The Baltimore Orioles remain a half-game behind the Yankees for first place in the American League East, and after dropping two of three to the Mets, they have their work cut out for them with the Houston Astros coming to town on Thursday.
Baltimore's offense has fallen into a bit of a rut, but of greater concern is the fact that Corbin Burnes has slowed down after a torrid first four months of the season. Can the ace hurler get back on track against a surging Astros offense on Thursday, or will he continue his backslide?
Let's get into the best way to bet on Thursday's Astros-Orioles tilt.
Astros vs. Orioles Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-135 | 7.5 +100 / -120 | +1.5 -165 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+160 | 7.5 +100 / -120 | -1.5 +140 |
Astros vs. Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| Stat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 5-11 | W-L | 12-5 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.0 |
| 5.20/3.96 | ERA /xERA | 3.10/3.24 |
| 4.31/4.08 | FIP / xFIP | 3.59/3.55 |
| 1.45 | WHIP | 1.11 |
| 16.8% | K-BB% | 17% |
| 35.5% | GB% | 48.9% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 117 |
| 99 | Location+ | 103 |
Kenny Ducey’s Astros vs. Orioles Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Everyone Is Hitting
Just when you thought the Astros' run of dark magic had come to an end, Spencer Arrighetti appeared out of nowhere. The rookie, whose only carrying tool to the majors was his extension off the mound, had gigantic struggles in the minor leagues and began his big-league career in the ugliest of ways with a 5.58 ERA through the month of July. But he's found something in August, pitching to a 3.38 ERA in three starts.
The right-hander dazzled against the Red Sox and Rays after putting together a quality start against the Dodgers at the end of July. (He actually had his worst start in a month against the White Sox, of all teams, in his last game of that month). His Expected Batting Average has come in at .204 since the start of June, and with a whiff rate over 28% during that time, he'd maintained a very palatable 25% strikeout rate — that is, until August.
In three starts, Arrighetti has found a way to punch out over 40% of batters, which is a downright insane sight. His walk rate has continued to fall in each of the last two months as well, so it's fair to say strikeouts will be a deciding factor in his starts going forward. He continues to struggle with limiting hard-hit balls, but his xBA has been stable, and with his brutal 10.7% walk rate trending down, he might be on his way to becoming a solid arm for Houston.
Offensively, this team continues to amaze with a 127 wRC+ over the last two weeks to rank second in the league. I say that because the core of this team is aging and there's been quite a bit of fluctuation later in the order, but it seems just about everyone is hitting. Alex Bregman has an OPS near 1.500 in the past two weeks, while Yordan Alvarez has hit 3285 and Yainer Diaz has matched Bregman with five home runs. Nobody wants to see Houston at the moment.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: A Concerning Trend
The story offensively for Baltimore is a different one. Yes, the Orioles still sit 11th in wRC+ over the last two weeks, but as a team which has been either first or second in home run-to-fly ball ratio for the entire season, it's surely disappointing to see that number come down by over a percentage point to rank just 10th during this time.
The Orioles will continue to put the ball in the air and aim for the seats, but with significantly depressed Isolated Power, there's nowhere for them to really go. They continue to be below-average in taking walks and right around the league average in strikeout rate, and the most concerning trend of all would be that the production has slowed despite the fact that they've recorded a nearly-identical .253 batting average in the last two weeks to their .254 mark for the year.
Speaking of hits, Burnes allowed 10 his last time out against Boston and has watched his xBA rise to .264 this month after keeping it to .225 heading into August. He's remained level in terms of strikeouts and walks, but there's been an uptick in exit velocity this month with a big drop in ground balls, which has been a troubling marriage for the former Cy Young Award winner.
Astros vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Orioles are simply not playing the same kind of ball that the Astros are at the moment, and while I've generally avoided betting on Arrighetti, I think tonight's the night.
Baltimore's refusal to take walks should help the troubled rookie continue bringing his walk rate down. Facing a team that doesn't exactly avoid strikeouts all that well, the right-hander should be able to continue displaying more competence as we round into the latter part of the season.
I've long wondered why Arrighetti, who nearly pitched to an ERA of five runs down on the farm last season, was named the organization's best minor-league arm, but perhaps there's more to it than meets the eye. Maybe an organization like Houston actually knows what it's doing and saw something that the results and metrics did not.
Whatever the case, it's hard to deny that Arrighetti has been a different pitcher over his last four starts, which have seen him dominate three pretty solid offenses. Baltimore's in a bit of a funk at the dish right now, and Burnes has been an objective liability of late, as his batted ball numbers have taken a dive.
The Astros can surely hit for power, and Burnes has now allowed 10 homers in his last 10 starts, with two coming against the Red Sox last time out. It's possible neither pitcher completely flounders here, but we have to give the edge to the road underdogs.
Pick: Astros ML (+128)
Moneyline
Despite accounting for just 19% of the bets and 17% of the money, we've tracked some sharp action hitting the Astros in this one. With that, Houston has fallen down close to +130 as of this writing after opening up near +145 on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
Houston is a solid 17-8 to the run line as road underdogs this season, and while the Orioles are just 28-30 against the spread as home favorites, that mark does rank sixth in baseball. With that said, they're -0.8 runs to the spread on average in these spots, which sits right around the middle of the league.
Over/Under
Baltimore leads all teams with a 58.8% hit rate to the over this season, but after a ridiculous run of high-scoring games a month ago, it has not seen the under hit in six of its last eight.
Furthermore, the over is just 29-24-5 when the Orioles enter as favorites at home, while the most profitable split the Astros have had to the over has been when they've been road underdogs, going 13-12. For context, they're just 50-72-4 to the over all season.
The total took a trip up to 8.5 runs after opening at eight, but after a long stay, it's back down to eight runs with some sharp action heading towards the under.
