Braves vs Padres Odds & Prediction | Saturday Betting Preview
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+114 | 7 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -198 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-135 | 7 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +164 |
The Atlanta Braves are beginning to round into form at the dish, taking five of their last seven games heading into Saturday, and they look to be a real problem for an ice-cold San Diego Padres team that's now dropped five in a row.
With Reynaldo Lopez headed to the hill for Atlanta, San Diego will have its hands full as it attempts to end its slide and get back into this series. The right-hander has dazzled this season with a 1.71 ERA and should enjoy life at Petco Park, where he can continue to pitch to fly balls.
The Padres will counter with Dylan Cease, a strikeout artist who's had a rough go of it since mid-May and has now yielded nine runs over his last two outings. Despite this, there's been Braves vs Padres odds movement on the over/under as the total has dipped from 7.5 to 7 (-120o /+100u). The Padres are also -135 moneyline favorites after opening as +110 underdogs.
Will Atlanta continue its run here? Let's dive deeper into Braves vs Padres in my MLB betting preview below.
Atlanta Braves
It's hard to take issue with Lopez at the moment. Yes, his 4.26 Expected ERA (xERA) may scare many away, but there are tangible ways in which he's been able to pitch out of trouble this season.
Lopez does own a troubling 88.6% strand rate this season after putting forward a mark of 81.3% last year — both of which leave the 71.8% league average in the dust. The key for him has been the way he's pitched under pressure, however, striking out nearly 31% of the batters he's faced with runners on and pitching to an extremely solid 29.2% hard-hit rate in these situations.
A strand rate like that is generally hard to survive over the course of a season, and you'd expect some slight regression, but it's not as if he's been lucking into outs with runners on base. His entire profile, too, would lead you to believe he's simply an effective pitcher.
Walks have been a concern for Lopez once again, even in lowering his rate of free passes from 12.2% to 9.4%. He's pitched to a large complement of fly balls, too, but he's allowed just six home runs all season.
He'll now look to attack a Padres offense that is dead last in wRC+ over the last week of play, fueled by an extremely poor .096 Isolated Power (ISO) and 4.6% walk rate.
San Diego Padres
I think the general public is beginning to see why I hate backing Cease, who's incredibly difficult pitcher to rely upon.
Yes, the strikeouts continue to come in bunches — nobody has ever denied that, or taken any issue with this part of his game. He remains somewhat of a liability when it comes to limiting walks, however, and as someone who gives up a wealth of contact in the air, he's prone to the long ball — allowing 15 this season to rate among the league's worst.
Pitching at the spacious Petco Park, Cease should theoretically be able to move past these issues at home, yet he's allowed seven homers in nine starts as compared to eight in 10 road outings. Even with his 3.69 ERA at home to put him on the better side of the splits, it's hard to say he's in a fantastic spot on Saturday.
Atlanta was able to blast three home runs in San Diego in Friday's win and has now clubbed 16 in its last eight games. This team should still be a slight liability against Cease given the strikeouts have piled up over the past couple of weeks, but those numbers are already beginning to trend down to the league average in the last seven days and the power numbers are not moving whatsoever.
Braves vs. Padres
Betting Pick & Prediction
Cease is in big trouble on Saturday. His Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG) sits above the league average by over 10 points and his 11.9% barrel rate is in the bottom 3% of all pitchers.
The Braves have put up a handsome .227 ISO in the past week and, as we noted, continue to leave the yard with regularity. With some positive plate discipline trends, I have full faith that they will hurt the right-hander once again and continue to make this summer a miserable one for him.
On the flip side, Lopez may be leaving many runners on base, but there's little reason to believe he'll have any more than marginal regression as the season wears on. We can't even be sure he'll allow too many runners here to begin with given the Padres' performance at the dish of late, which has featured a critically low number of walks.
Lopez should continue pitching well to fly balls in a massive yard while Cease gives up some big flies to the hottest offense in the league right now. I'm not seeing anything to indicate the Braves should be underdogs here, even on the road.
Pick: Braves ML (+120; DraftKings)
