Our NFL Week 14 Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings (Luck Difference).
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 12128-75-6 (62.7%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.
In Week 13, the unlucky teams meeting our criteria went 1-1 ATS. That moves the unlucky team in luck-based matchups to a 15-14-1 (51.7%) ATS record on the season.
The two Luck Totals in Week 13 were both Luck Unders that stayed under the closing total. That moves Luck Unders to 10-9-0 on the season, while Luck Overs remain a perfect 4-0-0. Combined, Luck Totals are 14-9-0 (60.9%) this season.
As a reminder, here are the criteria for Luck Totals:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Sides and totals meeting any Luck Ranking criteria are 29-23-1 (55.7%) on the season.
For NFL Week 14, there is one Luck Matchup and two Luck Unders. Let's take a look.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 14 Discussion
As a reminder, we've hit an inflection point in the season where three things happen in the Luck Rankings.
First, the Luck Gap% threshold reduces from 50% to 30%, which should make sense. As time goes along, luck tends to regress to the mean, so it's harder to have big luck-gap games.
At the same time, with more data, we have more evidence that teams have been lucky, so we'd still expect the narrowing threshold to provide value as evidence piles up.
Second, and maybe most importantly, Luck Matchups suddenly hit some major trends with this change.
Unlucky teams in games meeting the 30% threshold criteria from Week 13 to the second-to-last week of the regular season (we always ignore the last week due to motivation reasons) are an astonishing 26-4-1 (85.5%) ATS since 2018. That includes:
- 12-0-1 ATS since 2022, the season I first started using my Luck Rankings formula
- 16-1-0 ATS since 2018 if the unlucky team is also on the road
Finally, the third major point of note is that the threshold for a Luck Over reduces from a Luck Total of +10 to +5. Luck Overs are much more rare since games tend to get bet up, which requires more stringent thresholds than Luck Unders.
But as a result, Luck Overs after Week 11 are 29-18-1 (61.5%) since 2018. Add that to the early season Luck Over criteria (Luck Total above +10 after Week 3), which is 17-5-0 (77.3%) to the over, and we have Luck Overs at a 46-23-1 (66.4%) record.
This is an exciting time of year for the Luck Rankings, and hopefully this season ends on another strong note!
