We’re onto my NFL picks and predictions after a wacky start to the year.
It has been the year of the dog so far. Underdogs of 5.5 or more points are now 9-1 against the spread (ATS) this season with five outright wins, including the Buccaneers and Raiders in Week 2 as 'dogs of more than a touchdown.
Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold are posting MVP-level numbers for 2-0 teams. Preseason Super Bowl contenders Ravens and Bengals are reeling at 0-2. It all sets up for a fascinating Week 3 and beyond
I went 3-3 in Week 2, bringing me to a 6-7 record on picks in this column for -1.75 units. Let’s get that turned around with some more ugly 'dogs for my Week 3 picks.
Thursday Night Football
Patriots vs. Jets
The Patriots have a clear path to keeping this game close.
Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt has been dialing up a very conservative offense, and it’s been working. New England has the sixth-highest early down rush play rate, and it has racked up 185 and 170 rushing yards in its first two games of the season. The Jets rank 26th in early down rushing success rate allowed and have struggled to generate a push up front.
Now, edge rusher Jermaine Johnson is out for the year with a torn Achilles, linebacker C.J. Mosley is also questionable for this game and cornerback D.J. Reed missed Week 2. Jacoby Brissett is far from prolific, but he has one turnover-worthy play through two weeks and ranks 17th in EPA+CPOE. He’s been very serviceable.
Unfortunately, the Patriots lost linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley for the season, which is significant when facing Breece Hall. However, this Jets offense isn’t prolific. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t had a breakout game yet, and his 6.8-yard aDOT ranks just 22nd in the NFL. He ranks lower than Brissett in EPA+CPOE through two weeks and has been under 200 passing yards in both games.
Neither team is in a particularly great spot here. The Jets are playing on a short week for the second straight week, while the Patriots are playing on a short week after overtime on Sunday.
According to Action Network's Evan Abrams, teams that played an overtime game and then play on three days or fewer of rest against teams that didn’t play in overtime the week prior are 6-18 and 3-21 ATS (12.5%). That’s likely enough for me to stay off this game, but I’d be enticed by a +7 on the Patriots.
Verdict: Lean Patriots +7 or Better
Pass
Eagles vs. Saints
On Monday morning, the Eagles were set as a 2-point favorite in this game. As of Tuesday afternoon, the spread has ballooned to Saints -2.5, and it’s even touching -3 at some books. It’s easy to see why.
Through two weeks, the Saints have the best offense and second-best defense in the NFL by EPA per play.
It’s fair to wonder what this spread would have been had Saquon Barkley simply caught the wide open pass on third-and-3 to end the game against the Falcons on Monday night. Instead, you have the Eagles traveling on a short week against a red-hot opponent that will give its defense everything it can handle.
Before the season, I expected the Saints to have one of the league’s worst offensive lines and the Eagles to have a lights-out pass rush. Through two weeks, Philadelphia ranks 29th in pressure rate and New Orleans ranks ninth in pass-block win rate. Derek Carr has outpaced Jalen Hurts in every meaningful quarterback metric, and Klint Kubiak’s system is thriving while Kellen Moore is still working out the kinks.
I’m not fully throwing out my priors on these teams, but I also can’t ignore what I’m seeing on the field. There will have to be a sell-high point on the Saints at some point soon, but I’m sitting this one out.
Verdict: Pass
Bears vs. Colts
The Bears’ offensive line was quietly a strength for the team last year, ranking fifth in pass-block win rate, but regression has hit hard and the group has fallen to 30th. Caleb Williams has been under constant duress, and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron hasn’t given him enough solutions.
Luckily, the Colts rank just 26th in pass-rush win rate, and top defensive lineman DeForest Buckner just landed on injured reserve. Williams should get some reprieve this week against an Indianapolis defense ranked 29th in EPA against the pass through two weeks. We could see Williams’ best game as a pro, especially if Keenan Allen returns.
Meanwhile, Anthony Richardson has left a lot to be desired so far. The physical talent is obvious, but the down-to-down consistency hasn’t been there and he leads the NFL with a 7.8% turnover-worthy play rate, per PFF. The Bears’ secondary has looked awesome, and Chicago ranks sixth against the pass by EPA.
This is a high-variance game between two green quarterbacks struggling to find their footing in the NFL. The Bears have the better defense here, but I give the Colts a significant coaching edge with Shane Steichen over Matt Eberflus. This is an easy pass for me from a betting standpoint.
Verdict: Pass
Dolphins vs. Seahawks
According to Evan Abrams, backup quarterbacks have gone 38-30-2 ATS (55%) since 2021 when making their first start for their team that season. That same trend led me to back the Packers in Malik Willis’ team debut last week, but it looks like the market is now taking notice as this spread has been steamed from +6.5 to +4.5.
The Dolphins get a nice extended break here after playing on Thursday Night Football last week, and they have a decent advantage in Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings, ranking 21st while the Seahawks rank fourth after two straight one-score wins.
Still, Miami has significant flaws, especially on the offensive line. That’s bad news for an inexperienced Skylar Thompson against a potent Mike Macdonald defense in hostile territory. Keep an eye on the practice reports to see if Kenneth Walker is active – he missed last week, and he’s a massive piece in the ascending Seattle offense.
Verdict: Pass
Ravens vs. Cowboys
It’s only Week 3, but this game carries enormous playoff implications for two preseason Super Bowl favorites. The Ravens are coming off a disastrous loss to the Raiders, against whom they had a 94.5% postgame win expectancy. Baltimore ranks 27th in Action Network's Luck Rankings after an Isaiah Likely toenail and a Justin Tucker missed field goal sent them to 0-2.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, are coming off an embarrassing blowout home loss to the Saints. New Orleans is an ascending team, but the supposed best defense in football can’t be giving up 44 points at home to anyone — much less Derek Carr. Most surprising to me is that the Cowboys’ pass rush hasn’t shown up this season, as they rank just 21st in pass-rush win rate according to ESPN.
Both teams lost defensive coordinators who are now head coaches in Mike Macdonald (Seahawks) and Dan Quinn (Commanders). The defenses have shown warts as they get accustomed to new play-calling, and I believe we’ll see both improve in the coming weeks.
One aspect of this game that bears monitoring is whether or not the Cowboys even attempt to run the ball. They arguably have the worst backfield in the NFL this year, and the Ravens rank second in defensive adjusted line yards. Dallas is better off with Dak Prescott racking up the passing attempts on early downs this week.
This should be a fascinating game between two playoff teams from last season that are desperately looking to bounce back. I don’t see much value from a betting standpoint, though, as my numbers make this a pick‘em.
Verdict: Pass
49ers vs. Rams
In the interest of full transparency, I show quite a bit of value on the Rams here. However, I’m not sure my model can properly account for the unbelievable injury attrition in Los Angeles, especially on the offensive line. The Rams rank dead last with a 29.2 PFF pass-blocking grade this season. For context, the 31st-ranked team has a 53.3 grade.
The return of left tackle Alaric Jackson from suspension helps, but Matthew Stafford enters this game with a makeshift offensive line and no Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua. Meanwhile, three projected starting defensive backs are on the injured reserve, and it showed last week as Kyler Murray shredded the Rams’ secondary.
The 49ers are dealing with injury woes of their own, however, as Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel will miss the next few weeks at least. Still, San Francisco’s offensive line is in much better shape, and Jordan Mason could have another huge game against a defensive line ranked 28th in adjusted line yards.
The Rams would be the side here, if any, but I don’t have a strong enough understanding of the injury fallout to recommend a bet this early in the week.
Verdict: Pass
Lions vs. Cardinals
The Lions were on the wrong side of some brutal red-zone luck last week, finishing with just one touchdown on seven trips past the 20. That’s bound to positively regress, and the odds certainly imply it will happen this week against a Cardinals defense that still has a ton to prove. It will require a better game from Jared Goff, though – he ranks just 23rd in passing success rate this year.
Meanwhile, Kyler Murray is coming off the highest-graded game of his career, according to PFF. He took advantage of a banged-up Rams’ defense, to be sure, but he finished with a whopping six big-time throws and connected with rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. for 130 yards and two touchdowns.
I’m still not sold on this Arizona defense that ranked bottom two in defensive EPA per play and success rate last season, but Detroit’s new-look secondary hasn’t fully coalesced yet, and new starting cornerbacks Carlton Davis, Terrion Arnold, and Amik Robertson all grade out below-average on PFF.
The Lions should lean on their rushing attack and loaded offensive line against a Cardinals’ defensive line that isn’t fully up to the task. If Murray is playing like he did on Sunday, though, he’ll keep Arizona in this game until the end.
I lean toward the Lions picking up a get-right win here, but this feels like a better game to bet live as a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair.
Verdict: Pass
Chiefs vs. Falcons
The Falcons pulled off a miracle comeback win on Monday night, and it felt like they had to have it. The Saints and Buccaneers have both started the season 2-0, and dropping to 0-2 would have been a gut punch after the amount of preseason hype that surrounded Atlanta. Kirk Cousins looked better overall, but he was given far too much time to sit back in the pocket – the Eagles only blitzed him on 29% of dropbacks.
Expect that blitz rate to ratchet up this week with Steve Spagnuolo’s defense making Cousins uncomfortable behind an offensive line that ranks 28th in pass-blocking through two weeks, per PFF. In particular, the Falcons’ struggles with pass protection on the interior could show up again this week against Chris Jones.
The Chiefs unfortunately lost Isiah Pacheco for the foreseeable future, but I expect Patrick Mahomes’ pass rate on early downs to increase, which shouldn’t make the offense any less efficient. Rashee Rice has been incredible to start the season, ranking fifth with 3.49 yards per route run, and this could be another huge game for the second-year wide receiver.
Kansas City got out of dodge with close wins against the Ravens and Bengals, and could easily be 0-2 right now. They rank first in the luck ratings entering Week 3. Still, if this somehow touches 3, I’ll be on the Chiefs on principle. I make this number closer to Kansas City -5, and Mahomes is 24-8-1 ATS (75%) as an underdog or favorite of 3 points or less in his career.
Verdict: Pass; Bet Chiefs -3 or Better
Week 3 Leans
Texans vs. Vikings
Kevin O’Connell continues to prove himself as one of the most underrated coaches in the NFL, taking the Vikings to 2-0. Sam Darnold has far exceeded any reasonable expectations, ranking third in PFF passing grade and fifth in EPA+CPOE. Brian Flores’ defense has played with its hair on fire, ranking second in DVOA and fourth in EPA.
I’m not sure if that defensive success can carry over here, however. Minnesota ranks second in blitz rate at 35.5%, in typical Flores fashion, but C.J. Stroud has thrived against the blitz this year. He’s completed 17-of-20 passes for 166 yards (8.3 YPA) and a touchdown, leading the league in PFF passing grade against the blitz.
The Texans' defensive metrics are surely inflated after essentially facing two rookie quarterbacks — Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams — but I’ve been impressed with this defense. The edge-rushing tandem of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. is nasty, and the young cornerback trio of Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter and Jalen Pitre is quickly on the rise.
The spread for this game was Houston -4 on the lookahead, and that’s about what I’d price it at, even after the Vikings upset the 49ers. I’m not rushing to bet this game, as I want to see how the market responds throughout the week, but I’ll likely end up on Houston here in some fashion.
Verdict: Lean Texans -2.5
Giants vs. Browns
After a dreadful Week 1, Deshaun Watson was serviceable in Week 2, but this offense is still in rough shape. Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills remain out and James Hudson ranks 65th out of 71 qualified tackles in PFF’s pass-blocking grades. The Browns offense clearly misses Nick Chubb, while Amari Cooper seems to have lost a step. Deshaun Watson ranks 31st in passing success rate, ahead of only Bo Nix.
However, the Giants are seemingly inventing new ways to lose. Kicker Graham Gano pulled his hamstring trying to chase down a returner on the opening kickoff on Sunday, leaving the team without a kicker in a 21-18 loss. It's a cruel and unusual punishment for Giants fans. Daniel Jones looked better in a cleaner pocket and Malik Nabers was brilliant, but a road test against Jim Schwartz’s defense won’t be fun.
If you can stomach it, this will count as a luck rankings game this week, and it’s part of why we’ve seen sharp action coming in on the Giants, driving the spread down from +6.5 to +6 at some books. I also don’t mind the under, given the putrid state of both of offenses.
Verdict: Lean Giants +6.5 and Under 38.5 Points
Chargers vs. Steelers
The total for this game has steamed down aggressively. It was available at 42.5 over the summer, 39.5 before the Week 2 games, 37.5 on Sunday evening, and now it’s down to 35.5. The value has been zapped at this point on the total, but I am intrigued by the Chargers as an underdog in this spot.
I’d normally be cautious backing a West Coast team on the East Coast, but Jim Harbaugh smartly kept the team in Eastern Standard Time after their win over the Panthers last week. Steelers faithful will be out in droves after the their team started the season 2-0 on the road, but Pittsburgh is becoming overvalued in the market after its hot start.
The Steelers won both of their games by one possession. Their opponent had a better offensive success rate in both games, and they rank just 29th in offensive success rate this season. Arthur Smith and Justin Fields provide a different cover, but it’s the same book as last year.
The Chargers lead the NFL in defensive success rate by a huge margin, and while that’s certainly Panthers-influenced, there’s no question that defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has this unit playing far more cohesively.
I’d make the spread for this game much closer to a pick’em, and I have the Chargers power rated as a better team than the Steelers. If this somehow hits 3, I’ll be all over Los Angeles, but at the current spread of -2, I love the Chargers as a teaser piece.
Verdict: Lean Chargers +2; Use as Teaser Piece Up to +8
Commanders vs. Bengals
If the Bengals’ offense doesn’t bounce back massively in this game, I’ll start to sound the alarms. It’s been a middling start for Joe Burrow, who ranks just 13th in EPA+CPOE as he shakes off the rust and learns to play through his wrist ailment. However, the Commanders’ defense cures all as they rank last in pass defense DVOA, EPA and success rate by a significant margin.
Cincinnati’s defense has some holes, and Washington can lean on a heavy rush attack with Brian Robinson as the Bengals rank 27th in adjusted defensive line yards. Jayden Daniels also ranks sixth in adjusted EPA per play, and his rushing ability provides another path to offense for this young team.
However, I don’t see a consistent path to stops for Washington. I’ll be targeting Ja’Marr Chase props in this game after Chris Godwin (8-83-1), Mike Evans (5-61-2) and Malik Nabers (10-127-1) torched the Commanders through the first two weeks. I also love Cincinnati as a teaser piece — I paired them with the Chargers, who I teased up to +8.
Verdict: Lean Bengals -7.5; Use Bengals -1.5 in a Teaser with Chargers +8
NFL Week 3 Picks
Broncos vs. Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are coming off a 20-16 road win over the Lions, exacting revenge from their playoff loss earlier this year, but the underlying metrics suggest they got incredibly lucky.
The Bucs got outgained by 12 first downs and 247 yards, but the Lions couldn’t finish in the red zone, scoring a touchdown on just one of seven trips. According to predictive analyst Nick Giffen, the projected final score for that game was 33.7 for Detroit to 20.3 for Tampa, and the post-game win expectancy for the Lions was 96%.
I expect a letdown for the Buccaneers in a tough situational spot with a potential look-ahead to a home game against the Eagles next week. Tampa Bay is still dealing with significant injuries as defensive linemen Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey are expected to be out this week and All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. remains sidelined.
Bo Nix hasn't been good to start this season by any means, but I have Seattle and Pittsburgh rated as top-10 defenses. Tampa is not in the same tier, especially with its injury concerns, and Denver could get the ball moving more this week as Nix continues to gain comfort at the NFL level.
The Buccaneers’ run game is severely lacking. They rank 27th in early down rushing success rate, while the Broncos are seventh defensively. Rachaad White looked awful again last week, and without a consistent rushing threat, this offense is one-dimensional.
Baker Mayfield has looked strong in the Liam Coen offense, ranking second in the NFL with 9.7 YPA, but the Lions and Commanders ranked bottom eight in pass defense success rate last year. Patrick Surtain II will likely shadow Mike Evans, while Ja’Quan McMillian and Riley Moss have quietly impressed so far this year.
Nick Giffen’s Luck Rankings have the Bucs ranked as the second-luckiest team and the Broncos as the least lucky. That makes this a rare 30+ luck differential game. Unlucky teams in games with a luck difference of 30+ points are 7-1-1 (83.3%), according to Giffen.
Ultimately, this is a sleepy spot for the Bucs and I like the Broncos to keep this one close. Sean Payton is 22-10 ATS (69%) on a 2+ game losing streak and 53-36-2 ATS (59%) as an underdog in his career. Meanwhile, Mayfield is 15-26-1 ATS (37%) as a favorite since entering the league. Take the points with Denver.
Verdict: Broncos +7
Packers vs. Titans
Last week, we bet on Malik Willis catching 3.5 points at home against a decimated Colts defense. Matt LaFleur did an excellent job of making his life easy with an 80% first-read rate and a 5.5-yard aDOT. He only attempted 14 passes as the Packers ran the ball a whopping 53 times, one shy of the most attempts in a game this past decade.
That same strategy won’t work this week. Tennessee’s defense has been impressive so far, ranking ninth in overall DVOA, and Green Bay won’t get nearly the same push up front as the Titans rank fourth in defensive adjusted line yards compared to the Colts at 25th. The Titans will load the box and dare Willis to beat corners L’Jarius Sneed, Chidobe Awuzie and Roger McCreary one-on-one.
Will Levis has been the most meme-worthy quarterback through two weeks, literally handing the opposing team the ball in painful fashion in both games. However, he’s been surprisingly solid on a down-to-down basis, ranking 16th in EPA+CPOE, about the league average. Tennessee should also have success running the ball against Green Bay’s 24th-ranked run defense by DVOA.
The Titans have lost 24-17 in both games and could just as easily be 2-0. I love this spot for them to get in the win column.
Verdict: Bet Titans -2.5 (-120 or better)
Panthers vs. Raiders
Carolina pulled the plug on Bryce Young after just two weeks, and it’s hard to fault them for doing so. The team’s play-calling and skill position talent has improved, and the offensive line ranks fifth in pass-blocking, per PFF. However, none of it has mattered as Young’s confidence looks completely destroyed.
His off-target throw rate of 25% ranks second in the NFL, and his 31.8 PFF passing grade is by far the worst in the league. The film is somehow worse than last year despite the situation improving, and I don’t think the Panthers’ brass could continue selling its players on a quarterback who clearly can't win at this level.
I expect better returns for this offense with Andy Dalton under center as a seasoned veteran who ranked sixth in PFF passing grades in 2022, the last time we saw him as a full-time starter. That can start this week against a Raiders defense that ranks 31st in early down passing success rate allowed.
Antonio Pierce continues to preach a run-first mentality, but the Raiders rank last in early down rushing EPA and success rate. That makes them a dangerous team to back as a favorite, as they will struggle to salt away leads, leaving the back door open.
The Raiders are coming off a massive come-from-behind win over the Ravens in a game in which Baltimore had a post-game win expectancy of 94.5%. That makes this a prime letdown spot against a 0-2 Panthers team desperate to bounce back. Take the points with Carolina and expect the offense to look far more functional with Dalton under center.
Verdict: Bet Panthers +5.5
Jaguars vs. Bills
The Jaguars are incredibly unlucky to be 0-2. They were a Travis Etienne goal-line fumble away from beating the Dolphins in Week 1. Last week, they averaged 5.9 yards per play compared to 4.6 for the Browns, but Cleveland went 3-for-3 on fourth downs, and Jacksonville went 1-for-4 for touchdowns in the red zone.
The Bills are coming off a decisive 31-10 win over the Dolphins, but Miami had seven more first downs, over 100 more yards and held the ball for over 36 minutes of game time. Buffalo benefitted from a pick-six and multiple short fields off turnovers. The Dolphins also turned the ball over on downs twice inside the red zone.
Jacksonville has lost seven of eight games dating back to last season and five of those seven losses have come by one score. With mounting pressure, Doug Pederson’s back is against the wall, and I’m looking to buy low on Monday Night Football.
I’ve been impressed by the early returns from defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. The Jaguars have the run defense to battle the Bills. Through two games, Jacksonville ranks seventh in defensive adjusted line yards. The loss of cornerback Tyson Campbell is significant, but the Bills don’t have an overpowering X-receiver to take advantage.
Meanwhile, Buffalo’s defense is missing a handful of key players, including linebacker Matt Milano, his replacement Terrel Bernard and All-Pro nickel corner Taron Johnson. Those absences should help open up the middle of the field for Jacksonville, while Trevor Lawrence will test a remade Bills safety room deep — he leads the NFL in deep throw rate at 21.6% per Fantasy Points Data.
This also fits the luck rankings parameters as the Bills are the sixth-luckiest team and the Jaguars are the 29th-luckiest team thus far.
I grabbed the Jaguars at +6, and it’s since moved down to +5.5 across the board. Six is a key number in NFL spreads, so I recommend setting a Pro alert in the Action app to get notified when that number reappears.
Verdict: Bet Jaguars +6 (-115 or better)
