HomeRight ArrowNFL

NFL Week 7 Survivor & Pick’em Advice: Pick the Chalk or Not?

NFL Week 7 Survivor & Pick’em Advice: Pick the Chalk or Not? article feature image
4 min read
Credit:

Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images. Pictured: Stefon Diggs.

Week 6 gave NFL Survivor players a breather compared to the prior carnage, but public sentiment is tightening around a few clear options. Whether you’re protecting equity in a shrinking pool or hunting leverage in larger formats, NFL Week 7 offers a classic chalk-versus-pivot decision.

As always, we’ll also have a section below to check our latest value plays for NFL Game Winner and Spread Pools to see where the biggest edges are developing.

Your NFL Survivor & Pick’em Pool Cheat Sheet

PoolGenius analyzes win odds, public pick trends, and future value for every team each week.

Our tools show which picks offer the best combination of safety and upside so you can make smarter, higher-expected-value decisions in your Survivor, Pick’em, Spread, or Confidence pools.

NFL Survivor Picks Week 7: Chiefs or Look Elsewhere?

The Chiefs hold the largest spread of the week (-12) and the highest win odds (83%). They will attract heavy interest as a double-digit home favorite, especially coming off a convincing win and with WR Rashee Rice returning.

For holiday slates (e.g., Circa Survivor), remember the Chiefs also project as favorites on both Thanksgiving and Christmas. Even with that in mind, this may end up as one of their highest win odds spots of the season, with Week 16 at Tennessee in the same neighborhood.

In smaller pools, taking the high advancement odds makes sense; in larger or buyback pools, the popularity tax is real and may cap your relative edge.

Next in Line: New England Patriots

New England is a 7-point road favorite against a Titans team coming off a rough loss and a coaching change. The Patriots have won three straight and are trending up; we have them around 74% win odds this week.

New England does carry some future value: Week 8 vs. Cleveland (~71% win odds), Week 11 vs. Jets (~75%), and Week 18 vs. Miami (~71%), so consider game theory if you’re saving them.

If you’re fading the Chiefs chalk, New England is a logical pivot.

Other Potential NFL Survivor Picks for Week 7

If you’re fading the Chiefs/Patriots chalk, these lower-usage favorites offer leverage without completely punting safety.

Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints: Fresh off a MNF upset, Chicago is -5 at home in one of its better use weeks, though not the only one (Week 10 vs. NYG, Week 15 vs. CLE; even Week 9 at CIN if Burrow sits). Strong leverage if your pool clusters on Kansas City/New England.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (TNF): Short week, -5.5 favorites (~69% win odds) in a favorable spot. Alternatives exist (Week 11 vs. CIN pending Burrow; Week 15 vs. MIA), but this is a viable press in strike/buyback formats or larger tournaments as part of a portfolio approach.

Denver Broncos vs. New York Giants: Denver is -6.5 at home (~72% win odds) with usage suppressed by prior weeks. For context, Denver returns from London; New York has extra rest coming off a Thursday win vs. Philadelphia. Popularity should stay muted; calling for solid medium/large-pool leverage.

NFL Pick’em Advice Week 7: Value Favorites & More

We always outline weekly NFL pool picks for Game Winner and Spread Pools using the PoolGenius Data Grid, which compares win odds with public pick popularity to identify value.

Here’s a sample of what stands out this week:

Minnesota Vikings (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

Spread: +2 | Win Odds: 51.2% | Pick Popularity: 24.4%

Minnesota comes off a bye to host an Eagles team reeling from two straight losses.

Our PoolGenius models make this close to a coin flip (slightly Vikings), yet only about one-quarter of entries are picking Minnesota. That’s meaningful leverage in game-winner pools.

Atlanta Falcons (at San Francisco 49ers)

Spread: +3 | Win Odds: 45.5% | Pick Popularity: 22.7%

Atlanta rides momentum from a strong Monday night win and now visits a banged-up 49ers squad.

Keep an eye on key San Francisco injuries (Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, George Kittle). If public interest stays under 25% while the line holds near a field goal, the Falcons remain a viable value side for both Game Winner and Spread pools.

Cleveland Browns (vs. Miami Dolphins)

Spread: -2.5 | Win Odds: 58% | Pick Popularity: 50%

Not a massive gap, but there’s still some edge if the public keeps shying away from the Browns as a home favorite.

Track whether pick rates creep up toward their win odds; if they don’t, Cleveland stays in play for moderate-risk game winner pool entries.

Get Your NFL Survivor and Pick’em Edge

We just laid out our Week 7 NFL Survivor and Pick’em strategies using PoolGenius data to help you make smarter decisions. But lines, injuries, and public pick rates move all week, and the full tools tailor recommendations to your exact pool rules and format.

Hit the links below (free trial available) to get specific advice for your pool and/or dig deeper into the latest value shifts.

Author Profile
About the Author
PoolGeniusVerified Action Expert

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.