thanksgiving since 2010.
➤ Dak Prescott has made seven starts on Thanksgiving; he is 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS.
Even after last year’s cover, his 2-5 ATS mark is the worst of any QB to start on Thanksgiving since 1990.
In total, Dak has made 20 starts on short rest. After last week, he is 8-12 ATS, including 5-9 ATS when that game is at home.
➤ Dallas won and covered on Thanksgiving in 2023 and 2024. Before that, they hadn’t won and covered consecutive Thanksgiving games since 2006–09 with Tony Romo.
➤ Patrick Mahomes has started four career road games played before Sunday — Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday kickoffs — and he is 4-0 SU/ATS, covering by 12.6 PPG and scoring 29+ points in all four.
Andy Reid has coached 11 Thursday games over the last decade, all with Kansas City. The Chiefs are 7-4 ATS, but in the four non-covers, KC won by 3 once and lost by exactly 1 point in the other three.
➤ The over has been the play for the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The over has cashed five straight — Dallas’ first 5+ game over streak on Thanksgiving since 1980.
The over is 11-4 in the past 15 Cowboys Thanksgiving games since 2010.
➤ The Chiefs franchise has played six road games against the Cowboys; they are 1-5 SU, losing five straight. Their last win came in 1975, when they beat Tom Landry and Roger Staubach as 7.5-point underdogs.
➤ The Cowboys are 7-4 against the third-quarter spread this season.
They went 6-11 ATS in the third quarter last year, and since the start of 2023, Dallas is just 12-23 ATS in the third quarter.
➤ Since the start of 2022, Dak has started five home games in Dallas in an early-week spot (before Sunday). The Cowboys are 5-0 SU in those games, winning by 11.2 PPG.
➤ Both the Chiefs–Cowboys and Bengals–Ravens games on Thanksgiving will likely close at 50 or higher — just the second time we’ve had 2+ totals of 50+ on Thanksgiving. The last time was 2016, when one went over and one went under.
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➤ Ravens and Bengals play the first of two meetings in a three-week span this week.
The Ravens have beaten the Bengals in four straight games outright, and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six matchups vs. Cincinnati.
➤ Joe Burrow has faced Lamar Jackson seven times in their careers. Jackson holds the SU advantage 6-1 and is 4-3 ATS vs. Burrow.
Since the start of 2022, Burrow is just 6-11 ATS vs. the AFC North, failing to cover by 3.4 PPG.
Lamar has faced the Bengals 11 times; he is 4-0 ATS on the road but just 2-5 ATS at home.
➤ As an underdog, Joe Burrow is 19-11 ATS as a starter in his career. He has lost five straight outright as an underdog, with his last win coming in October 2023.
When Burrow closes as an underdog of 3 points or more, he is 9-10-1 SU and 17-3 ATS, covering the spread by 5.6 PPG.
➤ What a turnaround. The Ravens have won five in a row after losing four straight and starting the season 1-5 SU through six games.
Since 1990, teams on a 5+ game SU win streak with a win percentage still below 55% after that streak are just 7-12 SU and 6-12-1 ATS.
➤ Favorites in night games on Thanksgiving are 14-4 ATS since the holiday adopted the three-game format in 2006.
➤ Unders in Thanksgiving night games are 12-6 since 2006, staying under the total by 4 PPG. When the total is 44 or higher, they are 7-2 to the under in that span.
This year's total is around 52, the second-highest in Thanksgiving night game history.
Highest O/U in Thanksgiving Night Game
- 61 – Falcons/Saints (2018, 48)
- 51.5 – Bengals/Ravens (2025)
- 50 – Steelers/Colts (2016, 35)
➤ Favorites of over 10 points are 9-0 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005 and 11-0 ATS in the Wild Card era (since 1990). Teams favored by 10+ are 10-2 ATS since 2005 and 15-4 ATS since 1980.
➤ In the Wild Card era (since 1990), favorites of 7+ points on Thanksgiving are 30-5 SU and 25-10 ATS.
➤ In Burrow’s career, he’s 45-32-1 (58%) against the second-half spread. He is 11-18 2H ATS since the start of 2023 after going 30-8-1 2H ATS between 2021–22.
He is 34-17-1 2H ATS vs. non-AFC North opponents, but only 11-15 2H ATS vs. the AFC North, losing five straight 2H ATS, and going 1-9 2H ATS in his last ten divisional starts.
➤ Lamar has started five career home games during the regular season in early-week spots (any game before Sunday). The Ravens are 5-0 SU in those games, winning by 14 PPG.
➤ Good teams deal with short rest well. The Ravens were big favorites vs. the Jets last week.
Teams coming off being a favorite of 6+ points who play the following Thursday cover 55.3% of the time over the last 20 years. As a favorite of more than a touchdown, that rises to 56.5% ATS. As a double-digit favorite in their previous game, they are 22-14-1 ATS (61%) — a trend that also applies to the Lions this week.
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➤ This is the third-ever Black Friday game in the NFL.
- Last year, the Chiefs played the Raiders at home in KC — Kansas City won 19-17 as 13.5-point favorites, barely surviving on a botched snap.
- In the first year, the Jets hosted the Dolphins and lost 34-13 as 9.5-point underdogs. The Jets lost all four quarters vs. Miami and were dominated throughout.
➤ The Eagles are coming off a terrible loss to the Cowboys, where they led 21-0 and ended up losing 24-21, surrendering 24 unanswered points.
Philly had won 91 consecutive games when leading by 21+ points, with their last loss coming in 1999. Teams that blow a 7+ point lead entering the fourth quarter on the road are actually 37-25 SU and 36-25-2 ATS in their next game since 2017.
➤ The bounce-back spot hasn’t been great for Nick Sirianni’s Eagles. When Philly is coming off a loss under Sirianni, they are 8-14 ATS in their next game.
Least Profitable Coaches ATS Coming Off a SU Loss (since 2021, of 70 coaches):
70. Brian Callahan: 3-14 ATS
69. Matt Rhule: 3-11 ATS
68. Ron Rivera: 11-17-2 ATS
67. Nick Sirianni: 8-14 ATS
➤ The Bears have always had issues covering in primetime games, especially early-week spots.
In games before Sunday, the Bears are 12-24-1 ATS dating back to 1990. The one positive sign: Caleb Williams is 2-0 ATS in that spot, with the rest of Bears QBs going 10-24-1 ATS.
With the Bears, Caleb Williams has started five career games on short rest, going 1-4 SU — winning his last start against the Saints in Week 7.
➤ Forget the playoff game, the Eagles have beaten the Bears in six straight meetings dating back to 2013. Their last three matchups, including that gut-wrenching playoff loss, have all been decided by one possession (8 points or fewer).
➤ The Eagles were shut out in the second half last week, going up 21-0 and coming away with nothing on six second-half drives.
The ultimate bounce-back spot: Over the last five years, teams shut out in the second half as betting favorites in that game are 38-29 SU and 40-27-1 ATS (60%) in their next game. These teams are 13-5 ATS over the last two seasons.
➤ The Bears have been extremely turnover-friendly this year. They are +16 through 11 games, the best mark in the NFL. Chicago has 16 interceptions, also the most in the league.
The last teams with 16+ INTs and a +16 turnover margin through 11 games were the 2019 Patriots and 2015 Panthers.
➤ The most important metric for the Bears week-to-week is pass protection and sacks on Caleb Williams.
When Caleb is sacked two times or fewer, the Bears are 10-5 SU.
When he’s sacked three or more times, they are 3-10 SU over the last two seasons.
➤ Since the start of last season, teams coming off a divisional game are 135-130-5 ATS, roughly 50%. The impressive part: the Eagles are 10-0 ATS in this spot, covering by 10.5 PPG.
➤ Lane Johnson is vital to the Eagles offense. Without him vs. the Cowboys, the Eagles had just 63 rushing yards on 18 attempts. The 63 yards is the 5th-lowest in 82 games with 18+ attempts under Sirianni.
Over the last decade:
- Philly is 96-41-1 SU when Lane starts
- Philly is 12-24 SU when he doesn’t
Since 2013 (including playoffs):
- Eagles are 120-62-1 SU when Lane plays
- Eagles are 15-25 SU when he doesn’t
➤ This is a moment Bears fans haven’t felt in a long time. They’ve won 8 of their last 9 games — just the third time since making the Super Bowl in 2006:
- 2018–19 playoff game vs. Eagles (lost 16-15)
- The week before that playoff game
- This current stretch
This season, Chicago is 5-3 SU when the opponent leads by 4+ points at any point. Their last above-.500 season in that spot was 2010. Between 2016–24, Chicago went 25-86 SU (23%) in that scenario.
➤ The Bears have won four straight games outright, each by 5 points or fewer. Since 2010, only two other teams have won four straight by 5 or fewer — the 2021 Raiders and 2011 Broncos — and both teams lost outright and ATS as underdogs in their next game.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Popular favorites with low totals.
Matches: KC
System: Some wind and cold temperatures are expected for Thursday night in Baltimore and on Friday in Philadelphia.
Matches: Check current lines.
System: Winning streak. Off big win. Good record. Go the other way.
Matches: GB
System: Off an upset win. Listed as an underdog again, now on short rest — a tough spot.
Matches: DAL
System: Beware of rising totals — this system suggests focusing on the closing number later in the week.
Matches: KC/DAL, CIN/BAL
