Braves vs. Cardinals Odds, Pick
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-122 | 8.5 -122 / +100 | -1.5 +134 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+104 | 8.5 -122 / +100 | +1.5 -162 |
On Monday night, the Atlanta Braves will take on the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium to kick off a three-game series between two playoff hopefuls in the National League.
The Cardinals (39-37) are coming off of a three game sweep over San Francisco and are in the midst of a nine-game homes tand. They are 7-3 over their last 10 games, and hold onto a one-game lead for the second wild card spot.
Holding onto the first wild card spot is the Atlanta Braves (43-32), who have a 5.5 game lead in this department. They trail the Phillies by seven games in the division race, but have been inching closer as they own a record of 8-2 in their last 10 games.
The Braves are the favorites in tonight's matchup at -122 on the moneyline, with an over/under set at 8.5 runs (-122/+100). Read below for my Braves vs. Cardinals pick and prediction for Monday, June 24.
Atlanta Braves
Spencer Schwellenbach will get the start for Atlanta today. The organization’s No. 2 prospect, according to Fangraphs, made his debut last month and has had mixed results. Through four starts (21.2 IP), Schwellenbach has a 4.98 ERA and 19 strikeouts.
His 4.16 SIERA, 3.62 xERA and 3.98 FIP all suggest that Schwellenbach has pitched better than the results he has gotten over this small sample. After getting roughed up in his second start, he has now turned in two quality starts in a row, so things may be pointing up for him going forward.
In his short time in the big leagues, Schwellenbach has posted a Stuff+ of 97 and Location+ of 107, giving him a Pitching+ of 105. So while his stuff has been a bit below average, he has made up for it with good location metrics. This has shown as he has just a 7.5% walk rate and only a 1.6% barrel rate allowed to this point. His average exit velocity allowed is above average as well.
Schwellenbach has a 27.2% whiff rate but just a 20.4% K-rate so while his Stuff+ numbers aren’t fantastic, I think there is a chance that we could see a slight uptick in strikeouts with his whiff numbers and a strong slider.
The Braves have hit the ball harder than anyone on average this season, ranking first in average exit velocity. They are 4th in barrel rate and 2nd in hard hit rate. Despite this, they are still only 14th in wRC+ and 13th in wOBA.
Because of this quality of contact, Atlanta ranks seventh in xwOBA and third in xwOBACON. Going forward, we should see better results from this offense as the likes of Austin Riley and Matt Olson start to heat up.
St. Louis Cardinals
On the other side of the diamond, we’ll have Lance Lynn as the starter. He is a complete opposite from Schwellenbach as we are very familiar with what Lynn is at this point. Lynn’s return to St. Louis has gone about as expected. He has a 4.08 ERA and FIP over 75 innings this season with 73 strikeouts.
Lynn ranks 79th out of 89 starters with 70+ IP in Stuff+. He is also 71st in Location+ and 83rd in Pitching+. His average fastball velocity has decreased for the fifth year in a row, which isn’t something you like to see from a guy who throws one of his fastball variations about 86% of the time this season.
Lynn ranks in the 47th percentile in strikeout rate and 48th percentile in whiff rate, both lows for him over the last few years. His 8.9% walk rate is the highest he has had since 2018 and his batted ball metrics still remain largely the same even with his decrease in stuff. Lynn ranks in the 37th percentile in barrel rate, 55th percentile in hard hit rate, and 49th percentile in average exit velocity.
The Cardinals’ offense has been around league average this season, ranking 16th in wRC+ and 17th in wOBA. Since the start of May, however, they rank 11th and 13th in these two categories as they got off to a really rough start.
St. Louis ranks 21st in OBP and walk rate while striking out 22.7% of the time (13th). They rank 25th in hard hit rate and exit velocity, as well as 28th in barrel rate. This lineup hasn’t been making quality contact or taking walks, making it hard to believe their overall output.
Going forward, the Cardinals will need to get more from the middle of their lineup with Arenado and Goldschmidt if they want to have a chance to make a run.
Braves vs. Cardinals
Betting Pick & Prediction
At this point in his career, I think Lance Lynn is clearly on a decline. He hasn’t imploded yet, and may not this season, but he’s not a guy that I’m looking to back against a really good Atlanta offense.
Schwellenbach hasn’t pitched much in his career (majors or minors), but it looks like he can be a serviceable arm for Atlanta down the stretch. The Cardinals’ offense hasn’t been overly impressive this season, so this should be a good matchup for the rookie.
With this line relatively even between the two teams, I’m looking to take the Braves on the first five innings moneyline at -110, as their offense is the best unit in this game.
Pick: Braves F5 Moneyline (-110) | Bet to (-115)
