Atlanta will wrap up it's 10-game western road swing with an important three-game series at Angel Stadium. After taking three of four from the Giants, the Braves hold a two-game lead over New York for the final wild-card spot.
Here's an Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Angels prediction.
The Braves turn to rookie Spencer Schwellenbach in the series opener, who's been one of few pleasant surprises for Atlanta this season.
The Angels enter off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays. They'll turn to Jose Soriano on Friday, who's posted a 2.01 ERA since the All-Star break.
Braves vs. Angels Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-148 | 8 -112 / -108 | -1.5 +110 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+126 | 8 -112 / -108 | +1.5 -132 |
Braves vs Angels Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) | Stat | RHP Jose Soriano (LAA) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-5 | W-L | 6-7 |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 3.95/3.09 | ERA /xERA | 3.36/4.12 |
| 3.33/3.22 | FIP / xFIP | 3.82/3.82 |
| 1.06 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 22.6% | K-BB% | 11.1% |
| 42.7% | GB% | 59.4% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 106 | Location+ | 95 |
Braves vs Angels Preview
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Will ATL Make the Playoffs?
Not a lot of things have broken the Braves' way this season. Atlanta has suffered through a number of key injuries and is now on the cusp of a shocking playoff absence.
FanGraphs still offers the Braves a 76.1% chance of claiming a playoff spot, but whether or not they can make any noise without Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider remains to be seen.
Atlanta's offense has struggled pretty badly against right-handed pitching for a lengthy sample this season. It holds a 24th-ranked wRC+ against righties since July 1 and holds the second-highest strikeout rate (26.1%) in that span.
If you widen the sample by another month, Atlanta still ranks 23rd in wRC+ versus RHP.
Given the need for added offense, bringing back Jorge Soler made lots of sense, and he's been in strong form since returning, with a .578 slug rate since July 31.
Unfortunately, Soler is now also likely to miss a little time after straining his hamstring in yesterday's game. He's considered day-to-day ahead of this series.
Schwellenbach has pitched to an ERA of 2.54 over his last 39 innings, with an xFIP of 2.69. He's struck out 10.38 batters per nine in that span and has walked just 0.69 batters per nine.
Opposing batters have a chase rate of 35% versus Schwellenbach this season, which is the second-highest mark of any starter to throw 35 or more innings.
Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview: Few Bright Spots in Anaheim
One of the few teams that rank below Atlanta in wRC+ against RHP since July 1 is the Angels, who are scuffling through another lost season in which nothing seems to be breaking right.
Since July 1, the Angels rank 28th with a wRC+ of 82 versus right-handed pitching and have lost a little more offensive upside with Luis Rengifo injured.
Their bullpen has been one of few bright spots of late, as it holds an ERA of 2.21 over the last 10 games and an ERA of 2.88 over the last 30 days.
Soriano has also been one of few bright spots on the Angels' roster, as he's continued his strong campaign with an ERA of 3.13 over the last 37 1/3 innings.
He continues to generate a ton of ground balls with his hard sinker, which has likely helped him overachieve his xERA.
Braves vs Angels Prediction, Betting Analysis
Both of these starters are in excellent form entering this matchup in terms of runs allowed and have done so with solid underlying profiles.
Soriano is backed by an bullpen that's been in solid form of late and is in good shape after an off day yesterday. The Braves' offense still looks to be getting a little credit right now despite being one of the worst in baseball against right-handed pitching for a fairly large sample.
Schwellenbach has been dominant on the road thus far in his young career and gets a great matchup here versus a side that ranks 27th in OPS against right-handed pitching this season.
Considering the quality of these two starters and the form of each offense, a total of eight looks too high for this matchup.
At anything better than -120, I see value backing the under.
Pick: Under 8 (-110 at bet365 | Play to -120)
Moneyline
| Braves | Angels | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 64-57 | 52-69 |
| Home | 32-26 | 26-38 |
| Away | 32-31 | 26-31 |
| Favorite | 55-45 | 7-15 |
| Underdog | 9-12 | 45-51 |
Run Line
| Braves | Angels | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 51-70 | 69-52 |
| Home | 23-35 | 37-27 |
| Away | 28-35 | 32-25 |
| Favorite | 43-57 | 10-12 |
| Underdog | 8-13 | 58-38 |
Over/Under
| Braves | Angels | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 45-68-8 | 57-58-6 |
| Home | 20-35-3 | 30-31-3 |
| Away | 25-33-5 | 27-27-3 |
| Favorite | 37-56-7 | 9-12-1 |
| Underdog | 8-12-1 | 46-45-5 |
