Increased strikeout rate this year is paired with an increase in his swinging-strike rate, and the sample is up to 11 starts. Buying in enough to see value in the over.

Red Sox's active roster has a 24.7% strikeout rate against lefties. Combined with Luzardo's numbers this year and his length, I'm showing value in the over.

I have Fried projected for just 3.96 strikeouts because of how good the Blue Jays have been at avoiding strikeouts this year. He has 3 and 2 strikeouts in his 2 previous starts against the Jays.