Brewers vs Cubs Prediction
| Milwaukee Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-122 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | -1.5 +170 |
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+102 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | +1.5 -205 |
Jameson Taillon has been great in his return from the injured list. As he did in the past, he's kept the ball on the ground and is not walking many hitters.
This should help against a top-heavy Milwaukee Brewers lineup.
The Brewers have scheduled Colin Rea to start Thursday’s contest. Rea has been a good-luck merchant. He allows hard contact and does so often.
Both teams have comparable lineups and bullpens lately, so the Cubs should have value at “Wrigley Field North," as their fans would say.
Chicago Cubs
Taillon holds a sub-3.00 ERA and 3.66 xERA. He ranks in the 71st percentile in ground-ball rate, which is his best rate since 2019 when he threw limited innings.
For a pitcher who doesn't miss bats much, this is critical. He's about average when it comes to hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, so keeping the ball on the ground will lead to success.
He barely strikes anyone out, but he only walks 6.7% of hitters. Basically, he'll be able to limit his pitch count and potentially throw deep into this game.
The Cubs have a 96 wRC+ off of righties since May 1, which is below average. However, they own an 11% team walk rate with those same parameters, which could come into play in this game.
On the active roster, they do have six batters above a .325 xwOBA, so the majority of the lineup has a chance to be effective against Rea.
In relief, the Cubs have vastly improved lately, too. They have a 3.40 xFIP with a sub-8% walk rate and a 27.7% strikeout rate.
Ironically, much of its relief staff is plagued with injuries, so Chicago only has a few arms below a 4.00 xFIP.
However, since Taillon can throw six-plus innings, he'll help the short-handed relief arms.
Milwaukee Brewers
Rea owns a sub-4.00 ERA, but his xERA is 5.66. His average exit velocity is north of 90 mph with a walk rate over 8% and a strikeout rate of only 15.5%.
Strikeouts have taken a massive step back for Rea. Although he didn't miss many bats, more hard contact is not going to benefit him long-term. Since he's giving up more contact in general, his barrel rate has taken a jump.
The Brewers have a team wRC+ of 110 in May off of righties. However, Rhys Hoskins is on the injured list. He should be back next week, but they still have five bats over a .320 xwOBA on the active roster.
These hitters are more effective than the Cubs have been at the top of the order, so the lineups are a bit of a wash.
Adding on, the Brew Crew have been about league average against righties in the last two weeks, so this is more of an edge to Taillon on the hill.
The Brewers have been able to pitch out of the bullpen all year. In May, they have a 3.66 xFIP with a 23.8% strikeout rate and a sub-8% walk rate. They have seven relievers under a 4.00 xFIP, so they have an edge in relief.
That said, Taillon doesn't do as much to hurt himself on the mound, so the Brewers may not have as much of an edge here as some may think.
Brewers vs. Cubs
Betting Pick & Prediction
Taillon is the better starting pitcher in this game. Rea will see some negative regression eventually this year because of the hard contact he allows.
Taillon has been keeping the ball on the ground and can pitch deep into the game.
Both lineups are relatively even, and even though Milwaukee has the better relief staff, Taillon can negate its impact by throwing deeper into the game than Rea.
Bet the Cubs from -106 to -120.
